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Analysts see Iran at breaking point amid protests

The_Penguin

The_Penguin

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(CNN) -- In the middle of a loud, violent brawl in Tehran, Iran, anti-government protesters manage to corner a handful of riot police who were sent to combat them.

As the crowd pushes the police against a wall -- with screams coming from all directions -- a protester points his finger at them. "Why are you doing this?" he yells.

One of the police -- the only one whose helmet is off, his face apparently bloody -- responds. "I'm sorry," he says. "I'm sorry." The other police stand still, trapped by the crowd's grasp.

Then the protester says something else, in one of the most telling signs of the historic anti-government rebellion sweeping through the streets of Iran.

He demands that the police call Ayatollah Khamenei -- the supreme leader of the nation's hardline Islamic government -- a "bastard."

Reports including photos from the scene indicate the incident took place Sunday.

-snip-
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Analysts see Iran at breaking point amid protests - CNN.com

This can go several ways:
* Orange Revolution and Ahmy is forced to 'step-down'. New elections are held and the opposition goes all out in terms of asking for monitoring (most likely will be from a non-Western country, such as Japan or ROK.)
* The government turns up the oppression and puts down a lid on that boiling pot. In a couple of years things go over just about as well as they did in Romania in the early 90's (the Islamic Republic is no more.) Expect prisons to appear all over Iran to hold these people.
* They simply start killing people that they don't like and things go the way of Pol Pot.
 
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Regardless, if this did become like the Berlin Wall, my understanding of human nature and our role in the cosmos would undergo a great upheaval.
 
The_Penguin said:
Analysts see Iran at breaking point amid protests - CNN.com

This can go several ways:
* Orange Revolution and Ahmy is forced to 'step-down'. New elections are held and the opposition goes all out in terms of asking for monitoring (most likely will be from a non-Western country, such as Japan or ROK.)
* The government turns up the oppression and puts down a lid on that boiling pot. In a couple of years things go over just about as well as they did in Romania in the early 90's (the Islamic Republic is no more.) Expect prisons to appear all over Iran to hold these people.
* They simply start killing people that they don't like and things go the way of Pol Pot.
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Another possiblity is that the protesters get worn down, and slow down the number and intensity of protests. Right now, the level and frequency of protests are not sufficient to disrupt commerce significantly.

What are the indicators that the protests are disturbing the government?

How could the current Iranian government become so embarrassed that they would resign their positions?



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OxymoronP said:
If the Iranian people are not satisfied soon, the Tyrants days are numbered.
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Doubt it. The key to power in Iran is the Revolutionary Guard and it is taking more and more power to it self. At some point (if it has not reached that already) the Mullah's will be replaced by a military dictatorship.

So they will be replacing one Tyrant with another... one that I fear even more than the radical Mullahs.
 
PeteEU said:
Doubt it. The key to power in Iran is the Revolutionary Guard and it is taking more and more power to it self. At some point (if it has not reached that already) the Mullah's will be replaced by a military dictatorship.

So they will be replacing one Tyrant with another... one that I fear even more than the radical Mullahs.
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The demonstrators may be playing into the hands of the Military, by giving more importance to the Military and Basij, and allowing the Iranian Military to dismiss instructions or advice from the Mullahs.


The Iranian Clerics have a direct line to the Basij, because the Bisij are local chapters, headquartered in the local mosque.


Interesting concept of a divergence of interests between the Iranian Clergy, and the Revolutionary guard.







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PeteEU said:
Doubt it. The key to power in Iran is the Revolutionary Guard and it is taking more and more power to it self. At some point (if it has not reached that already) the Mullah's will be replaced by a military dictatorship.

So they will be replacing one Tyrant with another... one that I fear even more than the radical Mullahs.
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The Iranian Clerics have a direct line to the Basij, because the Bisij are local chapters, headquartered in the local mosque.


Interesting concept of a divergence of interests between the Iranian Clergy, and the Revolutionary guard.



