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Are we headed for a recession?

Are we headed for a recession?

  • no, the economy is great cause Bushie said so

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    6
  • Poll closed .

alphieb

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Things look a littled assorted to say the least for our economy. What do you think next quarter results will show? Recession or not.
 

alphieb

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I meant our Health care System is doing wonderful.
 

Kandahar

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At this point in time I don't see many signs that we're about to enter another recession. However, if we do end up having to go to war with Iran, then we'll most likely be in a recession because the spike in oil prices would cause inflation.
 

Mikkel

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I don't really agree with any of them, but I definitely disagreed with the first two, and the last one, so I went with door #3. Aside from the fact that we have too many uninsured people, I think it's a pretty accurate statement, though I don't see how it affects our economy that much.

We just have to get past these bursting bubbles and get some sort of closure or something on 9/11 finally. As long as there are no major unexpected events (ie terrorist attacks, hurricaines, wars, etc.) I don't see a reason for us to go into another recession.
 

ngdawg

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Headed? Gas prices are rising again, housing is through the proverbial roof, beef is only for the rich and the wantads cover half of the number of pages that they covered a year ago. Not to mention the increased deductions from our paychecks, the lack of work that would enable OT and increased hours....
Headed? Honey, we're IN it from where I sit.
 

Navy Pride

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No matter how much the democrats try to talk to down the economy it is booming:

1. Interest rates are still at a 50 year low.....
2. Inflation is almost non existent..........
3. Unemployment is at a 25 year low.....
4. More people own their own homes now then in any time in history..
5. The GNP is at a all time high
6. Construction is booming.......
 

Lantzolot

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ngdawg said:
Headed? Gas prices are rising again, housing is through the proverbial roof, beef is only for the rich and the wantads cover half of the number of pages that they covered a year ago. Not to mention the increased deductions from our paychecks, the lack of work that would enable OT and increased hours....
Headed? Honey, we're IN it from where I sit.
Gas rising!?! NO! Its only been rising for the last century.

Perhaps the want ads cover half the pages that they covered before because everyone can afford new items rather than used? or that maybe employers are satisfied with their employees? I dont know maybe your local economy is going down the drain but nationwide it is looking good to me.
 

Navy Pride

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Lantzolot said:
Gas rising!?! NO! Its only been rising for the last century.

Perhaps the want ads cover half the pages that they covered before because everyone can afford new items rather than used? or that maybe employers are satisfied with their employees? I dont know maybe your local economy is going down the drain but nationwide it is looking good to me.
Democrats believe if you keep saying something over and over again, even if it is and outright lie that the American people will believe it.........As the 2004 presidential election showed the American people are to smart for that........
 

Deegan

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Not from where I am sitting, and I sell to every state in the nation, as well as internationally. Things look good, but sure as you mention a recession, people will tighten their purse strings, so let's be careful here, and not cause undo stress.;)
 

Harshaw

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alphieb said:
Things look a littled assorted to say the least for our economy. What do you think next quarter results will show? Recession or not.
And what, exactly, looks "assorted"? A single quarter of growth that was lower than preceding quarters, a figure which will almost undoubtedly be revised up?

Perhaps you should go quarter-by-quarter for the booming Clinton economy and see that several quarters during that boom posted lower growth than Q4 2005, as in, less than 1%.

Why, I read a Reuters story in the New York Times just a week or two ago warning of the -- get this -- dangers of full employment.

Gasoline, BTW, when adjusted for inflation, costs less than it did in 1958. Not that gas prices measure the economy in any way.
 

ngdawg

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Lantzolot said:
Gas rising!?! NO! Its only been rising for the last century.

