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How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?
George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState
Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill
Bernie has surprised the people behind the polls a few times,but they've been fairly accurate for the most part. But for pretty much the whole race, it's been Shillary holding onto a shrinking lead. The longer people look at her the better Bernie looks. I'd say it's not so much about the accuracy of the polls (they're probably reasonably close), but how the game plays out between now and then and how much ground she loses (or pisses away) with voters.
NYC makes up ~45% of the states population (8.5 out of 19.5 million), I see Trump losing big. Even in rural areas his support is mixed in with a healthy amount of opposition. He's turned a corner in a way, his eventual defeat seems much more likely after the last few weeks.
How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?
George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState
Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill
Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.
The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.
Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.
The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.
Get some rest.
I think it is a foregone conclusion that if Trump is not the nominee he will run as an independent. I think Bernie is much less likely...but with the current state of things, I could see him jumping in as well, in that he would only probably need about 30% of the electorate to get elected.
It's hardly a foregone conclusion about Trump running as an Independent and Bernie is even less likely, I agree there.
But Bernie is no wild card.
And you didn't mention a 3rd party conservative shot if Trump IS the nominee.
That's been threatened too.
Cruz is going to get slaughtered in New York. This will be great. My ideal scenario is for Trump to go into Cleveland with over 1200 delegates but short of the majority and then for the establishment to hand the nomination to Cruz. This will piss off Trump and his supporters and will ensure that Cruz runs as a third party....handing the election to Hilary in a landslide.
The one interesting caveat to this is a scenario where Trump runs as an Independent, prompting Bernie to realize that he could stand a real chance running as an independent as well. In this scenario it could be anyone's race.
True...but I think a conservative shot is a long one because they know it would destroy any chance the GOP has. I think Trump running as an independent is dependent on what happens at the convention. If Trump implodes and goes into a close convention, he might feel he was treated fairly. That's why I want Trump to go in with over 1200 delegates. If they steal the nomination from him where he is a clear front runner, he will feel cheated and will not take it sitting down.
Trump will never get on the ballot of many states if he runs independent. The eligibility guidelines for several states is in MAY. The convention is after that. He doesn't have the organization to manage delegates and he's had 8 months to get it together. He certainly won't have what it takes to manage an independent run with only 4 months of planning.
How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?
George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState
Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill
I think it is a foregone conclusion that if Trump is not the nominee he will run as an independent. I think Bernie is much less likely...but with the current state of things, I could see him jumping in as well, in that he would only probably need about 30% of the electorate to get elected.
LOL, the President is not elected by the popular vote, you know that, right? It will either be the Republican or Democrat candidate that moves into the Whitehouse and at this point it looks like Hillary is a shoe in.
The GOP is split along lines that will not go away when one or the other gets the nomination, I believe after the election the GOP will be going through a major change and many will be purged. The Dems on the other hand will put aside their differences to support their Party listened to Bernie the other day where he said as much. Hence at this point Hillary will end up as the Next President whether we like it or not.I understand that....however a third party candidate can work to split the vote. Get two independents running and it certainly would be a messy race.
The GOP is split along lines that will not go away when one or the other gets the nomination, I believe after the election the GOP will be going through a major change and many will be purged. The Dems on the other hand will put aside their differences to support their Party listened to Bernie the other day where he said as much. Hence at this point Hillary will end up as the Next President whether we like it or not.
How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?
George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState
Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill
Polls have been real hit or miss lately, unsure what to trust at this point given how a few recent State contests have turned out vs. what the polls told us prior to.
How close do you think the race will get in New York? It's clear that Upstate New York feels that New York City does not represent them. Would enough of them get out to vote in order to get an upset vote in New York, but then, I would think that upset vote would go overwhelmingly for Trump? Will the votes in NY really be closer than what the polls say? What do you think will happen?
George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York | RedState
Poll: Sanders closes gap in NY | TheHill
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