Another indication Newsom is running in 2028

[ataraxia]

If California was so appealing to the rest of the country, Harris would have won.

If the Center has shifted to the right, you don't get it to shift to the left by being a little more crazy.

This is the lesson the Democrats failed to learn in the 1980's, when they ran Mondale and then Dukakis before they finally had a lick of sense and ran Clinton (for all his flaws).

The only way Dems are ever going to win again is to become more openly racist, homophobic, and anti-science. That's the center of this country.

 

[Perotista]

I can't see it he, rightfully or wrongfully, is seen as an extreme progressive by a large number of voters in key swing States. I could be wrong but I just don't see it. The Dems need a strong, solid liberal who is seen as moderate..even if they aren't!!! Somebody like Shapiro, Moore, Beshear etc...

It all depends on how mad folks are at the party in power. Last year the voters were more peeved or dissatisfied with Biden and company, they went for a candidate they rejected once rather convincingly. Goldwater would have won in 1980 had he ran then instead of 1964. Carter had only a 37% overall approval/61% disapproval. Carter received but 41% of the vote and only 67% of democrats voted for him preferring Reagan 27% and Anderson 6%.

It could be the same for 2028. It all depends on how the voters view Trump and company. Afterall, presidential elections are a referendum on the sitting president, not on the challenger.

 

[Callen]

It all depends on how mad folks are at the party in power. Last year the voters were more peeved or dissatisfied with Biden and company, they went for a candidate they rejected once rather convincingly. Goldwater would have won in 1980 had he ran then instead of 1964. Carter had only a 37% overall approval/61% disapproval. Carter received but 41% of the vote and only 67% of democrats voted for him preferring Reagan 27% and Anderson 6%.

It could be the same for 2028. It all depends on how the voters view Trump and company. Afterall, presidential elections are a referendum on the sitting president, not on the challenger.

First come the primaries. I just don't see him getting broad enough appeal. I don't like him so perhaps I'm biased .

 

[Craig234]

Newsom is clearly making a play for 2028 general election voters. The problem for him is that he has to first run in the Democratic Primary, and he’s already in trouble for being a Straight White Man.

You're such a moral fighter advocating for an end to the unjust persecution of straight white men in the US. Are you marching? Chaining yourself to the NAACP headquarters?

 

[Craig234]

The only way Dems are ever going to win again is to become more openly racist, homophobic, and anti-science. That's the center of this country.

That's cynical, and happily wrong. Those aren't the actual issues, money in politics is.

 

[Craig234]

First come the primaries. I just don't see him getting broad enough appeal. I don't like him so perhaps I'm biased .

You might change your mind if you learn more. Most of the country might also.

 

[JoeB131]

That could be true, or a cover story.

I take Biden at his word that he was heartbroken by Beau's death.

Which supports her negotiating for that.

What was there to negotiate. I think the problem was a lot of other candidates just looked at the Clinton machine and realized that it couldn't be beaten again.

The problem with the Bernie-Bros is that they think people actually like his crazy ideas.

Perhaps, but Hillary is a very flawed candidate.

I agree. She never would have gotten elected to anything if she wasn't married to Bill. I personally don't care for the fact she kept running cover for his bad behavior all those years.

That said, she did a lot better than Kamala did. She won the popular vote and Nevada.

I saw that, and said 'I bet that poster has a more centrist political orientation', and sure enough. Trying to make a Democrat a lot like a Republican thinking that makes them mor electable is a very popular myth for 'centrists'. They don't seem to get a thing about Democratic turnout, because it reinforces them getting a candidate they like more. Truman said voters will pick 'the real Republican' over a Democrat acting like one.

Okay, let's look at that comment. Harry is the one who fobbed Adlai Stevenson and his worn-out shoes on the Democrats in 1952. Not surprisingly, he lost to Ike.

Jimmy Carter ran as a moderate and won.

Then the Democrats doubled down on radical liberals and Mondale and Dukakis lost big time.

Then Bill Clinton ran as a moderate and won. Al Gore would have won, too, if Jeb hadn't stolen Florida (or if Gore had spent more time in NH or TN

The Democrats still hadn't learned, and ran Hippy John Kerry. They lost again.

The only exception to this was Obama, who ran as an unabashed liberal and managed to win.

 

[JoeB131]

The only way Dems are ever going to win again is to become more openly racist, homophobic, and anti-science. That's the center of this country.

I disagree.

Here's the thing that I said earlier that a lot of people don't get.

Trump didn't do any better with White folks this time out.

In 2016, Trump got 57% of the white vote. He got 58% of the white vote in 2020, and 57% of the white vote in 2024. White turnout was stronger in 2024 (going from 67 to 71 of the electorate) but Trump did about the same in percentages.

In 2016, Trump got 8% of the black vote, he got 12% of it in 2020 and 13% of it in 2024. In short, despite being as racist as he is, he improved his performance with black people. Blacks as a percentage dropped from 13% to 11% in 2024.

Now for the things that SHOULD Alarm Democrats.

