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512 Paths to the White House

Rhapsody1447 said:
512 Paths to the White House - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

A fantastic visualization of the various paths to the White House. I'm sorry conservative brethren, but the road ahead looks nigh impassable. For people who think Romney will win, which path do you predict he'll get there by?
Click to expand...

are you someone who is hoping Obama wins so you can damn the GOP for not picking a social fascist? citing the NYT at this point is rather worthless given its doing everything possible to suppress pro Romney votes
 
TurtleDude said:
are you someone who is hoping Obama wins so you can damn the GOP for not picking a social fascist? citing the NYT at this point is rather worthless given its doing everything possible to suppress pro Romney votes
Click to expand...

An Obama victory is the last thing I'm hoping for. This isn't a cite of the NYT. It's an interactive map of the various paths to the White House.
 
NY Times lays out the election the clearest way possible

512 Paths to the White House - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

What this nifty still gizmo does is basically remove every decided state from the equation and lay out the remaining battleground states in such a fashion as to display every possible combination of how those states could turn out, and using that data shows the combinations were Obama wins and those were Romney wins. While it doesn't take into account polls, like Romney's good lead in North Carolina or Obama's in Wisconsin, it does show that Obama has a much shorter route to victory and many more ways to get there.

Its tough to foresee a Romney victory in a few days
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
An Obama victory is the last thing I'm hoping for. This isn't a cite of the NYT. It's an interactive map of the various paths to the White House.
Click to expand...

So I ask what was your purpose of posting that? its amazing the number of so called conservatives who seem to be defeatist, the lefties are not going that
 
Re: NY Times lays out the election the clearest way possible

Moderator's Warning:
Threads merged.
 
TurtleDude said:
are you someone who is hoping Obama wins so you can damn the GOP for not picking a social fascist? citing the NYT at this point is rather worthless given its doing everything possible to suppress pro Romney votes
Click to expand...

Dude there's nothing biased about this, its nothing but facts how can you deny this is the situation in the election?
 
TurtleDude said:
So I ask what was your purpose of posting that? its amazing the number of so called conservatives who seem to be defeatist, the lefties are not going that
Click to expand...

I posted the graphic for members to use and make predictions. My editorial was based on the fact that Romney has a much tougher path to victory than Obama does.
 
The post realistic path to a Romney victory that I can see is he wins Florida and North Carolina (both likely from my knowledge) and picks up VA, CO, NH, IA, NV with Obama taking WI and OH.
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
The post realistic path to a Romney victory that I can see is he wins Florida and North Carolina (both likely from my knowledge) and picks up VA, CO, NH, IA, NV with Obama taking WI and OH.
Click to expand...

I have seen internal polling data on Ohio I suspect that those who are counting Ohio as an Obama win might be surprised. Romney drew 30K plus last night. Michele Obama got 2600 at Miami University. Obama is here tomorrow at UC-where many of those attending cannot vote in Ohio

Jack Nicklaus and Gold Medalist Scott Hamilton are coming to Cincinnati tomorrow for Romney

the secretary of state is now suggesting that there is going to be problems with provisional ballots due to people requesting absentee ballots, not filling them out and then voting in person
 
TurtleDude said:
I have seen internal polling data on Ohio I suspect that those who are counting Ohio as an Obama win might be surprised. Romney drew 30K plus last night. Michele Obama got 2600 at Miami University. Obama is here tomorrow at UC-where many of those attending cannot vote in Ohio

Jack Nicklaus and Gold Medalist Scott Hamilton are coming to Cincinnati tomorrow for Romney

the secretary of state is now suggesting that there is going to be problems with provisional ballots due to people requesting absentee ballots, not filling them out and then voting in person
Click to expand...

This is my hope for Tuesday. If Romney can take Ohio, he'll likely win the White House.
 
TurtleDude said:
I have seen internal polling data on Ohio I suspect that those who are counting Ohio as an Obama win might be surprised. Romney drew 30K plus last night. Michele Obama got 2600 at Miami University. Obama is here tomorrow at UC-where many of those attending cannot vote in Ohio

Jack Nicklaus and Gold Medalist Scott Hamilton are coming to Cincinnati tomorrow for Romney

the secretary of state is now suggesting that there is going to be problems with provisional ballots due to people requesting absentee ballots, not filling them out and then voting in person
Click to expand...

