Blue State Flight Continues

NatMorton · Dec 23, 2023

From today’s WSJ on this week’s release of data from the Census Bureau:

The U.S. population increased by 1.6 million between July 2022 and July 2023, with states in the South accounting for about 1.4 million of the growth. Leading the boom were Texas (473,453), Florida (365,205), Georgia (116,077), South Carolina (90,600) and Tennessee (77,512). Driving their growth was migration from other states.

Eight states saw population declines, with the biggest in New York (-101,984), California (-75,423) and Illinois (-32,826). They can blame population flight. California lost the most residents to other states (-338,371), followed by New York (-216,778), Illinois (-83,839), New Jersey (-44,666), Massachusetts (-39,149) and Maryland (-30,905).

You don’t need artificial intelligence to spot what these states have in common: High taxes, burdensome business regulation and inflated energy and housing prices. Most donor states also have higher than average unemployment as a result of businesses moving or expanding their workforces in other states. California and New Jersey have both had significant increases in unemployment over the last year.

An interesting natural experiment has been Washington state, which gained tens of thousands of people from other states on net each year in the last decade. But since enacting a 7% capital-gains tax on higher earners in 2021, Washington has been losing residents to other states at an accelerating pace—15,276 this past year. Could that be a reason, or is Seattle’s crime problem a better explanation?

Source: here (paywall)

Does anyone believe these blue states will wake up and see where they’re heading?

Taylor · Dec 23, 2023

But... but... everyone at DP says nobody wants to live in Texas or Florida.

Turns out it's New York, California, and Illinois where people are fleeing in droves.

BirdinHand · Dec 23, 2023

Excellent!

NJ was getting a bit crowded anyway.

You guys can take our old people that are moving south because of our high cost of living - leaves more housing available for the young productive families to move into communities!

BirdinHand · Dec 23, 2023

Taylor said:
But... but... everyone at DP says nobody wants to live in Texas or Florida.

Turns out it's New York, California, and Illinois where people are fleeing in droves.

I promise you that no one in CA, NY, NJ, IL really cares if the old folks that want to make their retirement savings last longer move out.

There’s a housing shortage in everyone of the states mentioned that are losing people.

Let them leave - that way the younger, more productive and going to be contributing more to the state economy folks can move in.

US&THEM · Dec 23, 2023

NatMorton said:
From today’s WSJ on this week’s release of data from the Census Bureau:

Source: here (paywall)

Does anyone believe these blue states will wake up and see where they’re heading?

Here’s the thing when the population goes up and then the taxes for the services the public requires. Florida already having issues and Texas is seeing the same. Infrastructure matters.

WorldWatcher · Dec 23, 2023

Taylor said:
But... but... everyone at DP says nobody wants to live in Texas or Florida.

Turns out it's New York, California, and Illinois where people are fleeing in droves.

Actually it's a coordinated plan to move people from solid blue states to red'ish (soon to be purple) states so they can eventually shift the vote to solid blue.

It based on the plan that if you can't beat them in their own playground (the state) infiltrate and dominate.

Ba Wa Wa Wa Wa.

WW

NatMorton · Dec 23, 2023

US&THEM said:
Here’s the thing when the population goes up and then the taxes for the services the public requires. Florida already having issues and Texas is seeing the same. Infrastructure matters.

You have a point there. People seeming to be fleeing blue states faster than red states can accept them.

Taylor · Dec 23, 2023

BirdinHand said:
I promise you that no one in CA, NY, NJ, IL really cares if the old folks that want to make their retirement savings last longer move out.

There’s a housing shortage in everyone of the states mentioned that are losing people.

Let them leave - that way the younger, more productive and going to be contributing more to the state economy folks can move in.

If lots of "younger, more productive and going to be contributing more to the state economy folks" wanted to move in, we wouldn't be seeing a net loss.

ttwtt78640 · Dec 23, 2023

BirdinHand said:
Excellent!

NJ was getting a bit crowded anyway.

You guys can take our old people that are moving south because of our high cost of living - leaves more housing available for the young productive families to move into communities!

That (bolded above) was my first thought: as the population ages (and retires), the need (desire?) to live where the COL, taxes and wages are highest vanishes.

Bok Tuklo · Dec 23, 2023

Texas is booming, baby!

Now taking all offers in excess of 700K.

