Biden lessens inflation

[99percenter]

I think that sighs of relief that inflation isn't an issue are premature. Here's the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that tracks CPI.

The following is the percentage increase from January to December of each year for the "All Urban Consumers CPI"
2010 1.15%
2011 2.47%
2012 1.29%
2013 1.20%
2014 0.38%
2015 1.20%
2016 1.90%
2017 1.51%
2018 1.35%
2019 2.09%
2020 0.97%
2021 4.36%

Mind you, the 2021 CPI is just through July. So the annual inflation rate will be much higher.

this is on trump

 

[highroller]

this is on trump

A presidency can’t be fully judged until policies the sitting president enacted take effect. I start judging at the two year mark.

So if there is hyperinflation, it would be on Trump this early into the presidency.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Check out wholesale lumber prices. That will give you an idea of how prices will go. As supply meets demand prices will return to a more normal range.

Our GDP growth has been stuck in the 2% to 3% range for a decade or more. GDP growth this year is over 6%.

It's been my experience that most food prices always rise during a crisis, but never come down. Milk and eggs tend to fluctuate, the rest stays up.

You know things are bad when a peach sells for $1.65 each. Meat has gotten so ridiculous, I refuse to buy a steak anymore. Not because I can't afford it, but cows just ain't worth that much.

 

[highroller]

It's been my experience that most food prices always rise during a crisis, but never come down. Milk and eggs tend to fluctuate, the rest stays up.

You know things are bad when a peach sells for $1.65 each. Meat has gotten so ridiculous, I refuse to buy a steak anymore. Not because I can't afford it, but cows just ain't worth that much.

Usually, what happens is the prices don’t come down, the incomes go up. You need to look at purchasing power as a percentage of income. We spend very little of our money on food.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Usually, what happens is the prices don’t come down, the incomes go up. You need to look at purchasing power as a percentage of income. We spend very little of our money on food.

I am sure that's true for most hourly wage employees. I own a small business and my competitive rates are what keep me busy. I am not sure this is the time to raise my hourly rates. I will be looking at it though.

 

[99percenter]

Meat has gotten so ridiculous, I refuse to buy a steak anymore. Not because I can't afford it, but cows just ain't worth that much.

Look on the bright side. Your heart thanks you.

 

[jmotivator]

Interesting anecdote from one of my Sisters-in-law.

She manages a chain grocery store in central VA, and has been struggling over the last few months to keep the shelves stocked. A lot of what she orders is on long wait lists, so the shelves go empty waiting for deliveries.

That I think we all see, as consumers, but what she has seen lately nobody really sees. When SNAP customers (aka Food Stamp recipients) come through the line, the cashier runs the card and sees the balance on the card in the process of ringing up the sale. All these people are regulars in her store.

What she is seeing now is a rapid increase in the balance on these cards. You might explain this by the emptying shelves, and the SNAP people just can't buy what they need. and probably there is some blame there. But that can't explain what she is seeing.

As a preface, a family of 3 with zero income is entitled to $535 a month in SNAP.. a family of 8, in case you are interested, received $1224 maximum....

The balances she is seeing on cards now are multiple thousands of dollars.. balances like $4,000, one customer had over $7,000 on their card. There are restrictions on what they can buy, and shelves are bare at times, but these customers were still managing to fill grocery carts with supplies... it's like they are now getting SNAP faster than they can spend it.

 

[DataPoint]

The are getting SNAP more than they can spend it at times.

 

[MTAtech]

wow

inflation down to .5%

and only reason for that is used car prices finally started to subside

food, gas, energy, and rent....you know the important shit...ALL MUCH HIGHER

so not going to jump for joy at a lessening rate at just under 5% right now

inflation is still out of control....

You need to learn the difference between CORE inflation and HEADLINE inflation. CORE does not include food and energy. Why? Because those prices fluctuate vastly and have no true meaning for inflation. Should the Fed tighten money because the price of butter increased only to fall a month or so later? No, of course not.

Inflation is far from "out of control."

 

[gdgyva]

You need to learn the difference between CORE inflation and HEADLINE inflation. CORE does not include food and energy. Why? Because those prices fluctuate vastly and have no true meaning for inflation. Should the Fed tighten money because the price of butter increased only to fall a month or so later? No, of course not.

Inflation is far from "out of control."

people CARE about headline inflation

here...read this

Food stocks perk up as price increases roll across the sector (NYSEARCA:PBJ)

The package food and beverage sectors are having a strong day after investor presentations today by General Mills and Kraft Heinz indicate the companies are raising prices. Read more.

seekingalpha.com

• The package food and beverage sectors are having a strong day after investor presentations today by General Mills (GIS +4.6%) and Kraft Heinz (KHC +4.4%) indicate the companies are offsetting inflation pressures through pricing actions and efficiency initiatives. The general sense is that more companies will follow with price increases in certain categories.
• Gainers include Simply Good Foods (SMPL +2.9%), Conagra Brands (CAG +2.0%), Post Holdings (POST +2.0%), B&G Foods (BGS +1.5%), Hostess Brands (TWNK +1.6%), J.M. Smucker (SJM +1.7%), Hain Celestial (HAIN +2.0%), BellRing Brands (BRBR +1.3%), Campbell Soup (CPB +1.2%), Celsius Holdings (CELH +1.5%), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP +1.3%), PepsiCo (PEP +1.1%) and Monster Beverage (MNST +1.3%).

