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(Axios) Trump says short-term recession OK: "This is a transition period"

Chomsky said:
I scoped-out the response on a MAGA website public comment section, and the results have been pretty amazing - but I suppose expected.

Some are going all-in on supporting a recession, claiming the resultant crash will "reset prices to 1980's levels", which they believe is a good thing and "part of the plan".

There's even a theory that a crash will cause the demise of the Democratic Party, as "they will be exposed for all the damage they did to the economy". They see this is a worthwhile highly desired endeavor.

MAGA will be MAGA, I suppose.
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Good grief Dear Leader could drop an anvil on MAGAs and they'd say it was what they always and "TAKE THAT LIBZ HAW HAW!"
 
iguanaman said:
That is called a depression and I fear you are right.
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My understanding is Depression requires a 10% drop in GDP, but I'm just tossing this out there to add to the discussion.
 
Chomsky said:
Here:
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"Pushed for more" whatever that means. We have no idea what was said. Either they're exaggerating, or they left out the pertinent quote. Either way it's a poorly written article.
 
My children aren't as gullible as MAGA.
 
Lycanthrope said:
Good grief Dear Leader could drop an anvil on MAGAs and they'd say it was what they always and "TAKE THAT LIBZ HAW HAW!"
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You can learn a lot about the state we're in by recon-ing MAGA World. They are in charge, after all.
 
Taylor said:
"Pushed for more" whatever that means. We have no idea what was said. Either they're exaggerating, or they left out the pertinent quote. Either way it's a poorly written article.
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Given that Axios used quotes, I do believe these are indeed Trump's actually words.

I get that context & delivery matter, but obviously the video cannot be released until the embargo is lifted.

I suppose we'll find-out soon enough, in less than 24 hours.

If the video supports the OP transcript, the matter will probably circulate in the media-sphere pretty well, come Monday.
 
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Chomsky said:
Interesting.

While Trump continues to regularly worsen, it's only been several pts the last month.

I suppose when you're that far down, there isn't much more to go. Or, so we shall see!

(my suspicion is we may be nearing the 'MAGA' floor)
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i suspect you are right. we are reaching the "trump could shoot someone and I wont care" group level.
 
watsup said:
Okay, let’s not get too excited about this. Suppose that next couple of months, Trump and Xi do make a tariff deal that adjusts the trade imbalance in the favor of the US. Mass relief. The stock market will surge. Prices will come back down. Trump will declare triumph. This is possible. It will then provide the impetus for Congressional Republicans to push through their huge budget bill to screw the poor people and vastly increase the wealth of the elite and the Trump middle class will be ecstatic. It could easily happen.
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We will eventually work out some new normal, but there's no going back.

Some of the problem is that Trump is erratic.
As long as Trump is in power, he will be a downward pressure on America's financial outlook.
 
Taylor said:
"Pushed for more" whatever that means. We have no idea what was said. Either they're exaggerating, or they left out the pertinent quote. Either way it's a poorly written article.
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if you're interested, it's a video available online
 
Step 1: Deny that it's real
Step 2: Downplay it and deflect

It's basically the same playbook over and over.
 
Simon W. Moon said:
We will eventually work out some new normal, but there's no going back.

Some of the problem is that Trump is erratic.
As long as Trump is in power, he will be a downward pressure on America's financial outlook.
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I think Trump's actions, pro or con, may freeze substantial Capital Investment projects during his term.

There's simply too much gross uncertainty.

Remember, the business default is to produce overseas. The numbers simply don't work here. So Trump has to convince business he will make it profitable to relocate & produce here. I don't see Trump exuding the perceptions of the gravitas or stability to accomplish that.
 
Chomsky said:
I think Trump's actions, pro or con, may freeze substantial Capital Investment projects during his term.

There's simply too much gross uncertainty.

Remember, the business default is to produce overseas. The numbers simply don't work here. So Trump has to convince business he will make it profitable to relocate & produce here. I don't see Trump exuding the perceptions of the gravitas or stability to accomplish that.
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unless he can convince businesses that there will be forever, significant tariffs, which basically means forever, significant inflation increases.
 