BirdinHand · Dec 23, 2023

Taylor said:
If lots of "younger, more productive and going to be contributing more to the state economy folks" wanted to move in, we wouldn't be seeing a net loss.

We could use more leaving!

NJ is the most densely populated state in the country…doesn’t hurt us one bit to have some folks moving out.

Bok Tuklo · Dec 23, 2023

ttwtt78640 said:
That (bolded above) was my first thought: as the population ages (and retires), the need (desire?) to live where the COL, taxes and wages are highest vanishes.

That may be a big part of it, and an aging population moving to low cost land values makes sense, but don’t underestimate opportunity. The Texas Triangle is a vibrant, mixed economy with a lot to offer young people.

BlueTex · Dec 23, 2023

Bok Tuklo said:
Texas is booming, baby!

Now taking all offers in excess of 700K.

Amen! In 5 years, you can buy my nice house in North Dallas.... Bids starting at $1.25M.... New Mexico/Colorado, here I come...

Slartibartfast · Dec 23, 2023

With the exception of California, which is its own class, another obvious detail is colder versus warmer states.

Bok Tuklo · Dec 23, 2023

BlueTex said:
Amen! In 5 years, you can buy my nice house in North Dallas.... Bids starting at $1.25M.... New Mexico/Colorado, here I come...

Same. But it is Maine for me!

I expect to be a well heeled climate refugee.

WorldWatcher · Dec 23, 2023

ttwtt78640 said:
That (bolded above) was my first thought: as the population ages (and retires), the need (desire?) to live where the COL, taxes and wages are highest vanishes.

Agreed.

It's been a model for generations, earn a living and acquire assets in a high cost area where you have higher income (home, pension, 401K's, etc.). Then retire and move to a lower COL area.

In prior years it remained (IMHO) relatively balanced, but with the larger Baby Boomer generation now making such shifts it results in measurable population change.

(And you left out that older people, just get tired of dealing with winter.)

WW

BlueTex · Dec 23, 2023

Bok Tuklo said:
Same. But it is Maine for me!

I expect to be a well heeled climate refugee.

I'm joking, I have plans to move to a small farm/ranch east of Dallas.... Much, much lower cost of living...

WorldWatcher · Dec 23, 2023

Bok Tuklo said:
That may be a big part of it, and an aging population moving to low cost land values makes sense, but don’t underestimate opportunity. The Texas Triangle is a vibrant, mixed economy with a lot to offer young people.

Some reading though I'm seeing over the last couple of years is that housing in Florida is going up. Not just to occupy, very real troubles in being able to find or afford insurance for their homes.

WW

US&THEM · Dec 23, 2023

NatMorton said:
You have a point there. People seeming to be fleeing blue states faster than red states can accept them.

It comes down to weather, older people are dine with winter and flee to warmer climates. Taxes matter as well, guess what they aren’t going down.

Bok Tuklo · Dec 23, 2023

BlueTex said:
I'm joking, I have plans to move to a small farm/ranch east of Dallas.... Much, much lower cost of living...

I am done with Texas summers. And since we are currently having a beautiful fall here at Christmas, it will be nice to have a winter.

ttwtt78640 · Dec 23, 2023

Bok Tuklo said:
That may be a big part of it, and an aging population moving to low cost land values makes sense, but don’t underestimate opportunity. The Texas Triangle is a vibrant, mixed economy with a lot to offer young people.

Keep that a secret, to keep land values (and property taxes) from soaring.

BirdinHand · Dec 23, 2023

And let’s face it - as these Boomers age in the red states, it is the red states that are going to have to provide medical care, etc for them.

A burden being removed from the blue states that they are leaving.

CaughtInThe · Dec 23, 2023

WorldWatcher said:
Actually it's a coordinated plan to move people from solid blue states to red'ish (soon to be purple) states so they can eventually shift the vote to solid blue.

It based on the plan that if you can't beat them in their own playground (the state) infiltrate and dominate.

Ba Wa Wa Wa Wa.

WW

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Taylor · Dec 23, 2023

BirdinHand said:
We could use more leaving!

NJ is the most densely populated state in the country…doesn’t hurt us one bit to have some folks moving out.

Lol - I didn't know opinions on NJ were so polarized...

NJ is the worst!

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Kind of funny.

BlueTex · Dec 23, 2023

It's not all happy times in Texas....

Blue State Flight Continues

Sometimes wrong

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