A Brotherly Takeover: Could Russia Annex Belarus?

[Rogue Valley]

A Brotherly Takeover: Could Russia Annex Belarus?

Presidents Putin and Lukashenko.

The Kremlin’s recent demand that Belarus integrate further with the Russian state in return for financial support has sparked concerns that Russia may annex its neighbor. Such a move, some analysts suggest, would allow President Vladimir Putin to remain in office after 2024. But this scenario is rife with unpredictable risks for Russia and is based upon several incorrect myths about modern Belarus.

continued @ the link above

Quite frankly, annexing Belarus would add little of value to Russia beyond forcing the "brotherhood" myths and adding additional territory of strategic military value to the Kremlin. But as Moscow learned with its illegal annexation Crimea, international sanctions are crippling and so too is subsidizing these regions. Crimea and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine are a very expensive proposition costing Moscow tens of millions of precious rubles every month when the Russian economy is stagnant and the Russian people are beginning to express their displeasure with the Putin government and its costly foreign entanglements. Rather than annex Belarus outright, Minsk and Moscow will agree to a leveraged "union" arrangement while Belarus retains its national sovereignty. Lukashenko can live with such an arrangement because the remaining option would be similar to the hybrid-warfare pressures Russia is exerting on Ukraine.

 

[Evilroddy]

A Brotherly Takeover: Could Russia Annex Belarus?

Presidents Putin and Lukashenko.



Quite frankly, annexing Belarus would add little of value to Russia beyond forcing the "brotherhood" myths and adding additional territory of strategic military value to the Kremlin. But as Moscow learned with its illegal annexation Crimea, international sanctions are crippling and so too is subsidizing these regions. Crimea and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine are a very expensive proposition costing Moscow tens of millions of precious rubles every month when the Russian economy is stagnant and the Russian people are beginning to express their displeasure with the Putin government and its costly foreign entanglements. Rather than annex Belarus outright, Minsk and Moscow will agree to a leveraged "union" arrangement while Belarus retains its national sovereignty. Lukashenko can live with such an arrangement because the remaining option would be similar to the hybrid-warfare pressures Russia is exerting on Ukraine.

Rogue Valley:

As long as it's a mutually agreed upon merger and not an Anschluss style annexation I can see only Poland and the Balts being nervous and having conniptions about such a merger. If Mr. Putin makes Lukashenko and the Belarussians an offer they can't refuse (in the mafia sense), then the Belarussians have to decide whether to resist a hostile hybrid-warfare campaign and possibly gravitate towards NATO and the West or to bend the knee to Mr. Putin's Russia. Either way the choice is not ours to make, it's their futures and their choice.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Westphalian]

We are already of course in a Union State with highly integrated economies, history, culture, and military forces.


Actually I think the story is a nonsense. Our brothers in Belarus probably want to continue being a sovereign state but with very close ties to Russia, and Moscow has neither a need nor a desire to absorb Belarus into the Federation. Still, it filled a page in Carnegie Moscow and gave the liberal chattering class another talking point.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Rogue Valley:

As long as it's a mutually agreed upon merger and not an Anschluss style annexation I can see only Poland and the Balts being nervous and having conniptions about such a merger. If Mr. Putin makes Lukashenko and the Belarussians an offer they can't refuse (in the mafia sense), then the Belarussians have to decide whether to resist a hostile hybrid-warfare campaign and possibly gravitate towards NATO and the West or to bend the knee to Mr. Putin's Russia. Either way the choice is not ours to make, it's their futures and their choice.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

I believe Lukashenko would avoid hostilities. He will settle for subsidized oil/gas from Russia in exchange for losing a measure of sovereignty. He would remain in power and could continue grooming his son Nikolai to succeed him. Nikolai is the illegitimate offspring of Lukashenko and [presumably] Irina Abelskaya, the presidents former physician.

 

[Evilroddy]

I believe Lukashenko would avoid hostilities. He will settle for subsidized oil/gas from Russia in exchange for losing a measure of sovereignty. He would remain in power and could continue grooming his son Nikolai to succeed him. Nikolai is the illegitimate offspring of Lukashenko and [presumably] Irina Abelskaya, the presidents former physician.

Rogue Valley:

So the big L may have been playing "doctor cure me", eh? I did not know that. There is something absurd about frisky, vicious dictators.

Thanks for the chuckle.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Rogue Valley:

So the big L may have been playing "doctor cure me", eh? I did not know that. There is something absurd about frisky, vicious dictators.

Thanks for the chuckle.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Nikolai (Kolya) 14 accompanies his father almost everywhere. Lukashenko also has older sons.

Alexander Lukashenko with his sons Nikolai, Dmitry and Viktor. (2015)

 

[Evilroddy]

Nikolai (Kolya) 14 accompanies his father almost everywhere. Lukashenko also has older sons.

Alexander Lukashenko with his sons Nikolai, Dmitry and Viktor. (2015)

Rogue Valley:

Yes, I knew about his sons but not about the alleged circumstances regarding the conception of Nikolai. That was new information to me.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

 

[Litwin]

A Brotherly Takeover: Could Russia Annex Belarus?