What about the polls?
 
jerry7 said:
Fla, NC, Col, Ohio and Va or Wis. Plus the NY Times assumes Pa. is not in play. I disagree.
Click to expand...

I think the only possible exclusions from the graphic are MI and PA... but I think Romney taking those states is a pipe dream at this point.
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
I think the only possible exclusions from the graphic are MI and PA... but I think Romney taking those states is a pipe dream at this point.
Click to expand...

Michigan is a pipe dream not Pa. In 2010 both state houses and 2/3 of Congressional seats were won by republicans. Corbett and Toomey won statewide. The polls are close and 11 million dollars worth of Romney ads went up in the past week along with robo calls by PACs. Romney is campaigning in suburban Phila. tomorrow. The western part of the state is coal country. I live in Montgomery Co. in suburban Phila. which went heavily for Obama in 2008 and the intensity and support for Obama is nothing like it was.
 
Very cool graphic. Thanks for posting.
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
512 Paths to the White House - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

A fantastic visualization of the various paths to the White House. I'm sorry conservative brethren, but the road ahead looks nigh impassable. For people who think Romney will win, which path do you predict he'll get there by?
Click to expand...

I have Romney winning and the election called before midnight...

I have Romney taking Illinois and potentially New York.... If Romney wins either the election is over.
 
Mr.Nick said:
I have Romney winning and the election called before midnight...

I have Romney taking Illinois and potentially New York.... If Romney wins either the election is over.
Click to expand...

new York and Illinois> hmmmm
 
Mr.Nick said:
I have Romney winning and the election called before midnight...

I have Romney taking Illinois and potentially New York.... If Romney wins either the election is over.
Click to expand...

6RWu2.gif
 
TurtleDude said:
are you someone who is hoping Obama wins so you can damn the GOP for not picking a social fascist? citing the NYT at this point is rather worthless given its doing everything possible to suppress pro Romney votes
Click to expand...

:lol:
It's just a flowchart based on simple electoral mathematics. There's literally no element of opinion in it at all; if Romney wins certain combinations of states, he wins the election. If Obama wins certain combinations of states, he wins the election. And lashing out at other people (or the NYT itself) because you don't like the numbers does not change the numbers.
 
Really, in terms of realistic hopes...it's coming down to winning Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina and pairing that with either Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire.

Romney is down 2.5% or better in each of those three according to RCP. If he can put together the big 4 plus any of those 3, that's his best shot.

If he loses Virginia or North Carolina out of the big four, he's going to need all three rather than one of the three.

If he doesn't win Ohio out of the above big four, the only realistic path I see would be Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire along with Nevada (that's at 2.8% Obama)
 
TurtleDude said:
new York and Illinois> hmmmm
Click to expand...

Illinois is 90% red.

Chicago/Crook County lost a lot of population (20%) over the past decade.

I use numbers to determine electoral votes...

Romney could win New York because the storm messed the city up really nice - and like Illinois many counties in New York are conservative.

I see masses going to vote Obama out of office and a bunch of those who got Obama elected last time not voting, voting for Romney or voting 3rd party....

Hell, allegedly the popular vote is 50/50 so if Illinois, New York, California etc are locks then what does that say about the other states? Obviously they would have to be in Romneys favor...
 
Mr.Nick said:
I have Romney winning and the election called before midnight...

I have Romney taking Illinois and potentially New York.... If Romney wins either the election is over.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the laugh.
 
jerry7 said:
Fla, NC, Col, Ohio and Va or Wis. Plus the NY Times assumes Pa. is not in play. I disagree.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin is no longer "in play" 538 shows that most polls have Obama up by as much as 8 points. He has Ohio up by as many as 5. But we won't really know until Tuesday.
 
Rhapsody1447 said:
The post realistic path to a Romney victory that I can see is he wins Florida and North Carolina (both likely from my knowledge) and picks up VA, CO, NH, IA, NV with Obama taking WI and OH.
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt Romney will win Iowa or Nevada.
 
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