As wages increase and costs increase for these companies, they will INCREASE their prices which will in turn make everything more expensive at the grocery stores, and at any restaurants you might avail yourself at

These companies are not going to take all of this in the shorts....the losers will be those on fixed incomes where their checks cant keep up with the inflationary spikes

 

[highroller]

These companies are not going to take all of this in the shorts....the losers will be those on fixed incomes where their checks cant keep up with the inflationary spikes

Who lives on a fixed income anymore? Everyone I know works, even retired people. The days of mom and dad retiring on their pension check are long gone.

 

[DataPoint]

MTAtech is correct about inflation.

 

[highroller]

MTAtech is correct about inflation.

 

[gdgyva]

Who lives on a fixed income anymore? Everyone I know works, even retired people. The days of mom and dad retiring on their pension check are long gone.

There are plenty of people trying to live on their social security and maybe a small pension

And inflation KILLS thems

 

[MTAtech]

people CARE about headline inflation

here...read this

Food stocks perk up as price increases roll across the sector (NYSEARCA:PBJ)

The package food and beverage sectors are having a strong day after investor presentations today by General Mills and Kraft Heinz indicate the companies are raising prices. Read more.

seekingalpha.com

• The package food and beverage sectors are having a strong day after investor presentations today by General Mills (GIS +4.6%) and Kraft Heinz (KHC +4.4%) indicate the companies are offsetting inflation pressures through pricing actions and efficiency initiatives. The general sense is that more companies will follow with price increases in certain categories.
• Gainers include Simply Good Foods (SMPL +2.9%), Conagra Brands (CAG +2.0%), Post Holdings (POST +2.0%), B&G Foods (BGS +1.5%), Hostess Brands (TWNK +1.6%), J.M. Smucker (SJM +1.7%), Hain Celestial (HAIN +2.0%), BellRing Brands (BRBR +1.3%), Campbell Soup (CPB +1.2%), Celsius Holdings (CELH +1.5%), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP +1.3%), PepsiCo (PEP +1.1%) and Monster Beverage (MNST +1.3%).

As wages increase and costs increase for these companies, they will INCREASE their prices which will in turn make everything more expensive at the grocery stores, and at any restaurants you might avail yourself at

These companies are not going to take all of this in the shorts....the losers will be those on fixed incomes where their checks cant keep up with the inflationary spikes

Yes, stocks move on short-term news. Food and energy move up and down in the short term and they are no indication of real inflation. We say the same thing in 2012. Inflation was still 2%.

Gasoline, which some are having a panic about, is about where it was in 2005.

 

[gdgyva]

Yes, stocks move on short-term news. Food and energy move up and down in the short term and they are no indication of real inflation. We say the same thing in 2012. Inflation was still 2%.

Gasoline, which some are having a panic about, is about where it was in 2005.

wages are a REAL indicator of inflation

wages are not creeping up....they are jumping up

Companies Pay New Workers Higher Wages, and Current Employees Ask, ‘What About Us?’

Companies across the U.S. are raising the pay floor for new employees in a difficult hiring market, prompting longtime workers to reassess their own compensation and get more.

www.wsj.com

Inflation wiped out America's pay raises

Companies big and small are raising wages to attract workers and hold onto employees as the economy revs back into gear. But those fatter paychecks aren't going as far, thanks to rising inflation.

www.cnn.com

but inflation is going up faster....

and at the lower end, it will cause and even bigger jump in prices everywhere

 

[bave]

A new survey from the FRB of NY is now saying inflation a year out is expected to be nearing 6% and 3 years out still north of 4%. Estimates from this survey have been revised upwards 6 months in a row.

Transitory my ass.

 

[MTAtech]

A new survey from the FRB of NY is now saying inflation a year out is expected to be near 6% and 3 years out still north of 4%. Estimates from this survey have been revised upwards 6 months in a row.

Transitory my ass.

You mean this:

Further Rise in Consumers’ Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

www.newyorkfed.org

You are reporting the Survey of Consumer Expectations. They aren't economists.

Let's wait for the Consumer Price Index data that will be released at 8:30 a.m.

 

[bave]

Linky?

Inflation Expectations Continue to Climb, New York Fed Survey Shows

Respondents see inflation at 5.2% a year from now and 4% in three years.

www.wsj.com

 

[bave]

They aren't economists.

Who said they are? At some point though you have to wonder if the FRB actually believes what they are publicly stating.

 

[MTAtech]

U.S. CPI Rose 0.3% in August Vs. July, Up 5.3% Vs. Year Ago

By Gwynn Guilford Consumer prices cooled in August, but still rose 5.3% from a year before as supplies and labor continued to drive up prices. Write to Gwynn...

www.marketwatch.com

Core inflation only rose 0.1%.

Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M03 Results

www.bls.gov

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in
August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items
index increased 5.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter
all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted
increase. The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent
increase in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the
indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its
smallest increase since February 2021. Along with the indexes for household
operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care
also rose in August. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and
motor vehicle insurance all declined over the month.

The all items index rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller
increase than the 5.4-percent rise for the period ending July. The index for all
items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, also a
smaller increase than the period ending July. The energy index rose 25.0 percent
over the last 12 months, and the food index increased 3.7 percent; both were
larger than the increases for the 12-month period ending July.

 

[bave]

PPI continues to rise...

 

[MTAtech]

PPI continues to rise...

and time continues to move forward.

 

[highroller]

PPI continues to rise...

And?….

 

[bave]

And?….

Pretty strong indicator that prices of goods will continue to rise in the future. PPI is just a leading indicator on inflation.