Arab Leaders, Viewing Hamas as Worse Than Israel, Stay Silent

[donsutherland1]

From The New York Times:

After the military ouster of the Islamist government in Cairo last year, Egypt has led a new coalition of Arab states — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan — that has effectively lined up with Israel in its fight against Hamas, the Islamist movement that controls the Gaza Strip. That, in turn, may have contributed to the failure of the antagonists to reach a negotiated cease-fire even after more than three weeks of bloodshed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/w...n-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

IMO, this is a welcome development. Opposition to radical or extreme groups such as the Hamas terrorist organization can, over time, lead to their marginalization. In turn, their marginalization would increase prospects for regional stability.

 

[donsutherland1]

Despite the present dynamics that have led Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE to take positions that are more accommodating to Israel's needs, I believe a ceasefire is becoming increasingly likely. My guess is that there will likely be a ceasefire in a few days and probably no more than two weeks from now. I'd be surprised if there were no ceasefire beyond two weeks. Hamas has already suffered a significant toll (destroyed tunnels and a loss of up to half of its rockets). People in Gaza are beginning to clamor for peace, something that undermines Hamas' repeated rejections of ceasefires. A largely unconditional period of quiet is beginning to look more and more appealing to the people of Gaza than a continuation of the combat. As a result, Hamas is approaching a point at which it will have little choice but to accept a ceasefire mediated by Egypt, even as its core demands won't be accommodated in that ceasefire. Failure to do so would increasingly risk its becoming isolated among Gaza's people, something that would marginalize it.

The current regional environment, among other factors, could put Israel in an unusually favorable position afterward. First, with a weakened Hamas, the period of quiet can be sustainable on account of deterrence having been re-established. After that, the measures Israel takes can consolidate the quiet and, if Israel is strategic about its approach, can create and enlarge the gap between Hamas and Gaza's residents. That latter outcome could help marginalize Hamas over time. Israel is moving into a position where it can deliver better living conditions to Gaza's residents than Hamas has ever been able to do, but only if it is strategic following a ceasefire. Thus, Israel could have a chance to shatter the myth that Hamas can "deliver" for the Palestinian people through its "resistance" (violence). In time, that situation could help Israel's security needs and also improve the lives of Gaza's residents.

Following a ceasefire, Israel will need to maintain a capacity to continue to destroy tunnels and seize weaponry. A verification regime that includes U.S. and/or Israeli personnel would be important. Afterward, a great deal of patience and thought would be required in developing a reconstruction approach that would benefit Gaza's civilians, not Hamas. Coordination with Egypt could aid that process. Again, a verification regime would be needed. Israeli facilitation would need to be highly visible so that Gaza's residents would begin to learn that Hamas' depiction of Israel was a false narrative.

In contrast, a rush to open border crossings or lift the restrictions would risk repeating past failures and it could allow Hamas to claim that its pressure produced that outcome. Border crossings should be opened for people needing medical care and hospital and other medical supplies should be rushed into the Gaza Strip. But the reconstruction aid should be provided on a thoughtful and verifiable basis. It will be crucial that Hamas not be seen as having gained anything from its violence. Otherwise, deterrence could again erode over time and an opportunity to marginalize the terrorist organization could be lost.

 

[donsutherland1]

It appears that Hamas is beginning to come under pressure from at least some of Gaza's residents and is, at present, inflicting violence on those residents. Such an outcome, aside from exposing Hamas' brutality, is a fresh indication that Hamas is being damaged.
From The Jerusalem Post:

Hamas shot some 20 Palestinians on Monday night for protesting against Hamas for the massive destruction inflicted on their neighborhood in Shejaia by the IDF in the past weeks, Channel 10 reported on Tuesday.

Report: Hamas executes alleged spies, shoots protesters in Gaza | JPost | Israel News

Israel should try to disseminate information about Hamas' brutality against Gaza's residents as widely as possible in the Gaza Strip to intensify local opposition to Hamas.