A rule of thumb.

Torus34 said:

It was amusing to hear Mr. Lawrence Kudlow, a major economic adviser to President of the United States of America Donald Trump, pontificate on the stock market with respect to the present virus outbreak.

I've learned, over many decades, that when someone touts either stocks or horses, a good question to ask is, 'What do you do for a living?' Unless the answer's 'I haven't worked in years. I just take my own advice and apply it,' you know you're talking with someone who can't even support himself with his own tips.

'Nuff said.

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Lawrence Alan Kudlow (born August 20, 1947) is an American financial analyst and former television host serving as Director of the National Economic Council under President Donald Trump since 2018.[1]

Kudlow began his career as a junior financial analyst at the New York Federal Reserve. He soon left government to work on Wall Street at Paine Webber and Bear Stearns as a financial analyst. In 1981, after previously volunteering and working for left-wing politicians and causes, Kudlow joined the administration of Ronald Reagan as associate director for economics and planning in the Office of Management and Budget.[2]

After leaving the Reagan Administration during the second term, Kudlow returned to Wall Street and Bear Stearns, serving as the firm's chief economist from 1987 until 1994. During this time, he also advised the gubernatorial campaign of Christine Todd Whitman on economic issues. In the late 1990s, after a publicized battle with cocaine and alcohol addiction, Kudlow left Wall Street to become an economic media commentator – first with National Review, and later hosting several shows on CNBC.

Kudlow returned to politics in 2018, serving as Gary Cohn's replacement at the National Economic Council.

Larry Kudlow - Wikipedia

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Mycroft said:

I'm thinking Kudlow has forgotten more about Wall Street and government than you will ever know.

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Mycroft said:

I'm thinking Kudlow has forgotten more about Wall Street and government than you will ever know.

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Mycroft said:

I'm thinking Kudlow has forgotten more about Wall Street and government than you will ever know.

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mrjurrs said:

You are probably right, which makes his comments even more self serving.

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mrjurrs said:

You are probably right, which makes his comments even more self serving.

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Torus34 said:

Hi! Like I said.

Regards.

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Mycroft said:

I'm thinking Kudlow has forgotten more about Wall Street and government than you will ever know.

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So you’re looking at $332 billion of profits in the latest quarter, that’s a little less than last quarter. But it’s $20 billion more than the first quarter, $20 billion more than all of ‘06, and about $60-70 billion more than ‘05.

The point of the story is even if Wall Street takes $200-300 billion in mortgage losses, as a result of loan markdowns, profitability is more than adequate to stem the tide and hold us.

There ain’t no recession.

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Yes, economic growth may indeed pause to roughly 2 percent in the next couple of quarters, the result of two years of overly tight money from the Federal Reserve and the ensuing upturn in sub-prime defaults and foreclosures. You can call it Goldilocks 2.0. But you can’t call it a recession.

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Phil Gramm was right: We are in a mental recession, not an actual recession. And the low-tax, free-trade, free-market, capitalist economy is a whole lot more resilient and durable than the pessimistas and declinists would have us believe.

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Mycroft said:

No. It makes him smarter about economics than the lot of you.

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Torus34 said:

It was amusing to hear Mr. Lawrence Kudlow, a major economic adviser to President of the United States of America Donald Trump, pontificate on the stock market with respect to the present virus outbreak.

I've learned, over many decades, that when someone touts either stocks or horses, a good question to ask is, 'What do you do for a living?' Unless the answer's 'I haven't worked in years. I just take my own advice and apply it,' you know you're talking with someone who can't even support himself with his own tips.

'Nuff said.

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mrjurrs said:

I don't doubt that, but I'm self aware enough to know I don't know more than lot's of people. Like doctors. You believe Kudlow 'it's almost airtight' when I believe the CDC 'cross community spread will occur in America'

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Mycroft said:

No. It makes him smarter about economics than the lot of you.

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“We have contained this, I won’t say airtight but pretty close to airtight,” Kudlow told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on Tuesday afternoon.

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Bullseye said:

What are you talking about? Kudlow has been a financial advisor practically his entire career. That wouldn't be true if his "touting" hadn't been valuable and accurate. I'd also guess he follows his own advice.

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Bullseye said:

What are you talking about? Kudlow has been a financial advisor practically his entire career. That wouldn't be true if his "touting" hadn't been valuable and accurate. I'd also guess he follows his own advice.

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JasperL said:

Let's say your area gets rain on average every tenth day. You can be correct 90% of the time by knowing exactly nothing about the weather, and predicting sunny skies every day, no matter what. That's basically Kudlow in a nutshell.

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Bullseye said:

No, it's basically JasperLconomics in a nutshell.

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That said, I think the election-year economy will be stronger than the Fed's estimate -- closer to 3 percent. Too much is being made of both the sub-prime credit problem and the housing downturn. A recent Bank of England study shows that residential mortgage-backed securities in the U.S. total $5.8 trillion. Of that, only $700 billion, or 12 percent, are sub-prime. Even when you add in $600 billion of so-called Alt-A mortgage paper, most of which will not default, the total of these home loans is still less than 20 percent of all mortgage-backed paper.

What's more, the entire market in sub-prime debt is just 1.4 percent of the global equity markets. On any given day, a 1.4 percent drop in world stocks would erase the same amount of value as the collective markdown of all sub-prime-backed bonds to $0. It's just not that big a deal.

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JasperL said:

Here's more Kudlow in Nov 2007, a month before the Great Recession started:

RealClearPolitics - Articles - Three More Years of Goldilocks?

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Bullseye said:

And where the article where you predicted the great recession?

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Bullseye said:

And where the article where you predicted the great recession?

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Mycroft said:

I'm thinking Kudlow has forgotten more about Wall Street and government than you will ever know.

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Kushinator said:

Kudlow has a bachelors of arts in history. :lol:

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Mycroft said:

No. It makes him smarter about economics than the lot of you.

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Bullseye said:

And where the article where you predicted the great recession?

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bongsaway said:

How smart can he be, he works for trump. Isn't he the same larry that lamented the president's tariffs until he took the position and then loved the tariffs?

Nobody around trump is allowed to offer their own opinion. Everything you hear from trump's team might as well be trump speaking.

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Mycroft said:

LOL!!

Decades of experience in economics, Wall Street and government means nothing because he "has a bachelors of arts in history".

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Mycroft said:

I think he realized that Trump is right.

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