3/22/2016 Primaries

[poweRob]

Republicans:

Arizona: (winner take all)
Utah

Democrats:

Arizona
Utah
Idaho


Bernie will Take Idaho and Utah pretty easily I believe but I'm curious as to how Arizona will pan out. Lots of retirees there and the seniors tend to go for Hillary.

 

[cpwill]

Republicans:

Arizona: (winner take all)
Utah

Democrats:

Arizona
Utah
Idaho

Bernie will Take Idaho and Utah pretty easily I believe but I'm curious as to how Arizona will pan out. Lots of retirees there and the seniors tend to go for Hillary.

538 Has Hillary with a 51.1% chance of winning, but Bernie with only a 22.7% chance.... begging the question, where is the other 26.2%?

 

[poweRob]

538 Has Hillary with a 51.1% chance of winning, but Bernie with only a 22.7% chance.... begging the question, where is the other 26.2%?

It'll come down to turnout and where that turnout is. AZ seniors are solid voters and tend to be very right wing there. So if they turn out but do so on the GOP primary... that'll help Bernie. I'm thinking this may happen because of Trump and immigration which is a massive issue in AZ. And the other turnout factor is latino turnout which I'm thinking will favor Bernie in AZ. He's getting the big latino endorsements there.

Bernie Sanders Gets More Endorsements From Arizona Latino Leaders

Activist Group LUCHA Joins Other Arizona Latino Voices in Endorsing Bernie Sanders​

But latinos are notorious for being flaky voters and just not showing up to the polls while with the elderly turnout... you can bank on it.

 

[MrT]

I tend to agree with these predictions, although I believe Arizona will go for Hillary by double digits and Bernie will win Utah/Idaho by single digits. The polling data in Utah is a bit all over the place, but that's probably to be expected with a caucus state. Moreover, this analysis from 538 puts the win probabilities for Bernie at 75% and 82% for Idaho and Utah, respectively. It is only at 40% in Arizona.

On the Republican side, I believe that Trump will win Arizona by double digits while Cruz will win Utah by double digits and possibly obtain more than 50% which would lock down all of the delegates. I think the later is probably not going to happen considering that Kasich is still in the race and will probably pull some votes.

 

[cpwill]

It'll come down to turnout and where that turnout is. AZ seniors are solid voters and tend to be very right wing there. So if they turn out but do so on the GOP primary... that'll help Bernie. I'm thinking this may happen because of Trump and immigration which is a massive issue in AZ. And the other turnout factor is latino turnout which I'm thinking will favor Bernie in AZ. He's getting the big latino endorsements there.

Bernie Sanders Gets More Endorsements From Arizona Latino Leaders

Activist Group LUCHA Joins Other Arizona Latino Voices in Endorsing Bernie Sanders​

I don't know. I have to wonder what portion of Seniors come out for Trump, effecting the Democrat race.


The big question for me is (as MrT brings out) whether or not Kasich is able to keep Cruz from getting to the 50% threshold in Utah. Slippery little turd is doing his best to hand it to Trump.

 

[poweRob]

The hope I have for Bernie in az is that Hillary has pretty much stopped actual campaigning and is just doing fundraisers in States not in this primary while Bernie has been hitting the turf hard this last week.

Hopefully that will excite his supporters enough to turn out. The hard thing is he now has to overcome the media who is helping Hillary write Bernie off as impossibley too far behind which would suppress his bases' turnout and is just a plain bs narrative.

 

[azgreg]

The hope I have for Bernie in az is that Hillary has pretty much stopped actual campaigning and is just doing fundraisers in States not in this primary while Bernie has been hitting the turf hard this last week.

Hopefully that will excite his supporters enough to turn out. The hard thing is he now has to overcome the media who is helping Hillary write Bernie off as impossibley too far behind which would suppress his bases' turnout and is just a plain bs narrative.

Arizona is a closed primary state. I'm not sure what the registration breakdown is for senior voters, but I assume it's overwhelmingly republican.

 

[poweRob]

Arizona is a closed primary state. I'm not sure what the registration breakdown is for senior voters, but I assume it's overwhelmingly republican.

Well thats not good. No independents for Bernie... which is how he usually wins.

 

[Chomsky]

I tend to agree with these predictions, although I believe Arizona will go for Hillary by double digits and Bernie will win Utah/Idaho by single digits. The polling data in Utah is a bit all over the place, but that's probably to be expected with a caucus state. Moreover, this analysis from 538 puts the win probabilities for Bernie at 75% and 82% for Idaho and Utah, respectively. It is only at 40% in Arizona.

On the Republican side, I believe that Trump will win Arizona by double digits while Cruz will win Utah by double digits and possibly obtain more than 50% which would lock down all of the delegates. I think the later is probably not going to happen considering that Kasich is still in the race and will probably pull some votes.

I don't know. I have to wonder what portion of Seniors come out for Trump, effecting the Democrat race.