In 2016, Trump got 28% of the Hispanic vote (compared to 66% for Hillary). In 2020, he got 32% of the Hispanic vote (65% for Biden) , and in 2024, he got a whopping 46% of the Hispanic vote (51% for Harris). Hispanics shrunk from 13% to 11% of the electorate

In 2016, Trump got 27% of the Asian vote (65% for Hillary), in 2020, he got 34% of the Asian vote (61% for Biden) , and in 2020, he got 40%(!) of the Asian vote. (Harris only got 55% despite being the first presidential candidate with Asian ancestry)


Now, how to explain this?

I think Hispanics and Asians are a lot more conservative as groups than Blacks or even whites. For a lot of them, Harris was a bridge too far.

I think Trump also did a much better job with outreach. During the campaign, my wife (who is Chinese) got a letter from a pastor in Mandarin that prasied Trump and called Harris "a vile woman". (May have lost something in translation).


Here's two other facts that were concerning.

Trump won people making less than 50K a year. He won people making between 50 and 100K a year. Biden won those groups in 2020.

Ironically, Harris won people making over 100K a year, a constituency that Biden lost.

The Democrats have lost touch with some of their key base groups.

I think part of this is because Trump is a celebrity, and we live in a society that mistakes celebrity for merit.

Part of this was because Harris was an awful candidate, who was foisted on the country rather than winning fairly in primaries. That had to have left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths.

Part of this is that because Biden was pretty much a vegetable for the last year of his presidency, Trump was able to dominate the narrative on issues like Immigration and the economy.

 

[Craig234]

I take Biden at his word that he was heartbroken by Beau's death.

That isn't the question, though.

What was there to negotiate.

Obama making her Secretary of State and endorsing her in 2016, for two things.

The problem with the Bernie-Bros is that they think people actually like his crazy ideas.

Right-wing delusions.

I agree. She never would have gotten elected to anything if she wasn't married to Bill. I personally don't care for the fact she kept running cover for his bad behavior all those years.

Right. How outrageous for a wife not to lead the attacks, like Melania does on trump.

That said, she did a lot better than Kamala did. She won the popular vote and Nevada.

trump says she didn't, he won the popular vote. Are you calling trump a liar and election cheat?

Okay, let's look at that comment. Harry is the one who fobbed Adlai Stevenson and his worn-out shoes on the Democrats in 1952. Not surprisingly, he lost to Ike.

Ya, a radical unelectable longshot like Ike winning proves your point. How could the general who won WWII a few years earlier and had moderate attractive policies win? Do you know Ike was such a guaranteed win Truman offered to run as his VP if he ran as a Democrat?

Jimmy Carter ran as a moderate and won.

Jimmy Carter ran as a Democrat after Watergate and won. Probably any Democrat would have won.

Then the Democrats doubled down on radical liberals and Mondale and Dukakis lost big time.

Shocking, the Republicans had built up a money-driven political machine that was effective, Reagan had wide popularity giving him 49 states. Ya, it was all about policy.

Then Bill Clinton ran as a moderate and won. Al Gore would have won, too, if Jeb hadn't stolen Florida (or if Gore had spent more time in NH or TN

Bill Clinton as the country tired of 12 years of Reagan/Bush scandal and debt, as a corporate sellout getting that corporate money, as a 'fresh new face' against the very unpopular Bush who had a recession, and got 43% of the vote.

 

[JoeB131]

I noticed the Bernie Bro skipped right over the number stuff, where Trump did better with poor people and minorities this time.

But let's look at the stuff he did address.

Right. How outrageous for a wife not to lead the attacks, like Melania does on trump.

Um, if your whole brand is "women's empowerment," then, yes, standing by a man who has cheated on you multiple times is pretty stupid.

Melania was a mail-order bride from the start. I noticed how she kept a low profile this time out. She didn't put up with the humiliation.

Ya, a radical unelectable longshot like Ike winning proves your point. How could the general who won WWII a few years earlier and had moderate attractive policies win? Do you know Ike was such a guaranteed win Truman offered to run as his VP if he ran as a Democrat?

Nope, I never heard that. But that was in 1948, not 1952. He only considered it because McArthur was considering running as a Republican.

immy Carter ran as a Democrat after Watergate and won. Probably any Democrat would have won.

Yet, he didn't win by that much. He beat the unelected guy who pardoned Nixon.

Here was the problem the Democrats had in 1976. Commie George McGovern had ruined the Democratic brand. "Acid, Abortion, and Amnesty" - and that was his running mate saying that stuff!!!

They needed to get back to the center to win.

Obama making her Secretary of State and endorsing her in 2016, for two things.

Except that Obama didn't endorse her until she all but secured the nomination. Wow, you mean he endorsed his loyal Sec. of State over some Commie Gadfly who isn't even officially a Democrat? Amazing!!!

Shocking, the Republicans had built up a money-driven political machine that was effective, Reagan had wide popularity giving him 49 states. Ya, it was all about policy.

I'm not sure why you guys blame money for bad candidates. Harris had a billion dollars, and she still lost to the guy who tried to overthrow the government.

Reagan won because the economy was good and Mondale was a crap candidate. It probably didn't help that he said he'd raise taxes if elected.

