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6 Months From Georgia General Election, Republicans Slightly Favored to Retain Statehouse, Democrats Slightly Favored to Retain US Senate Seat. (1 Viewer)

Tender Branson

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SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for 11Alive News in Atlanta looks ahead to the general election this November and finds ...

In the race for Governor, should incumbent Republican Brian Kemp be the GOP candidate, as SurveyUSA's primary polling suggests is likely, Kemp in an election today defeats Democrat Stacey Abrams by a 5-point margin, 50% to 45%.

Men back Kemp by 12 points; women narrowly favor Abrams by 2, a 14-point gender gap. Abrams leads by 8 among 18 to 34 year-olds, by 5 among 35 to 49 year-olds; Kemp leads by 10 points among those aged 50 to 64, and by 21 points among the oldest and typically most reliable voters. White voters choose Kemp by a 3:1 margin; Black voters choose Abrams by 7:1. Abrams leads by 76 points among the 5% of the electorate which says voter suppression is the most important issue, by 70 points among the 5% who say racial injustice is most important, and by 20 points among the 9% who point to health care; Kemp is up by 87 points among the 8% of voters most focused on immigration, by 34 points among the 31% who say the economy is the most important issue, and by 12 points among the 10% most focused on crime. Voters with the lowest household incomes back Abrams by an 11-point margin; voters with the highest incomes back Kemp by 24. Abrams leads by 26 points in greater Atlanta, offset by Kemp's 23-point margin in Northwest GA and 12 points in the South and East.

Should former US Senator David Perdue instead be the nominee, the race narrows by 2 points, with Perdue edging Abrams by 3 points, 49% to 46%. Perdue runs similarly but with smaller margins than Kemp among most voting groups, faring 2 points worse among men, 3 points worse among women, for example. Kemp holds 92% of Republicans, Perdue 90%; Abrams takes 90% of Democratic votes running against Kemp, 91% running against Perdue. Among the larger differences: Perdue runs 13 points more strongly than Kemp among those voters focused on crime as the most important issue.

In the race for United States Senator from Georgia, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock today defeats near-certain Republican nominee Herschel Walker by 5 points today, 50% to 45%.

While Warnock holds 95% of the Democratic base, Walker only holds 84% of Republicans, 9% of whom cross over to vote for the incumbent Democrat. Independents break for Warnock, 49% to 43%. Warnock leads by 13 points among women; Walker leads by 3 among men, a 16-point gender gap. Voters 18 to 34 back Warnock by a 20-point margin; 35 to 49 year-olds back Warnock by 12; 50 to 64 year-olds prefer Walker by 3, and those 65+ back Walker by 8. White voters support Walker by a 4:1 margin; Black voters support Warnock by 11:1. Warnock leads by 40 points in urban areas, by 11 in the suburbs; Walker leads by 28 in rural GA.

62% of likely November voters say candidates' plans to address crime will be a major factor in their votes this fall, up and down the ballot; 26% say these plans will be minor factor in their vote; 7% say they won't be a factor at all.
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 Georgia adults online 04/22/22 through 04/27/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 1,587 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 1,278 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.


Kemp +5 and Warnock +5.

I take it.

Warnock is a good fundraiser and Walker is a wife-beating anti-science fool.
 
Warnock seems to have established himself as a solid candidate for the young and diverse crowd in Georgia.

The gender gap in the Senate race is larger than in the Governor race, despite there being a woman on the ballot with Stacy Abrams.

Maybe Walker's abuse of his wife isn't playing so well with the women of Georgia ...
 
If the Dems can hold the GA Senate seat, it would be good news for them in an otherwise bad environment.

They absolutely need to keep their seats in GA, AZ and NV and could then expand their seats in states where Republican incumbents are retiring: OH, PA, NC.
 
Here are more results:


Biden Job Approval at Negative 11 Among Registered Voters in Georgia; Sec of State Raffensperger 11 Points Higher Among Dems than Republicans:

SurveyUSA asked registered voters across the state of Georgia if they strongly or somewhat approved or strongly or somewhat disapproved of the jobs being done by President Joe Biden, Governor Brian Kemp, US Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Subtracting total disapproval from total approval yields Net Approval, reported here from highest to lowest:
  • Plus 10: US Senator Raphael Warnock. 49% approve (25% strongly, 24% somewhat); 39% disapprove (12% somewhat, 27% strongly). Warnock's Net Approval is highest among Biden voters (Plus 81), Democrats (+79), liberals (+74), and African American voters (+69). Warnock's Net Approval is lowest among Trump voters (Minus 59), Republicans (-58), and conservatives (-43). Warnock is at +35 in greater Atlanta, +5 in South and East Georgia, and -7 in the northwestern part of the state (regional breakdowns linked here.)
  • Plus 8: US Senator Jon Ossoff. 44% approve (20% strongly, 24% somewhat); 36% disapprove (14% somewhat, 22% strongly). Net Approval is highest among Biden voters and Democrats (each Plus 70), liberals (+67), and African Americans (+59); lowest among Trump voters and Republicans (each Minus 49), and conservatives (-35).
  • Plus 6: Governor Brian Kemp. 48% approve (14% strongly, 34% somewhat); 42 disapprove (19% somewhat, 23% strongly). +52 among Republicans, +48 among Trump voters, +40 among conservatives. +28 among white voters, -28 among Black voters. -45 among liberals, -35 among Democrats. -10 in Atlanta, +11 in Northwest Georgia, +13 in South and East Georgia.
  • Plus 2: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. 33% approve (8% strongly, 25% somewhat); 31% disapprove (19% somewhat, 12% strongly). Net approval for the Republican incumbent is strongest among Biden voters (+12), lowest among Trump voters (-8). +7 among Democrats, -4 among Republicans. +6 in greater Atlanta, +3 in Northwestern Georgia, -4 in the South and East.
  • Minus 11: President Joe Biden. 43% approve (20% strongly, 23% somewhat); 54% disapprove (14% somewhat, 40% strongly). +69 among Democrats, +66 among those who voted for Biden in 2020, +60 among liberals (but +73 among those who say they are "very liberal," +50 among those who say "liberal." -84 among Trump voters, -83 among Republicans, -58 among conservatives. Minus 46 among white voters, Plus 47 among Black voters.
About the Poll: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 Georgia adults online 04/22/22 through 04/27/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 1,587 were registered to vote and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
 
Warnock has been behind in the polls. Maybe the ad blitz he's running is having an effect?
 
Warnock has been behind in the polls. Maybe the ad blitz he's running is having an effect?

His opponent is a wife-beating anti-science Republican, while he's a pastor.

This might have an effect on GA women and the centrist crowd, who doesn't like such extremists like Walker (even if he's a former popular NFL player).

I think this will remain close until November, but I have some feeling the foolish Walker can still win because the R wave will sweep into office a lot of lunatics this year ...
 
His opponent is a wife-beating anti-science Republican, while he's a pastor.

This might have an effect on GA women and the centrist crowd, who doesn't like such extremists like Walker (even if he's a former popular NFL player).

I think this will remain close until November, but I have some feeling the foolish Walker can still win because the R wave will sweep into office a lot of lunatics this year ...
Yeah, Democrats really turned people off by ignoring real people and wasting all of their political capital on special interest legislation like BBB. Warnock's not a bad guy. I much prefer him over John Ossoff.
 

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