The big question for me is (as MrT brings out) whether or not Kasich is able to keep Cruz from getting to the 50% threshold in Utah. Slippery little turd is doing his best to hand it to Trump.

If Sen. Cruz does cross the 50% winner-take-all mark, that's not just throwing another nail into Trump's "won't make 1237" coffin, but will really give Cruz all the psychological & political impetus he needs to validly argue he deserves to stand with Trump to the end and into a contested nomination.

Soon upcoming WI is going to be a crucial state in the Trump-Cruz nomination dance! Everything I've seen in print indicates the Walker-Koch machine is in full boogie working with Cruz' campaign on the ground. Cruz might have the best ground-game on the GOP side, so these guys together make a very potent triumvirate! I don't see Trump coming close to them on the ground in terms of organizing; he's going to have to do it through personal charisma and motivated individual supporters.

 

[PoS]

The hope I have for Bernie in az is that Hillary has pretty much stopped actual campaigning and is just doing fundraisers in States not in this primary while Bernie has been hitting the turf hard this last week.

Hopefully that will excite his supporters enough to turn out. The hard thing is he now has to overcome the media who is helping Hillary write Bernie off as impossibley too far behind which would suppress his bases' turnout and is just a plain bs narrative.

LOL time to throw in the towel, Rob. Bernie is toast. :2razz:

 

[OrphanSlug]

Republicans:

Arizona: (winner take all)
Utah

Democrats:

Arizona
Utah
Idaho


Bernie will Take Idaho and Utah pretty easily I believe but I'm curious as to how Arizona will pan out. Lots of retirees there and the seniors tend to go for Hillary.

My prediction... nothing changes. Trump is still way out front over what is left of the Republican hopefuls, and Hillary is even further out front of Sanders.

 

[Chomsky]

Republicans:

Arizona: (winner take all)
Utah

Democrats:

Arizona
Utah
Idaho


Bernie will Take Idaho and Utah pretty easily I believe but I'm curious as to how Arizona will pan out. Lots of retirees there and the seniors tend to go for Hillary.

Thanks for the thread start, Rob.

These have become among my favorite threads here at DP, when I'm available to make it. :thumbs:

Actually, even when I miss the debate or in real-time results, I enjoy running through the thread to catch the action from a DP perspective!

 

[azgreg]

Well thats not good. No independents for Bernie... which is how he usually wins.

Unless a lot of people did what I did. I re-registered as a republican so I can vote against Trump. After the primary I'll re-register as an independent.

 

[Chomsky]

My prediction... nothing changes. Trump is still way out front over what is left of the Republican hopefuls, and Hillary is even further out front of Sanders.

True, but if Sen Cruz takes all of UT, and wins the soon upcoming WI, it does change the complexion a bit! Cruz gains more legitimacy, and a contested nomination becomes a reality (I believe).

 

[OrphanSlug]

True, but if Sen Cruz takes all of UT, and wins the soon upcoming WI, it does change the complexion a bit! Cruz gains more legitimacy, and a contested nomination becomes a reality (I believe).

I have this terrible suspicion that regardless of what the delegate count looks like, the convention will still have entertainment.

 

[Chomsky]

I have this terrible suspicion that regardless of what the delegate count looks like, the convention will still have entertainment.

Fair point.

But the better Sen Cruz does, the more validity and political impetus there is to defy Mr. Trump, then.

 

[azgreg]

I have this terrible suspicion that regardless of what the delegate count looks like, the convention will still have entertainment.

I hope so.

 

[Centrehalf]

True, but if Sen Cruz takes all of UT, and wins the soon upcoming WI, it does change the complexion a bit! Cruz gains more legitimacy, and a contested nomination becomes a reality (I believe).

Do you think the GOP movers and shakers would install Cruz?

 

[haymarket]

Do you think the GOP movers and shakers would install Cruz?

We can only hope so. Then it destroys the GOP in more ways than just one.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Do you think the GOP movers and shakers would install Cruz?

I would not rule it out, even with a likely Trump temper tantrum right to an Independent ticket bid.

 

[Centrehalf]

We can only hope so. Then it destroys the GOP in more ways than just one.

I agree, it would. It won't happen though.

 

[Centrehalf]

I would not rule it out, even with a likely Trump temper tantrum right to an Independent ticket bid.

I've ruled it out. I think Cruz is the bigger threat to them and they know that so cooler heads will prevail and there's no way he gets the nomination.

 

[OrphanSlug]

I've ruled it out. I think Cruz is the bigger threat to them and they know that so cooler heads will prevail and there's no way he gets the nomination.

Wait a minute.

You think Cruz is a bigger threat to Establishment Republicans than Trump is?

 

[Centrehalf]

Wait a minute.

You think Cruz is a bigger threat to Establishment Republicans than Trump is?

Yes, by a country mile.

 

[azgreg]

Do you think the GOP movers and shakers would install Cruz?

If the "movers and shakers" have the opportunity to install someone Cruz will be wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy down the list.