An electric car won’t save you money

[The Old Soul]

Maintenance difference is substantial but in ten years the EV would need new batteries which would likely be break even with accumulated maintenance cost of conventional car over that time frame.

There is nothing cost effective about owning any car; they are all (except collector vehicles) money pits. My guess - sorry, no links - is that in 10 years batteries will be exponentially cheaper, if not of completely different composition entirely. With the financial load of conforming to emissions and mileage standards removed from the R&D departments of auto manufacturers, the same money would target battery and charging improvements.

Given that the drive train of the BEV in general is vastly simpler than the simplest ICE, many more 'chassis miles' will be possible when the original drive train degrades to replacement/upqrade status. A BEV will have more intrinsic value when in the 200K to 300K miles range, than an ICE which needs a vehicle-specific drive train replacement; recycled BEV's might just be the low-income buyer's way into an eV in the not-too-distant future.

Same theory applies if the Hydrogen/fuel-cell electric motor vehicle market takes off. Electric motors are simple, reliable, and cheap.

 

[Allan]

There is nothing cost effective about owning any car; they are all (except collector vehicles) money pits. My guess - sorry, no links - is that in 10 years batteries will be exponentially cheaper, if not of completely different composition entirely. With the financial load of conforming to emissions and mileage standards removed from the R&D departments of auto manufacturers, the same money would target battery and charging improvements.

Given that the drive train of the BEV in general is vastly simpler than the simplest ICE, many more 'chassis miles' will be possible when the original drive train degrades to replacement/upqrade status. A BEV will have more intrinsic value when in the 200K to 300K miles range, than an ICE which needs a vehicle-specific drive train replacement; recycled BEV's might just be the low-income buyer's way into an eV in the not-too-distant future.

Same theory applies if the Hydrogen/fuel-cell electric motor vehicle market takes off. Electric motors are simple, reliable, and cheap.

Million mile batteries are coming.

 

[longview]

There is nothing cost effective about owning any car; they are all (except collector vehicles) money pits. My guess - sorry, no links - is that in 10 years batteries will be exponentially cheaper, if not of completely different composition entirely. With the financial load of conforming to emissions and mileage standards removed from the R&D departments of auto manufacturers, the same money would target battery and charging improvements.

Given that the drive train of the BEV in general is vastly simpler than the simplest ICE, many more 'chassis miles' will be possible when the original drive train degrades to replacement/upqrade status. A BEV will have more intrinsic value when in the 200K to 300K miles range, than an ICE which needs a vehicle-specific drive train replacement; recycled BEV's might just be the low-income buyer's way into an eV in the not-too-distant future.

Same theory applies if the Hydrogen/fuel-cell electric motor vehicle market takes off. Electric motors are simple, reliable, and cheap.

Yes, but batteries need to be much higher energy density, before battery electrics can move beyond cars and light trucks.

 

[longview]

Million mile batteries are coming.

They mean batteries that will be able to be recharged enough times to make a million miles,
the energy density will still limit the miles per charge to the 300 to 500 mile range,
with a lot a weight being carrier along.

 

[Allan]

They mean batteries that will be able to be recharged enough times to make a million miles,
the energy density will still limit the miles per charge to the 300 to 500 mile range,

300 to 500 is very good. If you have to drive further charge en-route.

with a lot a weight being carrier along.

IC cars have the same issue - weight of the engine, transmission and related parts. I don't know what the trade off is between IC and electric components but both systems have weight related to the power systems.

 

[Allan]

with a lot a weight being carrier along.

I did a bit of research. A battery pack weighs on average 1,000 lbs. An 4 cylinder IC engine is about 200 - 350 lbs and transmission about 226 lbs for a total of 526 lbs. But what matters is not so much the weight as the car's ability to power itself including the weight. Electric cars have a hell of a lot more power compared to an IC vehicle.

 

[longview]

300 to 500 is very good. If you have to drive further charge en-route.

IC cars have the same issue - weight of the engine, transmission and related parts. I don't know what the trade off is between IC and electric components but both systems have weight related to the power systems.

I know, but you have to have the best car to get 500 miles from a battery you can carry,
but after the engine and transmission overhead, a car could carry another tanks worth of gas easy.
If we optimize how we get the energy from the fuel, like the new Camry Hybrid, you can get over 50 Mpg.

 

[The Old Soul]

Yes, but batteries need to be much higher energy density, before battery electrics can move beyond cars and light trucks.

When the dry-cell/capacitor batteries are incorporated - where I have thought the technology will take us - then the 1M mile battery will likely rule. The Lambo Sian already uses Supercapacitors instead of chemical-reaction batteries in their hybrid, which is replacing the V-12 as the quickest and fastest of the carline - the V-12's have gone the way of the dinosaur.