Bill Clinton as the country tired of 12 years of Reagan/Bush scandal and debt, as a corporate sellout getting that corporate money, as a 'fresh new face' against the very unpopular Bush who had a recession, and got 43% of the vote.

Fortunes change. The only reason why Clinton got the nomination is that after the Gulf War, Bush was riding at 90% in the polls, and big-name Democrats like Mario Cuomo decided to take a powder. His opponents for the nomination were Governor Moonbeam (AKA Jerry Brown), Tsongas, who had one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, and Tom Harkin, who no one remembers today. Clinton didn't win IA or NH, but still managed to be the "Comeback kid."

Not a fan of Bill Clinton. Never voted for him. (Voted for Tsongas in the primary, Bush in the general, and Dole in 96, because I found his behavior so reprehensible.) But give the man credit, he brought the Dems back to the center and won the most convincing victories since LBJ.

 

[Craig234]

I noticed the Bernie Bro skipped right over the number stuff, where Trump did better with poor people and minorities this time.

Bernie Bro is a rather offensive propaganda term, not the way to get read.

 

[JoeB131]

Why is it offensive? You are the one who likes Commie Bernie. You know, the "Socialist" who owns four mansions.

The problem is, you can't really answer why Trump gained with minorities and poor people this time. (Or you could, you just can't face the answer that nominating a radical California politician alienated a lot of the people you'd normally attract.).

Harris got 7 million fewer votes than Biden got. Trump got 3 million more votes this time out. Need to ask why, and if nominating another radical California politician is the way to fix that.

"Hope the economy goes bad and people will like Democrats again" isn't a strategy.

 

[Craig234]

Why is it offensive?

I already told you. It's a propaganda lie. If you can't understand that, there's not much to discuss. You post a lot of lies.

 

[JoeB131]

I already told you. It's a propaganda lie. If you can't understand that, there's not much to discuss. You post a lot of lies.

Then you should be able to easily refute them.

Why did Trump improve with Hispanics, Asians, and working people?


HInt- because Harris was scary to most of them, and we don't need more California radicals.

 

[Exquisitor]

IMO it seems Newsom is 'playing national politics' by getting headlines this week for opposing transgender women in women's sports. That he's bothering suggest the sort of thing he'd do to help build a 2028 presidential run. Getting press, 'standing out' from other Democrats, while not offending Democrats too much.

Who is "Newsom," oh, Gavin Newsom, hey, that's great news, now I have a Candidate.

Seven, seven is the number to beat, if you don't have a seven, don't bother to apply.

Too bad California is such a wreck.

Too bad the Democratic Party has its head up its ass.

Oh, good, he's got the first plank right, I'll have to write him.

I don't know what kind of idiots want men in women's sports.

 

[Exquisitor]

Not a chance in hell he could win nationally.

He's top of the roster.

Mitch Landrieu 17
Gavin Newsom 7

I now know how to calculate strong and minor aspects, for a more accurate score, but the most precise is if you know what time they were born.

I'll keep you posted.

 

[Craig234]

Too bad California is such a wreck.

Not only is that wrong, we're the best and leading state in the country.

Too bad the Democratic Party has its head up its ass.

California's Democrats are great, one of the best state governments in the country.

 

[Exquisitor]

Not only is that wrong, we're the best and leading state in the country.

California's Democrats are great, one of the best state governments in the country.

Maybe.

Tell me more.

 

[Exquisitor]

The only way Dems are ever going to win again is to become more openly racist, homophobic, and anti-science. That's the center of this country.

No, you can still have gays and not have to swim against them.

No, they need to get their platform together, we can't go back to wade and we can't take away guns, so we have rotten planks in our platform, the people don't trust us, instead they trust the Republican. I sure wouldn't trust someone who ran a negative fourteen.

But once those rotten planks are fixed maybe they can get down to business and properly address this refugee crisis.

 

[CLAX1911]

IMO it seems Newsom is 'playing national politics' by getting headlines this week for opposing transgender women in women's sports. That he's bothering suggest the sort of thing he'd do to help build a 2028 presidential run. Getting press, 'standing out' from other Democrats, while not offending Democrats too much.

I think another thing he should do to help his chances is denounce the covid lockdowns. And maybe support at least partially the deportation of illegal aliens.

 

[JoeB131]

I think another thing he should do to help his chances is denounce the covid lockdowns. And maybe support at least partially the deportation of illegal aliens.

All he has to do is wait for Trump to wreck the economy, and the rest takes care of itself.

 

[CLAX1911]

All he has to do is wait for Trump to wreck the economy, and the rest takes care of itself.

Why are you so sure Trump would seems like it's doing better since he's been in office.

 

[JoeB131]

Why are you so sure Trump would seems like it's doing better since he's been in office.

How can you say that?

Gasoline is going up again.
The stock market is crashing
Eggs are still expensive
We have Canada threatening to cut off New York's electricity.

 

[Craig234]

Maybe.

Tell me more.

You can look at hundreds of policies where California's Democrats are on the right side, and leading the country. Just one famous policy is having higher standards for vehicle emissions that benefit the whole country with an exemption from the federal government trump wants to remove.

Listen to an interview with Newsom that's 30 minutes or longer and form an opinion. Or do you want statistics how California leads the country?