Presidents Putin and Lukashenko.



Quite frankly, annexing Belarus would add little of value to Russia beyond forcing the "brotherhood" myths and adding additional territory of strategic military value to the Kremlin. But as Moscow learned with its illegal annexation Crimea, international sanctions are crippling and so too is subsidizing these regions. Crimea and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine are a very expensive proposition costing Moscow tens of millions of precious rubles every month when the Russian economy is stagnant and the Russian people are beginning to express their displeasure with the Putin government and its costly foreign entanglements. Rather than annex Belarus outright, Minsk and Moscow will agree to a leveraged "union" arrangement while Belarus retains its national sovereignty. Lukashenko can live with such an arrangement because the remaining option would be similar to the hybrid-warfare pressures Russia is exerting on Ukraine.

i love such speculations, they speed up creation of independent national state (Bielarus´), and split both countries apart faster , which is great


the best belarusian Jhor Tyszkiewicz expert on this subject

 

[Litwin]

Nikolai (Kolya) 14 accompanies his father almost everywhere. Lukashenko also has older sons.

Alexander Lukashenko with his sons Nikolai, Dmitry and Viktor. (2015)

THE youngest one is man already, not bad choice for Belarus

 

[Litwin]

A Brotherly Takeover: Could Russia Annex Belarus?

Presidents Putin and Lukashenko.



Quite frankly, annexing Belarus would add little of value to Russia beyond forcing the "brotherhood" myths and adding additional territory of strategic military value to the Kremlin. But as Moscow learned with its illegal annexation Crimea, international sanctions are crippling and so too is subsidizing these regions. Crimea and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine are a very expensive proposition costing Moscow tens of millions of precious rubles every month when the Russian economy is stagnant and the Russian people are beginning to express their displeasure with the Putin government and its costly foreign entanglements. Rather than annex Belarus outright, Minsk and Moscow will agree to a leveraged "union" arrangement while Belarus retains its national sovereignty. Lukashenko can live with such an arrangement because the remaining option would be similar to the hybrid-warfare pressures Russia is exerting on Ukraine.

Rogue Valley:

As long as it's a mutually agreed upon merger and not an Anschluss style annexation I can see only Poland and the Balts being nervous and having conniptions about such a merger. If Mr. Putin makes Lukashenko and the Belarussians an offer they can't refuse (in the mafia sense), then the Belarussians have to decide whether to resist a hostile hybrid-warfare campaign and possibly gravitate towards NATO and the West or to bend the knee to Mr. Putin's Russia. Either way the choice is not ours to make, it's their futures and their choice.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Maria Snegovaya gave the full answer to this question 57.49 and 1.22.12 . make it show, Mongolian ulus has 0 chance in Belarus

 

[beerftw]

A Brotherly Takeover: Could Russia Annex Belarus?

Presidents Putin and Lukashenko.



Quite frankly, annexing Belarus would add little of value to Russia beyond forcing the "brotherhood" myths and adding additional territory of strategic military value to the Kremlin. But as Moscow learned with its illegal annexation Crimea, international sanctions are crippling and so too is subsidizing these regions. Crimea and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine are a very expensive proposition costing Moscow tens of millions of precious rubles every month when the Russian economy is stagnant and the Russian people are beginning to express their displeasure with the Putin government and its costly foreign entanglements. Rather than annex Belarus outright, Minsk and Moscow will agree to a leveraged "union" arrangement while Belarus retains its national sovereignty. Lukashenko can live with such an arrangement because the remaining option would be similar to the hybrid-warfare pressures Russia is exerting on Ukraine.

Why does your picture make it look like the president of russia and the dictator of belarus have a gay relationship?

 

[Rogue Valley]

Why does your picture make it look like the president of russia and the dictator of belarus have a gay relationship?

Doesn't appear that way to me. Perhaps one needs to be gay to notice such nuance.

 

[Litwin]

Why does your picture make it look like the president of russia and the dictator of belarus have a gay relationship?

one for sure dictator of belarus is on the top in this relation , so he is not a gay according Muscovite criminal - street law , putler is 100% gay

 

[beerftw]

one for sure dictator of belarus is on the top in this relation , so he is not a gay according Muscovite criminal - street law , putler is 100% gay

You must have the biggest collection of putin gay erotic porn ever, and I thought the shirtless putin was too gay, but you guys seem to see that as pg.

 

[beerftw]

Doesn't appear that way to me. Perhaps one needs to be gay to notice such nuance.

You can just caption the picture, belarus leader " but our love is forbidden, if reporters got wind of this" Then russias leader puts his finger to his mouth and says "shhhush, I know how to make the reporters dissapear no one will know"

 

[Litwin]

putlerist N1 here pulled off couple of bad pro - putler jokes , an usual story

 

[Rogue Valley]

You can just caption the picture, belarus leader " but our love is forbidden, if reporters got wind of this" Then russias leader puts his finger to his mouth and says "shhhush, I know how to make the reporters dissapear no one will know"

A safe space is over yonder ------------------>