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Biden a Kick-Down Trump a Great Depression

bongsaway said:
Not hardly. Do you really believe the average investor has enough money in the stock market to move the markets at all? It's institutional traders who move the markets by trading hundreds of thousands of shares at a time, not ten shares here and there.

If you are 'investing' in the stock markets I suggest you have at least a twenty year goal in mind. Also most people who invest in the stock markets make over a hundred grand a year which excludes most folks.
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Anyone with a 401k has money in the stock market. That's trillions of dollars held by regular working people.
 
Tahuyaman said:
How was my response "clueless"?
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You are counting all 401's together and trillions might be stretching things??? Just how much do you think the average working person making fifty grand a year with a wife two kids and a house have left to invest each year? If you have a 401 and liquidate it, I would bet my bottom dollar the markets don't budge. 401's are a pittance to people with big money.
 
bongsaway said:
You are counting all 401's together and trillions might be stretching things??? Just how much do you think the average working person making fifty grand a year with a wife two kids and a house have left to invest each year? If you have a 401 and liquidate it, I would bet my bottom dollar the markets don't budge. 401's are a pittance to people with big money.
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401k's are in fact invested in the stock market. This also amounts to trillions of dollars. That is not stretching thing.
 
Jay59 said:
Actually, not close.


Some of this is good. The super rich and endowments tend to be in more conservative investments, eg bonds and real estate. However, 401(k) is a major player in the markets. That money is mostly middle class retirement savings.


Here you drift. institutional investors can and do switch from stocks to bonds. There is much more money in bonds at any given time, much of it in government bonds.


There is place to go, quickly and easily.


This is simply wrong. Most mutual fund must stay in stocks, but other institutional money moves across the street to the bond market.


They take it out to pay major expenses or for large ticket purchases. A great deal of money moves from the markets to real estate.
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Unlike projections about what might happen, this isn't a debate. There is no question. We've run the "experiment" and seen the results. Our economy is in a depression while the stock market is at all time highs. You're arguing that gravity doesn't work as you fall out of a plane.

You disagree with facts because you think some of it is good? Good or bad doesn't really matter, this is what IS. You think people can affect the market by pulling money out to buy a big ticket item? Please. What's that a 5 million dollar jet? A 10 million dollar yacht? That's not real money. University endowments are 10s of billions of dollars. The richest 400 Americans are worth 3 Trillion. And you think someone deciding to buy a boat is going to make a dent in the market? We're talking about money and power on a scale you can't even begin to comprehend.

Last quarter's numbers mean that we're in a depression. That's not hyperbole. We've lost 2-3Trillion in GDP growth and tens of millions of jobs. The stock market has not reflected that. It operates independently from day to day economics because the entities in the market are independent from day to day economics. Bonds are just another investment. Investors/Investments is a closed system that is macro immune from day to day economics because the investors in the market are immune from economic downturns. It's just supply and demand and thanks to decades of Trickle Down Economics the supply of investment money far exceeds what we can invest.

What is wrong with Trump supporters? How can you be wrong on literally everything? Why must you make ridiculous arguments about points that are so obviously correct just because you think the person who said it is in a different "tribe" than you? We're in 5 = 4 territory here. The economy is in a depression, the stock market is near all time highs. Why would any rational person think that this was a point they should argue against?
 
bongsaway said:
Republicans have been in charge for several market crashes. Hoover, reagan, W and I suspect trump before he leaves office. What's holding up the stock markets house of cards is beyond me?
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It’s simple.

You can’t get a decent rate of return on your money anywhere else. So Wall Street bids the prices up.
 
Tahuyaman said:
Reagan started deficit spending? You do realize that only the congress controls spending, right?
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Reagan tripled the national debt in eight years.

One of the things. the GOP ran on in 1980, was the claim that they were going to stop runaway deficit spending from “borrow and spend” Democrats.

Reagan went on to become the biggest spender in US history to that date. A fact that was obvious to the naked eye to anyone living around Washington DC. The “beltway bandits” had a field day. They did again in the 2000’s.

“Trickle down” economics was an off the wall idea from a crackpot economist. It’s failure was evident by 1984. So was the soaring debt.

The runaway deficits that every GOP Administration has run since 1980 started with Reagan’s 1981 tax bill. It was Reagan’s idea.

He was willing to explode borrowing as a policy. A policy every GOP President since has adopted.

They use the tax cut gimmick every time to fool the rubes into believing that they’re getting something. So., while Jeffrey Epstein and Robert Mercer get new yachts, you get dinner at Applebee’s. That’s how GOP tax cuts work.

