A thought experiment on immigration and illegal immigration enforcement

[ALiberalModerate]

Let me preface this by pointing out that this is a hypothetical. I am not in favor of rounding up and deporting otherwise law abiding people that have been here for years, are working, and have formed ties here - particularly family ties here.

I have worked in software engineering/devops for over 25 years now. At the rate of advancement in Reasoning LLMs (Large Language Models), and the amount of research and investment going into them, it is possible that over the course of the next 3 to 10 years, we see massive white collar layoffs. We could quite literally see tens of millions of white collar workers laid off with positions in finance, marketing, engineering, tech, hr, and creative fields reduced by 50% or more. I am not saying this will happen, or is likely, but it is a reasonable possibility - and this would occur must faster than any other economic transformation in the history of civilization. This wouldn't be the slow decline of manufacturing employment, or the slow industrial transition that took over 150 years. This would occur over just a few years, an economic displacement like never before in civilization.

There are those who argue for Universal Basic Income as a response to this disruption. While well-intentioned, I believe it’s impractical. Many displaced professionals—especially those far from retirement—are unlikely to accept a passive income in place of meaningful work. Instead, they may seek roles in skilled trades or healthcare, leading to increased competition and downward pressure on wages in those sectors. Think about it, carpenters and plumbers make good money because they are in a skilled profession that is physical, and that there is a greater demand for than there are people currently willing to do those jobs. Nurses and respiratory therapists make good money because there is more demand for their jobs than people qualified to do them. Think of world where that all of a sudden isn't the case anymore. Millions of former accountants, software engineers, creative professionals and so on are all of sudden training for those jobs or going to school for them.

Now, think of a world were at the same time, there are 10 or 20 million illegal immigrants here competing for many of the same jobs. Again, this is all a hypothetical, its a thought experiment (which used to be pretty common on Debate Politics, but are very rare these days on here). My point being that it is much easier to be tolerant and accepting of undocumented immigrants, when you are not competing against them.

 

[Mr Person]

There are those who argue for Universal Basic Income as a response to this disruption. While well-intentioned, I believe it’s impractical. Many displaced professionals—especially those far from retirement—are unlikely to accept a passive income in place of meaningful work. Instead, they may seek roles in skilled trades or healthcare, leading to increased competition and downward pressure on wages in those sectors. Think about it, carpenters and plumbers make good money because they are in a skilled profession that is physical, and that there is a greater demand for than there are people currently willing to do those jobs. Nurses and respiratory therapists make good money because there is more demand for their jobs than people qualified to do them. Think of world where that all of a sudden isn't the case anymore. Millions of former accountants, software engineers, creative professionals and so on are all of sudden training for those jobs or going to school for them.

What of AI-driven machinery?

I don't think anyone on Earth fully comprehends the extremely rapid changes that will happen.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

What of AI-driven machinery?

I don't think anyone on Earth fully comprehends the extremely rapid changes that will happen.

All the low hanging fruit for automation of labor has already been done. We don’t have the tech in the near horizon to replace the trades with robots. We might in 20 years, but we don’t have it now. We can barely build a robot that can successfully crack an egg.

The massive job displacement coming will be white collar jobs.

 

[RF667799]

All the low hanging fruit for automation of labor has already been done. We don’t have the tech in the near horizon to replace the trades with robots. We might in 20 years, but we don’t have it now. We can barely build a robot that can successfully crack an egg.

The massive job displacement coming will be white collar jobs.

Unionization can protect the blue collar trades from too much encroachment on their jobs from displaced white collar workers.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Unionization can protect the blue collar trades from too much encroachment on their jobs from displaced white collar workers.

True, our son is a union millwright, but unions aren’t that strong anymore in most areas.

My point is that if you have mass worker displacement among white collar jobs, there will be a glut of potential workers in the non-AI impacted sectors of the economy.

 

[RF667799]

True, our son is a union millwright, but unions aren’t that strong anymore in most areas.

I'm proposing they increase their strength and territory.

My point is that if you have mass worker displacement among white collar jobs, there will be a glut of potential workers in the non-AI impacted sectors of the economy.

Yes. I'm proposing one way that jobs can be protected from such a massive over-supply. That the over supply might happen so quickly is a major problem, as you alluded to in the second paragraph of your OP.

 

[j brown's body]

All the low hanging fruit for automation of labor has already been done. We don’t have the tech in the near horizon to replace the trades with robots. We might in 20 years, but we don’t have it now. We can barely build a robot that can successfully crack an egg.

The massive job displacement coming will be white collar jobs.

Will the job displacement cover the loss from the shrinking birth population?

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Will the job displacement cover the loss from the shrinking birth population?

It would likely happen much faster than the long term population reduction that results from a lower birth rate.

 

[j brown's body]

Many people come here to look for work when there are jobs available and leave or dont come here when they arent.

I believe that after the 2008 mortgage meltdown, people were crossing the border more to leave than to come here.

It's a remarkable example of free market regulating itself.

 

[StillBallin75]

I don't know why it should be one or the other. The only reason I am "competing" at all with other working class people for resources is because in a capitalist system the resources are hoarded extremely disproportionately by the capitalist class.

Immigration controls in any case don't even actually decrease competition, they actually only serve the additional evil of allowing capitalists to exploit workers in their world countries whose labor is cheap because they have less rights by caging them in and preventing them from leaving and realizing their actual potential elsewhere.