Perhaps the want ads cover half the pages that they covered before because everyone can afford new items rather than used? or that maybe employers are satisfied with their employees? I dont know maybe your local economy is going down the drain but nationwide it is looking good to me.
I meant the want ads re: jobs...and no one I know has a decent one, many of us have had to settle for part time low-paying ones.
Yea, interest rates are low-on mortgages. Most credit card companies hover from 17-22% and no longer request 1% plus interest minimum, they're asking closer to 5% plus.
Building is booming? Sure, if you can afford a McMansion. My house is outrageously valued, but I can't go buy another and most around here who entertained that idea quickly thought again. (I live in NJ). Entire factories are closing and moving their work to Central America, leaving those with 20-30 years under their belts wondering WTF? as they try to make it on unemployment and/or smaller paychecks. NJ has lost a Ford factory, Revlon and Chevy in less than 10 years and that's just in my county.
Unemployment as a whole might be down, but ask how many are doing as well as they did 10-15 years ago. Hell, 5 years ago. When salaries can't keep up with the basic costs of living, whether nationally or locally, it's a recession and in NJ, it's here, unless you're in the upper 5% earners.
 

Mikkel

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Harshaw said:
Why, I read a Reuters story in the New York Times just a week or two ago warning of the -- get this -- dangers of full employment.
There have been serious economic studies that suggest that full employment CAN be a bad thing. (I can't give you any links because I read them a long time ago and don't have them at my disposal)

Basically, the theory goes that if unemployment falls too much below 5% then the available workforce is too small to support a growing economy. Startup businesses are stunted because they can't afford to pay new employees very well, and therefore cannot find enough people looking for jobs.

This theory is good and bad for both sides of the political spectrum. If such studies hold true, then it somewhat justifies that conservative governmental layoffs can be good for an overemployed economy (i.e. Margaret Thatcher and Redundancy, to put an international spin on it). On the other hand, if it is GOOD to have an unemployment rate of around 5%, then Liberals are able to justify a Welfare system to support the unemployed 5% of the population.

Since the Unemployment rate was around 4.9% last month, it will be interesting to see if the theory holds true.

also, fyi, just because something is printed in the NYT doesn't mean you should think it's BS. Just as when I read the Wall Street Journal, I try not to judge too quickly; try not to let your personal bias outweigh that of the media.
 

Harshaw

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Mikkel said:
There have been serious economic studies that suggest that full employment CAN be a bad thing. (I can't give you any links because I read them a long time ago and don't have them at my disposal)

Basically, the theory goes that if unemployment falls too much below 5% then the available workforce is too small to support a growing economy. Startup businesses are stunted because they can't afford to pay new employees very well, and therefore cannot find enough people looking for jobs.

This theory is good and bad for both sides of the political spectrum. If such studies hold true, then it somewhat justifies that conservative governmental layoffs can be good for an overemployed economy (i.e. Margaret Thatcher and Redundancy, to put an international spin on it). On the other hand, if it is GOOD to have an unemployment rate of around 5%, then Liberals are able to justify a Welfare system to support the unemployed 5% of the population.

Since the Unemployment rate was around 4.9% last month, it will be interesting to see if the theory holds true.

also, fyi, just because something is printed in the NYT doesn't mean you should think it's BS. Just as when I read the Wall Street Journal, I try not to judge too quickly; try not to let your personal bias outweigh that of the media.

I didn't say it was BS, and I understand the arguments.

My point is that if they're running stories about the dangers of full employment, it means unemployment is very, very low.
 

Mikkel

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Harshaw said:
I didn't say it was BS, and I understand the arguments.

My point is that if they're running stories about the dangers of full employment, it means unemployment is very, very low.
Ah, very well. I misinterpreted your statement then. Your point is correct.

An interesting side note that I saw in the news today was this report that Americans are saving much less than they have in the past 70 years. In fact, we're spending more, on average, than we earn. This is a phenomenon that hasn't been true since the Great Depression. I'm not saying that this has a direct correlation to whether or not we're in a recession, but I don't think any economic similarities between today and the Depression is such a good sign.

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2006/Americans-Saving-Less8jan06.htm
 

Scarecrow Akhbar

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Always. Recessions are as inevitable as a woman's menstrual period, except pregancy and menopause aren't options.
 

Goobieman

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Ecomomies go in cycles, so another recession is virtually guaranteed.

However, unless some rather large extra-economic event interceedes, there isnt any reason to think we'll see one for several (4-6) years.
 
