538 polling

[Allan]

Swing States

Nevada



Arizona

 

[Winston]

I’ve heard they are more reliable than RCP.

 

[Slartibartfast]

The economist is also showing a 3+ point spread lately as well.

This recent movement is too early to be a convention bump as well. Before then it was in the 2.5ish point range.

 

[Allan]

Wisconsin




Pennsylvania




North Carolina

 

[Bok Tuklo]

Because of America’s bullshit system that thwarts the political will of its citizens and gives us the tyranny of the minority.

 

[Allan]

Michigan



Georgia

 

[Callen]

Important to note...538 does not average in the old Biden numbers as RCP does. These are straight up Harris/Trump

 

[SMTA]

I’ve heard they are more reliable than RCP.

Nate Silver, the founder, was a statistician who became attracted to the political application of statistics.
He has a solid track record.

 

[Callen]

The momentum is there but now it's...get out the vote!

 

[ALiberalModerate]

It really is astounding how close the election still is. Thirty years ago, Trump would be looking at a Mondale level loss. Yet, we are so polarized, and so many people are misinformed today, that it's very close. Basically, if the election were held today, Harris probably has a 6 in 10 chance of winning.

 

[Allan]

The momentum is there but now it's...get out the vote!

We know based on everything from Dale Carnegie to Gallup Q12 that people are far more motivated by positive encouragement than by negativity and threats.

I'd say the Democrats are on the right path in that regard and they seem to be very effective at executing their strategy.

 

[gbg3]

Quite a difference from RCP, I think in every category. The two paint a very different picture.

538 should make Dems feel much better than RCP would.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Quite a difference from RCP, I think in every category. The two paint a very different picture.

538 should make Dems feel much better than RCP would.

RCP doesn’t have the most up to date information.

 

[Callen]

Quite a difference from RCP, I think in every category. The two paint a very different picture.

538 should make Dems feel much better than RCP would.

538 is Harris/Trump straight up. They have removed Biden from the averages. RCP still has Biden's numbers in the averages which dilutes the numbers.

 

[gbg3]

I’ve heard they are more reliable than RCP.

I don't use 538 regularly so I just went on it to check out some of these "averages". I got as far as Trump vs Harris only.

I immediately notice 4 instances of "Outward Intelligence" and 3 instances of "Big Village". I believe these 7 poll results are all in the average - agreed? I follow polls closely and I was surprised I'd never heard of these (and other included pollsters too, like Embold Research). So, I went in search of pollster ratings for this group. Well, luckily, 538 rates pollsters with a very helpful list of ratings/rankings. They rank 277, numbered, ranked and rated pollsters and then they add a long list of pollsters, at the bottom, following the ranked 277 pollsters. The unnumbered group at the end of the 277 have no data or ratings - just a list of names only.

Well, Outward Intelligence, Big Village, and Embold Research are not in with the numbered or unnumbered list. So, I just googled those names and I could not find any rankings or ratings of them.

So back to the average page on 538, these 3 pollsters I discussed account for 8 of the 18 polls which appear to create the 538 average. These 8 polls are on the high end of favorable to Harris and all 18 on the page have Harris in some sort of a lead over Trump.

I'm curious as to what has led you to the conclusion "they are more reliable than RCP"?

 

[trixare4kids]

RCP doesn’t have the most up to date information.

Nate Silver is on record saying the election is a tossup.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Nate Silver is on record saying the election is a tossup.

Pretty much all aggregators show it as a tossup at the moment.

 

[trixare4kids]

Pretty much all aggregators show it as a tossup at the moment.

Glad to see that you're not in the group who thinks differently.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Glad to see that you're not in the group who thinks differently.

Who is in this group that you have decided exists?

 

[trixare4kids]

Who is in this group that you have decided exists?

The Kamala people.

 

[Slartibartfast]

The Kamala people.

Got any names?

 

[ataraxia]

It really is astounding how close the election still is. Thirty years ago, Trump would be looking at a Mondale level loss. Yet, we are so polarized, and so many people are misinformed today, that it's very close. Basically, if the election were held today, Harris probably has a 6 in 10 chance of winning.

Yes. I remember how Hillary Clinton was ahead in every poll, every month, until….Election Day.

It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

Infographic: Trump vs. Clinton: a year at the polls

This infographic shows poll results pertaining to the US presidential election 2016 from August 2015 to August 2016.

www.statista.com

 

[The Hairy Fiddler]

View attachment 67528153

Swing States

Nevada

View attachment 67528151

Arizona

View attachment 67528152

I'm a little sick and tired of the liberals here claiming the race is a toss-up. Harris'lead is growing and it will continue to grow. America will never allow that piece of shit anywhere near the White House again.

 

[NWRatCon]

I’ve heard they are more reliable than RCP.

Probably from me...

 

[radioman]

I'm a little sick and tired of the liberals here claiming the race is a toss-up. Harris'lead is growing and it will continue to grow. America will never allow that piece of shit anywhere near the White House again.

While I appreciate your optimism, the fact is that millions continue to support TFG.
It is imperative that the Dems get out the vote and kick this punk to the curb once and for all.
Complacency and overconfidence cost Clinton in 2016.
I don't want such overconfidence to be a factor in this election.