It is difficult to predict what will specifically happen over the next two or more years, mainly because no one knows what Trump will do from day to day, including Trump himself. As he did in business, he has not developed strategic plans but goes to the office "to see what happens" that day. And as we have seen, his focus on any single issue lasts only so long as he isn't checked, upon which he creates another issue and crisis to vent his frustration.

There is no Tariff gameplan, nor a particular reason that he started with either exaggerated, disingenuous, or fully made-up grievances against America's three largest trading partners (Canada, Mexico, and China), nor any rational explanation as to why he violated the terms of his own North American Treaty of just a few years ago - already littered with protectionism especially against Mexico.

And exactly how and why that morphed into a massive tariff on the world based on magical and flawed math and a dumpster full of outright lies about it being reciprocal remains to be justified as either coherent or thoughtful.

And today no one, including Trump, knows what goal he has other than to "win" in negotiation. Some Maga mad hat-ers believe that Trump wants to reduce trade barriers, and therefore has a goal of removing tariffs between nations - sorta dumb assumption given that approach has failed to move Trump where it has been suggested by a few other nations.

Other MAGA muttonheads suggest his "goal" is to reshore manufacturing to the US, except that theory is equally bizarre in that it is incoherent and irreconcilable with his massive and broad tariff policy. Any firm located outside the US, most of whom are located in countries that DON'T tariff imported raw materials and capital goods can already produce less expensive goods even if all other cost factors were equal (including their wages). To "reshore" in the US is now an added tax expense, equal to some companies profit margins, and not exactly an inducement.

Moreover, even in Trump's fantasy world many businesses simply can't "relocate" and the products they sell can't be grown, or only grown seasonally, or mined in the US. For example: "Mexico, Canada, and China supply 45% of US food and beverage imports. Mexico dominates fruits and vegetables, Canada leads in meat and potatoes, and China is significant for seafood and processed foods. Other key partners include Brazil (coffee, beef), Chile (salmon, grapes), and Italy/France (wine, cheese)." (Grok)

Needless to say, all of this is now tariffed at 20 percent or more from those three countries. And with 94 percent of seafood being imports, well, you get the picture. So no this has nothing to do with reshoring coffee, coca, spices, potatoes, seafood, mangos, beef, etc.

And, I might add, US beef is also a part of a supply chain, herds that are calved in Canada and Mexico, 1.2 million of which are then imported to the US for finishing. Yep, now 25 percent higher in cost to US feed lots and butchers.

NO, there is only one real purpose to the mad King, to feed his irrational obessions. Make the US dependent on a "consumption tax", massive tariff increases, while providing magical income tax cuts that will not compensate for the increased cost of living for those not in higher imcome tax brackets.

And, for course, find another excuse to spend.
 
ncguy said:
unless he can convince businesses that there will be forever, significant tariffs, which basically means forever, significant inflation increases.
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Trump first has to convince them he's stable. And, that the next administration will continue his "stable" policies.

I don't see it happening to any substantive degree. If real long-term capital expense investment will occur in any substantive manner, I'm thinking it will be after Trump's term is over.

That's not to say there won't be plenty of talk and lip-service. Everyone's going to be bragging and advertising about making stuff in America again!

But we saw all this with Foxconn. The government took the land, farms, houses, and businesses of working-class Wisconsinites, and gave Foxconn the land and development credits. But nothing much got built, except an unused road and an empty building!

Then:

-1x-1.webp


Now:

Foxconn_Mahoney_drone01.jpg


Source:

Property owners near Foxconn say they were misled. Now their homes are gone. - Wisconsin Watch

Homeowners near the Foxconn facility say they sold their homes for road widenings that were either abandoned, embellished — or never planned.
wisconsinwatch.org

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All the raised visible land in the second image was citizens' homes, businesses, and small farms.

The government took it & gave it to Foxconn, and now all there is in the place of all those lives' work and possessions is an unused road and a mostly abandoned building.

Pardon me, if I'm skeptical.
 
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