T

The Real McCoy

Navy Pride said:
No matter how much the democrats try to talk to down the economy it is booming:
What about Libertarians? Or does anyone opposed to any views of Rush Limbaugh fall under liberal/democrat?


Navy Pride said:
1. Interest rates are still at a 50 year low.....
The Fed raised rates like 13 times in the last 3 years.



Navy Pride said:
3. Unemployment is at a 25 year low.....
More like a 5 year low...


Navy Pride said:
4. More people own their own homes now then in any time in history..
More people are alive than at any time in history.


Navy Pride said:
5. The GNP is at a all time high
So is our population.
 

Stinger

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alphieb said:
Things look a littled assorted to say the least for our economy. What do you think next quarter results will show? Recession or not.
Are you kidding? Why would you think that we are even close to a recession? Our ecomomy is booming.
 

Stinger

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Actually the lower unemployment will not pressure wages to rise. As far as welfare, well during the last too economic booms the Democrats wanted to INCREASE welfare.
 

Stinger

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Mikkel said:
An interesting side note that I saw in the news today was this report that Americans are saving much less than they have in the past 70 years. In fact, we're spending more, on average, than we earn. This is a phenomenon that hasn't been true since the Great Depression. I'm not saying that this has a direct correlation to whether or not we're in a recession, but I don't think any economic similarities between today and the Depression is such a good sign.

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2006/Americans-Saving-Less8jan06.htm
I heard the story on the radio and noted they were saying that "after tax savings" are at a low rate. I assume that means after 401K and IRA's funded. Those two are the two largest means of savings for most people, in fact 401K's now outpace pension plans as far as how much money is plugged into them. In fact more people are invested in them market than at any time and more and more middle clase are invested. My wife and I by a hugh amount put more money in both our 401k's and IRA's, our after tax savings is only to maintain an emergency fund for sudden expenses. So I'm not sure what exactly this study was citing.
 

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The Real McCoy said:
What about Libertarians? Or does anyone opposed to any views of Rush Limbaugh fall under liberal/democrat?

The Fed raised rates like 13 times in the last 3 years.

More like a 5 year low...

More people are alive than at any time in history.

So is our population.
I think the interest rates are going to become a huge issue in the next few years, maybe months. So many people took out APR mortgages without consideration as to what they would do if the rates climbed. I know of few people who are now scrambling because they did just that. They borrowed so much on their house at such a low rate they now owe more on the home then it's actually worth. The rates have begun to climb so has their monthly payment. I know of one couple who are actively trying to sell their home because they no longer can afford the monthly payments. And their loan is set up so their only paying interest, no principle at all.

Interest rates haven't even gone up that much. What's going to happen if they climb higher? This could really snowball. So many people are living month to month with basically no savings.

And yes, homeownership is at an all time high every year.
 

Mikkel

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Stinger said:
I heard the story on the radio and noted they were saying that "after tax savings" are at a low rate. I assume that means after 401K and IRA's funded. Those two are the two largest means of savings for most people, in fact 401K's now outpace pension plans as far as how much money is plugged into them. In fact more people are invested in them market than at any time and more and more middle clase are invested. My wife and I by a hugh amount put more money in both our 401k's and IRA's, our after tax savings is only to maintain an emergency fund for sudden expenses. So I'm not sure what exactly this study was citing.
That's a good point. I'd be interested to see if people are switching from traditional investment plans, such as stocks or money market accounts, to government regulated savings plans such as 401k's and IRA's. If so, it could mean that the government will have an even larger investment in the nation's economy, which isn't all that bad.
 

Pacridge

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I just saw one of the funniest gags on SNL I've seen in years. Alright maybe not that funny, but dead on. Steve Martins hosting, always good. Had a skit, a mock up of those "how to get out of credit card debit commercials." They were hawking a book called "Don't buy stuff you can't afford." It was a free book, Martin wanted to know if he could put it on his credit card.

Seriously this is a lot of what's wrong with this country. Our household debt ratio is out of sight and climbing. I read a story the other day about a couple in No. Cal who had over 75K in credit card debt and something like 2K in savings. WTF are people thinking?
 
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