Battery weight is the big equalizer - eMotors are tiny in weight/power comparison to an ICE. The potential for development is definitely with electronic vehicles; consider where batteries have come in the last 10 years, when 200 mile batteries were the cutting edge, and now we are rattling around 400 to 500 miles.

 

[VanceMack]

Still too many hurdles at this point in time. The EVs are still way too expensive, they arent solving anything if they still require fossil fuel electrical generation to produce the electricity, battery life is a problem, available charging stations are a real problem, charging times for any significant trips over 300 miles is a problem, to say nothing of the fact that fossil fuels have to be mined (using fossil fuel equipment) to get enough raw materials to produce the cars.

 

[The Old Soul]

Million mile batteries are coming.

In the motorcycle world (I also have a Zero S), there are 12 year old bikes with well over 100K on old technology light-weight batteries. My S weighs 312 pounds with range of 70 in-town miles.

last year one of the Tesla Club Forum members claimed over 233K on the original battery:

I'm now North of 233K mi on my original battery. still got somewhat less than 2 years on my battery warranty.

Participating in various BEV cycle and car forums, it seems battery failures are rare, and warranty length is arbitrary. In the Zero/MC world, some owners are 'fixing' their own batteries by replacing the few dead cells that went bad, for a fraction of the cost of a new battery pack.

For those that don't know, eV batteries are made up of hundreds of individual self-contained cells that are daisy-chained together; sort of like a case of batteries. Just a few shorted or open cells can cause severe degradation, loss of capacity, and rapid discharge.

 

[The Old Soul]

Still too many hurdles at this point in time. The EVs are still way too expensive, they arent solving anything if they still require fossil fuel electrical generation to produce the electricity, battery life is a problem, available charging stations are a real problem, charging times for any significant trips over 300 miles is a problem, to say nothing of the fact that fossil fuels have to be mined (using fossil fuel equipment) to get enough raw materials to produce the cars.

Availability of charging stations is a supply / demand issue. Here in Phoenix (#7 city in eV population), stations are plentiful. Here is a map of the inner-city, non-Tesla level 3 stations anyone with an eV can utilize. The rectangles on the map are 1-mile, 1/2 mile, and 1/4 mile grids of the city:

There are a lot more free (business equipped) and Supercharger stations, but this is what a traveler would see on their GPS passing through.

 

[VanceMack]

Availability of charging stations is a supply / demand issue. Here in Phoenix (#7 city in eV population), stations are plentiful. Here is a map of the inner-city, non-Tesla level 3 stations anyone with an eV can utilize. The rectangles on the map are 1-mile, 1/2 mile, and 1/4 mile grids of the city:
View attachment 67388615
There are a lot more free (business equipped) and Supercharger stations, but this is what a traveler would see on their GPS passing through.

Plentiful...but thats 17 stations for how many commuters and travelers. Today.

 

[The Old Soul]

Plentiful...but thats 17 stations for how many commuters and travelers. Today.

Commuters typically charge at home - the examples are just the commercial level-3 fast-charge pay sites for the unfamiliar, non-specialty, generic eV drivers that need a quick charge when on the road.

This map does not show the Tesla Supercharger sites (not everyone has a Tesla), nor the free level-2 charging sites like at Walmart, the Mall, Safeway, and numerous other businesses and parking ramps; add any standard, household 15 amp 110V outlet your cord will reach, and the numbers of charge points greatly outnumber gas stations. I have a 14 gauge, 100 foot cord I carry 'just in case,' but if you run your battery flat here, that means you are trying. There are 15 free and pay sites within 5 miles of my home.

 

[Chainsawmassacre]

There is nothing cost effective about owning any car; they are all (except collector vehicles) money pits. My guess - sorry, no links - is that in 10 years batteries will be exponentially cheaper, if not of completely different composition entirely. With the financial load of conforming to emissions and mileage standards removed from the R&D departments of auto manufacturers, the same money would target battery and charging improvements.

Given that the drive train of the BEV in general is vastly simpler than the simplest ICE, many more 'chassis miles' will be possible when the original drive train degrades to replacement/upqrade status. A BEV will have more intrinsic value when in the 200K to 300K miles range, than an ICE which needs a vehicle-specific drive train replacement; recycled BEV's might just be the low-income buyer's way into an eV in the not-too-distant future.

Same theory applies if the Hydrogen/fuel-cell electric motor vehicle market takes off. Electric motors are simple, reliable, and cheap.