And why Wall Street loves them.
 
TomFitz said:
It’s simple.

You can’t get a decent rate of return on your money anywhere else. So Wall Street bids the prices up.
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Doesn't ring true.

Presently the bubble is only forming and tax break and covid relief and stimulus are fueling the sustain.
 
TomFitz said:
Reagan tripled the national debt in eight years.

One of the things. the GOP ran on in 1980, was the claim that they were going to stop runaway deficit spending from “borrow and spend” Democrats.

Reagan went on to become the biggest spender in US history to that date. A fact that was obvious to the naked eye to anyone living around Washington DC. The “beltway bandits” had a field day. They did again in the 2000’s.

“Trickle down” economics was an off the wall idea from a crackpot economist. It’s failure was evident by 1984. So was the soaring debt.

The runaway deficits that every GOP Administration has run since 1980 started with Reagan’s 1981 tax bill. It was Reagan’s idea.

He was willing to explode borrowing as a policy. A policy every GOP President since has adopted.

They use the tax cut gimmick every time to fool the rubes into believing that they’re getting something. So., while Jeffrey Epstein and Robert Mercer get new yachts, you get dinner at Applebee’s. That’s how GOP tax cuts work.

And why Wall Street loves them.
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Reagan didn’t add one cent to the debt. Congress did that. They are the only ones who can do that.

The tax rate cuts during the Teagan era led to a doubling of revenues
 
Tahuyaman said:
Reagan didn’t add one cent to the debt. Congress did that. They are the only ones who can do that.

The tax rate cuts during the Teagan era led to a doubling of revenues
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Reagan signed the Budget.
 
Mithros said:
Unlike projections about what might happen, this isn't a debate. There is no question. We've run the "experiment" and seen the results. Our economy is in a depression while the stock market is at all time highs. You're arguing that gravity doesn't work as you fall out of a plane.
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You're right that it is not in debate. It is a simple fact that this is not a depression.

You disagree with facts because you think some of it is good?
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I don't disagree with facts. You seem to have a short supply, witness the above.

Good or bad doesn't really matter, this is what IS. You think people can affect the market by pulling money out to buy a big ticket item?
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that's not what was said, but feel free to keep digging.

Please. What's that a 5 million dollar jet? A 10 million dollar yacht? That's not real money. University endowments are 10s of billions of dollars. The richest 400 Americans are worth 3 Trillion. And you think someone deciding to buy a boat is going to make a dent in the market? We're talking about money and power on a scale you can't even begin to comprehend.
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You seem to be under the impression that only big institutions matter and that they are invested only in the stock market. This is rather bizarre.

Last quarter's numbers mean that we're in a depression. That's not hyperbole.
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It's pure hyperbole. Saying it isn't does not change the basic fact that one quarter cannot make a depression.

We've lost 2-3 Trillion in GDP growth and tens of millions of jobs. The stock market has not reflected that. It operates independently from day to day economics because the entities in the market are independent from day to day economics. Bonds are just another investment. Investors/Investments is a closed system that is macro immune from day to day economics because the investors in the market are immune from economic downturns. It's just supply and demand and thanks to decades of Trickle Down Economics the supply of investment money far exceeds what we can invest.
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More factually challenged ranting. Was there a point?

What is wrong with Trump supporters?
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Nothing.

How can you be wrong on literally everything?
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You are not wrong on literally everything, though it does seem like it occasionally.

Why must you make ridiculous arguments about points that are so obviously correct just because you think the person who said it is in a different "tribe" than you?
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More bizarreness. You must be referring to alternate facts. I don't get the memo for those.

We're in 5 = 4 territory here.
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That's a good description of everything you just said. Bravo.

The economy is in a depression, the stock market is near all time highs. Why would any rational person think that this was a point they should argue against?
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Any rational person would think that the economy is not in a depression, for the good reason that the economy is not in a depression. The facts keep tripping you up.
 
If we are in a depression it’s been self created in an unconstitutional
and fraudulent manner.
 
bongsaway said:
You are counting all 401's together and trillions might be stretching things??? Just how much do you think the average working person making fifty grand a year with a wife two kids and a house have left to invest each year? If you have a 401 and liquidate it, I would bet my bottom dollar the markets don't budge. 401's are a pittance to people with big money.
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He is not wrong. Tahuyaman is simply pointing out that 401ks represent a massive share of the stock market held by millions of individual employees and retirees, and the combined value of all 401k plans combined currently stands at $5.6 trillion.
 
