Had Biden withdrew sometime in 2023 and let there be a normal democratic primary to choose his successor, things may have been different. I’m sure if that were so, Harris wouldn’t have been the democratic nominee. But even so, whoever the nominee would have been that nominee would have been fighting history and Trump. No sitting president has won reelection nor has his replacement won the election when the sitting president had an overall job approval of below 50%. The list:
1952 Truman 33%, his replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower
1968 LBJ 43%, his replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon
1976 Ford 45%, Ford lost reelection to Carter
1980 Carter 37%, Carter lost reelection to Reagan
1992 G.H.W. Bush 34%, Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton
2008 G.W. Bush 28%, his replacement McCain lost to Obama
2020 Trump 43%, Trump lost reelection to Biden
2024 Biden 39%, his replacement Harris lost to Trump.
I think the republicans did the democrats a favor by running Trump. They should have won in a landslide instead of squeaking by. Biden’s numbers were very similar to Carter’s in 1980. Reagan won by 10 points, Trump by 1.5, Reagan received 489 electoral votes to Trump’s 312, Reagan carried 44 states, Trump 31. The republicans gained 35 house seats in 1980, the republicans with Trump lost 2 seats. The republicans gained 12 senate seats in 1980, the republicans gained 4 last year.
2024 was a year when a landslide akin to Reagan’s in 1980 should have happened, but didn’t. Which says a heck of a lot more about Trump than either Biden or Harris.