Allan Lichtman Predicted a Trump Win in '16, and a Trump Loss in 2020

[Old 'N Chill]

It's just a prediction, but he's been correct since 1984. Video of his short interview in link.

He has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential race since Ronald Reagan's reelection victory in 1984 using his "13 keys" system. (It's worth mentioning that in 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida's electoral votes. Lichtman stands by validity of his prediction.)

In an interview with CNN, Lichtman was definitive in his answer: "The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year."

History professor who has accurately predicted every election since 1984 says Trump will lose

History professor Allan Lichtman is used to being right.

www.cnn.com

 

[ReubenSherr]

It's just a prediction, but he's been correct since 1984.

This is false.

Lichtman called the election for Gore in 2000. And then whined and complained that he was simply predicting the popular vote.

Norporth has the same record for calling elections correctly as Lichtman, and he predicted a Trump win.

It will be exciting to find out who of these two will be correct.

 

[beefheart]

This is false.

Lichtman called the election for Gore in 2000. And then whined and complained that he was simply predicting the popular vote.

Norporth has the same record for calling elections correctly as Lichtman, and he predicted a Trump win.

It will be exciting to find out who of these two will be correct.

Oh look, you have to defend because that is how you are supposed to post!

Is it worth it?

 

[Phys251]

It's just a prediction, but he's been correct since 1984. Video of his short interview in link.

History professor who has accurately predicted every election since 1984 says Trump will lose

History professor Allan Lichtman is used to being right.

www.cnn.com

Guess we'll find out in a week. Or two. Or ten.

 

[Casper]

Guess we'll find out in a week. Or two. Or ten.

Depends on turn out if high and Biden wins with big numbers then challenging the State elections will be very difficult. Same goes if trump if he were to win big. Now a tight race could delay the results for a couple of weeks in some States, if legal challenges are made.

 

[Old 'N Chill]

This is false.

Lichtman called the election for Gore in 2000. And then whined and complained that he was simply predicting the popular vote.

Gore did win the popular vote and since then Lichtman has adjusted his method and is now predicting Electoral College wins, so it is not false and he was correct about Trump in '16. If you looked at the video in the article, you would hear him address that. Dpn't get excited now, the sky won't fall if/when Trump loses. Minute 1:35

 

[Old 'N Chill]

Guess we'll find out in a week. Or two. Or ten.

I may be wrong, but I think, especially if Biden wins by a landslide, that we'll know by the next day or two at the most who the loser officially is.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Gore did win the popular vote and since then Lichtman has adjusted his method and is now predicting Electoral College wins, so it is not false and he was correct about Trump in '16. If you looked at the video in the article, you would hear him address that.

I think you missed the point here lol, that Lichtman called 2000 incorrectly, and then gave a million excuses why it wasn't an error. Yes, Lichtman perceives that he called the race correctly.

The point is important, though, in noting that both Allan Lichtman and Helmut Norpoth have an identical record for predicting presidential elections dating back to the 90s, and Norpoth is predicting a Trump victory. We'll find out which of these men will be correct.

Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump - SBU News

The political science professor has enjoyed notable success forecasting elections based on his Primary Model, a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races.

news.stonybrook.edu

 

[Phys251]

I think you missed the point here lol, that Lichtman called 2000 incorrectly, and then gave a million excuses why it wasn't an error. Yes, Lichtman perceives that he called the race correctly.

The point is important, though, in noting that both Allan Lichtman and Helmut Norpoth have an identical record for predicting presidential elections dating back to the 90s, and Norpoth is predicting a Trump victory. We'll find out which of these men will be correct.

Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump - SBU News

The political science professor has enjoyed notable success forecasting elections based on his Primary Model, a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races.

news.stonybrook.edu

The Rethuglicans stole the race in 2000, and they are going all-out to steal it again in 2020.

 

[Clownonthewing]

I mean, if they counted all of the votes he would have been right in 2000 as well. He actually was right, in terms of how the people of this country would vote. Hard to foresee the supreme court stealing an election.

 

[Old 'N Chill]

This is false.

Lichtman called the election for Gore in 2000. And then whined and complained that he was simply predicting the popular vote.

Norporth has the same record for calling elections correctly as Lichtman, and he predicted a Trump win.

It will be exciting to find out who of these two will be correct.

Excited yet?