Aunt Antifa said:
THe stock market has nothing to do with the health of our economy anymore. It’s just rich people betting on the country’s misery and mostly winning.
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The reason the Stock Market is so High is Money isn't worth anything. The wealthy are bidding up stocks because intrest on money doesn't even keep up with inflation; money in the bank is worth less, after interest, when you took it out than when you put it in. Of course the stock market is a house of cards that will fall in on itself; it always has.
 
Felis Leo said:
He is not wrong. Tahuyaman is simply pointing out that 401ks represent a massive share of the stock market held by millions of individual employees and retirees, and the combined value of all 401k plans combined currently stands at $5.6 trillion.
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Ok, it's still a pittance. Is everyone who owns a 401 going to sell at the same time? No, of course not. Again, eighty percent of the stocks are owned by ten percent of the people. That leaves twenty percent for those with 401's, a pittance. And I would venture to say most who own a 401 at best have a couple hundred grand in there.
 
bongsaway said:
Republicans have been in charge for several market crashes. Hoover, reagan, W and I suspect trump before he leaves office. What's holding up the stock markets house of cards is beyond me?
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The stock market is no longer an investment vehicle. That is what is propping it up. The stock market is a visit to the race track or your favorite casino. Its people betting on the price of the stock, not the value of the companies represented there. The stock market is not the economy. Add to that, negative interest rates and you have the story. Are you going to invest in bonds and get less money back at maturity than you put in????? I don't think so.
 
jnug said:
The stock market is no longer an investment vehicle. That is what is propping it up. The stock market is a visit to the race track or your favorite casino. Its people betting on the price of the stock, not the value of the companies represented there. The stock market is not the economy.
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I couldn't agree more especially with so many trades being tripped by computers and not humans.
 
Jay59 said:
You're right that it is not in debate. It is a simple fact that this is not a depression.


I don't disagree with facts. You seem to have a short supply, witness the above.


that's not what was said, but feel free to keep digging.


You seem to be under the impression that only big institutions matter and that they are invested only in the stock market. This is rather bizarre.


It's pure hyperbole. Saying it isn't does not change the basic fact that one quarter cannot make a depression.


More factually challenged ranting. Was there a point?


Nothing.


You are not wrong on literally everything, though it does seem like it occasionally.


More bizarreness. You must be referring to alternate facts. I don't get the memo for those.


That's a good description of everything you just said. Bravo.


Any rational person would think that the economy is not in a depression, for the good reason that the economy is not in a depression. The facts keep tripping you up.
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Depression Definition
A depression is defined as a downturn in economic activity lasting several years OR resulting in at least a 10% reduction in real GDP growth.

The US has experienced a 10% reduction in real GDP over the first two quarters this year.


Again... you completely miss the main point. The economy cratered. The stock market didn't. The economy was the worst it has ever been in modern history. The stock market is near all time highs. To argue that one is somehow a good indicator of the other is idiotic.
 
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Mithros said:
A depression is defined as a downturn in economic activity lasting several years OR resulting in at least a 10% reduction in real GDP growth.
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If you are going to get a definition, at least get a good one. Even with this one, you fail, because you cut off the period in the definition, which is a full year. Shady.

What's really funny is that you got the definition from an investment site, which you claim are idiotic.

The US has experienced a 10% reduction in real GDP over the first two quarters this year.
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Arguably true.

Again... you completely miss the main point. The economy cratered.
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False. The economy did not crater. What happened is sometimes called a shock, ie a large, non-repeating influence. The key being non-repeating.

The stock market didn't.
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The Stock market used the correct definition.

The economy was the worst it has ever been in modern history.
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Another false. The economy had one of the worst shocks in modern history, but it is fundamentally sound.

The stock market is near all time highs. To argue that one is somehow a good indicator of the other is idiotic.
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What is idiotic is saying the market is not a leading indicator. It's in all the textbooks.
 
Jay59 said:
If you are going to get a definition, at least get a good one. Even with this one, you fail, because you cut off the period in the definition, which is a full year. Shady.

What's really funny is that you got the definition from an investment site, which you claim are idiotic.


Arguably true.


False. The economy did not crater. What happened is sometimes called a shock, ie a large, non-repeating influence. The key being non-repeating.


The Stock market used the correct definition.


Another false. The economy had one of the worst shocks in modern history, but it is fundamentally sound.


What is idiotic is saying the market is not a leading indicator. It's in all the textbooks.
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The plane didn't crater, It just suffered a temporary non positive AGL which caused a shock (ie a non-repeating event). After that the altitude leveled out. If you exclude the few minute decent and impact, it was the smoothest flight any of the passengers had ever experienced.
 
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