In a world that wasn't completely friggin brainwashed with hypernationalist nonsense, working class would see other working class people as allies and not enemies.

Oh, and by the way, Trump's pure hatred of foreign people and especially foreign students is leading to massive brain drain. Harvard's student body is something like 30 percent international literally because native borns are not up to par and this goes for so many sectors when it comes to engineering and scientific research. "Shielding" these sectors from foreigners is actually a detriment to society as we deliberately slow advancement in science and technology over some xenophobic nonsense while we also refuse to improve our own school systems and are quite literally going out of our way to worsen them.

 

[j brown's body]

It would likely happen much faster than the long term population reduction that results from a lower birth rate.

It has been declining for 20 years.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Many people come here to look for work when there are jobs available and leave or dont come here when they arent.

I believe that after the 2008 mortgage meltdown, people were crossing the border more to leave than to come here.

It's a remarkable example of free market regulating itself.

The problem is their home countries will undergo the same transitions. Moreover, many people here illegally have been here for years if not decades and have ties here that make leaving difficult. (This is why breaking up marriages and ripping parents from their children needlessly is unconscionable)

My point in all this is that we think of immigration and illegal immigration in a context where there are jobs we simply don’t have the workers here to fill, if jobs were scarce here, even the most progressive among us would likely have a different perspective.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

It has been declining for 20 years.

Yes, but it’s not an acute problem in terms of filling jobs yet. In fact, there is evidence that AI is already making entry level skilled jobs more scarce. Even with less kids, those kids are having a harder time finding jobs in their field.

 

[j brown's body]

The problem is their home countries will undergo the same transitions. Moreover, many people here illegally have been here for years if not decades and have ties here that make leaving difficult. (This is why breaking up marriages and ripping parents from their children needlessly is unconscionable)

My point in all this is that we think of immigration and illegal immigration in a context where there are jobs we simply don’t have the workers here to fill, if jobs were scarce here, even the most progressive among us would likely have a different perspective.

If the jobs aren't here, they're much less likely to come.

 

[j brown's body]

Yes, but it’s not an acute problem in terms of filling jobs yet. In fact, there is evidence that AI is already making entry level skilled jobs more scarce. Even with less kids, those kids are having a harder time finding jobs in their field.

It may well. Be. Trump's massive deportation has lowered the umbers of people in the labor force because the native population can't keep up.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

If the jobs aren't here, they're much less likely to come.

If there is a better shot here than in their home countries, they are going to come here - even if the odds of finding a job here are low.

I think people have this notion that everything will work out great, maybe, but don’t count on it. The fuse for the AI mass job displacement time bomb is much shorter than the fuse for the population decline time bomb.

 

[j brown's body]

If there is a better shot here than in their home countries, they are going to come here - even if the odds of finding a job here are low.

I think people have this notion that everything will work out great, maybe, but don’t count on it. The fuse for the AI mass job displacement time bomb is much shorter than the fuse for the population decline time bomb.

Maybe. Maybe not. When they leave here during economic downturns, they aren't returning to boom towns.

I guess it depends how great a police state we want to create, and is that solution going to do that much to solve the problem of the AI unemployment explosion.

Otherwise, we might see how eager those forced out of meaningful jobs and living on a guaranteed basic income to take up even skilled immigrant labor.

 

[Integrityrespec]

Let me preface this by pointing out that this is a hypothetical. I am not in favor of rounding up and deporting otherwise law abiding people that have been here for years, are working, and have formed ties here - particularly family ties here.

I have worked in software engineering/devops for over 25 years now. At the rate of advancement in Reasoning LLMs (Large Language Models), and the amount of research and investment going into them, it is possible that over the course of the next 3 to 10 years, we see massive white collar layoffs. We could quite literally see tens of millions of white collar workers laid off with positions in finance, marketing, engineering, tech, hr, and creative fields reduced by 50% or more. I am not saying this will happen, or is likely, but it is a reasonable possibility - and this would occur must faster than any other economic transformation in the history of civilization. This wouldn't be the slow decline of manufacturing employment, or the slow industrial transition that took over 150 years. This would occur over just a few years, an economic displacement like never before in civilization.

There are those who argue for Universal Basic Income as a response to this disruption. While well-intentioned, I believe it’s impractical. Many displaced professionals—especially those far from retirement—are unlikely to accept a passive income in place of meaningful work. Instead, they may seek roles in skilled trades or healthcare, leading to increased competition and downward pressure on wages in those sectors. Think about it, carpenters and plumbers make good money because they are in a skilled profession that is physical, and that there is a greater demand for than there are people currently willing to do those jobs. Nurses and respiratory therapists make good money because there is more demand for their jobs than people qualified to do them. Think of world where that all of a sudden isn't the case anymore. Millions of former accountants, software engineers, creative professionals and so on are all of sudden training for those jobs or going to school for them.

Now, think of a world were at the same time, there are 10 or 20 million illegal immigrants here competing for many of the same jobs. Again, this is all a hypothetical, its a thought experiment (which used to be pretty common on Debate Politics, but are very rare these days on here). My point being that it is much easier to be tolerant and accepting of undocumented immigrants, when you are not competing against them.

So if you can break the law and get away with it for 2-3 decades, then you get to escape the law? Hmmmmm.