That's not a given. As more people plug in cost of electricity will rise unless it somehow defies the law of supply and demand. At the same time gas prices could moderate as fewer people filled up based on the same economic law.

 

[longview]

When the dry-cell/capacitor batteries are incorporated - where I have thought the technology will take us - then the 1M mile battery will likely rule. The Lambo Sian already uses Supercapacitors instead of chemical-reaction batteries in their hybrid, which is replacing the V-12 as the quickest and fastest of the carline - the V-12's have gone the way of the dinosaur.

Battery weight is the big equalizer - eMotors are tiny in weight/power comparison to an ICE. The potential for development is definitely with electronic vehicles; consider where batteries have come in the last 10 years, when 200 mile batteries were the cutting edge, and now we are rattling around 400 to 500 miles.

I agree the electric motors are better in almost every way than IC, but think the energy may not be carried in batteries, short of a major technological breakthrough.

 

[Buzz]

That's not a given. As more people plug in cost of electricity will rise unless it somehow defies the law of supply and demand. At the same time gas prices could moderate as fewer people filled up based on the same economic law.

You might be right. But if past trends are any evidence of what's to come, I'll bet I am right.


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20372


https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicle...storical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015

 

[Chainsawmassacre]

You might be right. But if past trends are any evidence of what's to come, I'll bet I am right.

View attachment 67388658
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20372

View attachment 67388659
https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicle...storical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015

If the minions start ditching conventional cars for EVs those graphs will be in the history books. Supply and demand is a rigid economic law.

 

[longview]

If the minions start ditching conventional cars for EVs those graphs will be in the history books. Supply and demand is a rigid economic law.

I wonder about if peak usage hours will change, and people start programming their chargers to
charge on off peak hours. A level 2 charger is like running your electric dryer for 5 extra hours a night,
if millions of people start doing that, it will add up.

 

[jonny5]

I wonder about if peak usage hours will change, and people start programming their chargers to
charge on off peak hours. A level 2 charger is like running your electric dryer for 5 extra hours a night,
if millions of people start doing that, it will add up.

Do we even have the generation capacity for everyone using electric?

 

[longview]

Do we even have the generation capacity for everyone using electric?

Unlikely, but our load is not evenly distributed across the 24 hour clock, so the existing
powerplants running at full capacity at night would cover a lot of people charging cars with existing infrastructure,
I do think that could change what is considered peak and off peak hours.

 

[ataraxia]

If you think an e vehicle is cheaper to own think again. Even at today’s gas prices you won’t even break even until you own your e car from eight to 13 years.

Don't Swap Your Gas-Guzzler for an Electric Vehicle to Avoid High Fuel Prices

EVs make a lot of sense, especially as fuel prices climb, but avoid knee-jerk impulses to buy an electric car just to save money at the pump.

www.cnet.com

It's OK to think about something more than your own wallet once in a while- like your kids or grandkids' future.

 

[Chainsawmassacre]

It's OK to think about something more than your own wallet once in a while- like your kids or grandkids' future.

Whether or not EVs will " save the planet " is another subject. As per this subject EVs won't save you money.

 

[Chainsawmassacre]

Do we even have the generation capacity for everyone using electric?

The elephant in the room.

 

[ataraxia]

Whether or not EVs will " save the planet " is another subject. As per this subject EVs won't save you money.

That’s like saying not paying for cleaning products for your house will save you money. While true, it seems pretty silly when completely divorced in that way from the primary consideration for buying cleaning products.

 

[longview]

That’s like saying not paying for cleaning products for your house will save you money. While true, it seems pretty silly when completely divorced in that way from the primary consideration for buying cleaning products.

Please consider the time it would take for the transition to battery electric cars to have any impact on global emissions.
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by the Transportation Sector
So cars make up 40% of 22% or 8.8% of all CO2 emissions.
Let's say it takes 20 years for half of the cars in use globally to become batter electric, that would represent a 4.4% decrease in
global CO2 emissions.
Other options include hybrids, and making carbon neutral fuels, or all of the above.
Let's say that by 2030 the price of oil is stable at $130 a barrel, and expansion of wind and solar
have pushed down the price of wind and solar peak times for electricity to $50 per Mwh.
In that same time 25 percent of the global fleet of vehicles are hybrids, and have roughly double the MPG of what they replaced.
The price of gasoline from oil would be about $6.00 a gallon, and gasoline made from atmospheric CO2 water and electricity,
could be as low as $5.00 a gallon, so everyone buys it, the high octane fuel is also available in cheaper avgas, diesel, and jet fuel.
New CO2 emissions drop by the full 22%, but because of the higher MPG, many vehicles have the same cost per mile as in 2022.