"State television has repeatedly shown images, ostensibly taken during student-led protests on Dec. 7, of unidentified hands burning and tearing up pictures of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It was a grave and illegal insult against the former leader, still widely respected in the country. The elite Revolutionary Guard, the country's most powerful military force, called for the trial and punishment of those responsible.

Mohammad Nourizad, a filmmaker and activist, said that no matter who was behind the destruction of his photo, the offense pales in significance to the killing of protesters and the violation of people's rights. Iran's opposition says at least 72 protesters were killed."

"Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi has said his supporters love Khomeini and would not take actions that insulted him. The post-election protests, led by Mousavi, borrowed tactics from Khomenei's Islamic Revolution, such as shouting "Allahu Akbar" from the rooftops of Tehran in a nightly protest"


Burned ayatollah photo sparks new Iranian protests | Washington Examiner


Some protesters are protesting the Election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but not oposing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

These factions are so intertwined, that it is unclear how Khomeini would diminish the power of the Revolutionary Guard. Who sets the Revolutionary Guard pay grades and quotas for conscription?


Martyrdom is important for Iranians, so killing protesters may be playing into the hands of the opposition, making protesters easier to organize




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If they are at the breaking point it's no thanks to this administration.
 
Dutch said:
If they are at the breaking point it's no thanks to this administration.
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Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

I assume you wouldnt want the Iranian government to able to claim heavy US interference and then label all opposition as traitors, then leading to extreme measures.

Perhaps you should appreciate the US staying out of it and allowing the Iranian protestors to fight their own fight, gaining them the credibility among the iranian public they must need?
 
creation said:
Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

I assume you wouldnt want the Iranian government to able to claim heavy US interference and then label all opposition as traitors, then leading to extreme measures.
Perhaps you should appreciate the US staying out of it and allowing the Iranian protestors to fight their own fight, gaining them the credibility among the iranian public they must need?
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They're doing that anyway.......:roll:



source

Iran protests at US 'interference'


The detainees were taken to Tehran's Evin prison
Iran has made a strong protest over what it calls American "interference" in its internal affairs.

The diplomatic move came after almost a week of anti-government protests, which US President George W Bush said were "the beginnings of people expressing themselves toward a free Iran".

The Iranian foreign ministry had already attacked the US for "flagrant interference in Iran's internal affairs", but a formal note has now been sent via the Swiss embassy in Tehran.

Thirty "miscreants and hooligans" are being held by police, after thousands took to the streets in a sixth night of demonstrations on Sunday.

A police commander quoted by the official Irna news agency did not say whether those detained were anti-regime protesters, or hardline Islamic vigilantes opposing them......
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Dutch said:
They're doing that anyway.......:roll:



source
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No theyre really not.

Theyre taking a few in and using beatings and intimidation, shooting some on the street when under pressure.

See the Tianenmen Sqaure massacre for what a government can really do when it wants to - kill and imprison everyone it possibly can. Youre rightm they may still do it. But why make it easier for them by making it into a clear battle not just between Iranians but between Iranians and Iranians with US backing?

Do you really want the US to be directly in this internal battle?
 
Dutch said:
If they are at the breaking point it's no thanks to this administration.
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What are the Western otpions for action?

The conflict as I see it is the demonstrators feel they should be able to demonstrate, and the Revolutionary Guard/Basij feel demonstrators are somehow foreign agitators,, and deserve to be beaten severely.



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Dutch said:
If they are at the breaking point it's no thanks to this administration.
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Give it up Dutch. Whether you like it or not Obama is our CIC. You'll have to hang in there for seven more years like we did. :mrgreen:
 
OxymoronP said:
If the Iranian people are not satisfied soon, the Tyrants days are numbered.
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let's hope on that one. The Iranian people are showing a will and resolve to stand up to their oppressive government and to take for themselves their right to self-governance. It will be great if the Iranian People can rise up and dispose of the despots and tyrants plaguing their government.
 
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