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2024 US Congressional Election night discussion

RedAkston

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This thread is for discussion surrounding the Congressional Election. Any off-topic posts or posts that violate the rules will be dealt with. Make sure to read this stickied thread here prior to posting in this forum.
 
Roadvirus said:
Fox News calls Texas for Cruz.

Nice try, Dems.
Click to expand...
Allred (Colin who?) is less appealing than Cruz, which is really saying something.
 
Looking like a 2020 part #2 gonna be razor tight
 
Has anyone been following the House races? I'm clueless about how they are going and I wish I knew something.
 
Assuming Republicans take the Senate, will Democrats still want to get rid of that Jim Crow relic, the filibuster? I’m going to take a wild guess and say “no.”
 
All Democrats can hope for now is the triple-flip parlay, which had good odds.
The two DEMs in AZ-01 & AZ-06 are winning their GOP incumbents.
Biden won these CDs by barely 1.5% and 0.1% respectively adjusted to 2022 remaps.

Arizona 2024 General Election

Arizona 2024 General Election
www.thegreenpapers.com
 
Bret Baier just reported that it's looking like the Dems have a pretty good chance of flipping the House. I'm not sure which seats - but he said it looks like it might be a bright spot for the Dems tonight.
 
Ahlevah said:
Assuming Republicans take the Senate, will Democrats still want to get rid of that Jim Crow relic, the filibuster?
Click to expand...
Two Democrats, Manchin and Sinema, prevented what you accused
from reaching a 51-50 vote, with all GOPs opposing.
Each side calls the filibuster a relic when they have it used against them.
You’ll remember McConnell setting all-time records for filibustering during Obama.
Trump begged for McConnell to get rid of the filibuster and he wouldn’t, but McConnell will be gone in 2027.
Ahlevah said:
I’m going to take a wild guess and say “no.”
Click to expand...
Never fear though, you’ll have reconciliation.
Reconciliation must live by the Byrd rule, which Manchin believed in with McConnell.

Budget Terms and Processes — and Why They Matter

Understanding what’s happening on Capitol Hill requires an understanding of the federal budget process, which is notoriously technical, complex and arcane.
www.pgpf.org

My is on Sen. Thune as the next Senate Majority Leader.
I prefer GOP Senators from the Great Plains if I have to have one.
 
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Linc said:
My is on Sen. Thune as the next Senate Majority Leader.
I prefer GOP Senators from the Great Plains if I have to have one.
Click to expand...

My bet is Democrats will introduce a motion to impeach Trump on January 3rd. They’ll never learn, such will they be convinced that Adolf Hitler was just elected President of the United States.
 
Schumer spent $80 million trying to take out Ted Cruz. That money would have been far better spent in PA, WI and MI. Thanks Chuck. I sense you're about to lose your party leadership position.
 
S
Dems are still ahead in the two AZ seats they want to flip, plus one in Iowa, and to flip 3 in NY.
DEMs will lose 3 in N.C. and are barely leading in their CD-01, with flips in LA and AL.
DEMs are barely holding off challengers in CO-8 and NM-2, while failing to flip CO-3.
CA looks good for multiple flips for DEMs but it’s early and the voter totals are embarrassingly low.
Other important states left in play for the House are PA, MI, OR, WA, and the DEM in AK.
All specific voter totals can be found here:

The Green Papers: 2024 General Election

2024 General Election
www.thegreenpapers.com
 
Elissa Slotkin has taken the lead in the MI Senate race by about 12,000 votes. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake in the AZ Senate race by about 61,000 votes.
 
The AP has called the MI Senate race for Slotkin. In Arizona, Gallego leads by about 60,000 votes with around a million more ballots left to be counted.
 
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It looks like DEM Porter threw away her CA House seat for a run for the Senate.

Georgia saw an average margin of victory for the 5 DEM seats of 45.48%. (I know.)
GOPs had an ave margin of victory of 27.71% in their seats.
The average margin of victory for all 14 seats was 34.1%. (North Carolina is worse.)

GA ave ~ 360,000 votes per CD, probably a mix of high turnout and being close to a 15th CD.
(North Carolina averaged ~ 400,000 votes AFTER gaining a 14th CD this decade.)

California averaged only 193,000 votes per CD, fertile territory
for further GOP flips and possible further losses of CDs.
Arizona had its usual huge underperformances in DEM CDs 3 and 7, affecting statewide races.
While this is specific to CA, all state voter totals can easily be accessed here.

California 2024 General Election

California 2024 General Election
www.thegreenpapers.com

Be assured that one of the parties is already working on the 2030 midterm remaps.
They’re the same party that employed REDMAP 2010 to start a domination of this century.

The following site is data used by all campaigns, but the scheme started with GOPs in 2010.
It’ll take them a few weeks to get the 2024 potus election done by CD.

Daily Kos Elections' presidential election results by House district have moved to The Downballot!

Daily Kos Elections is now The Downballot! You can find all of our calculations of presidential election results by congressional district here: the-db.co/presbycd Please update your bookmarks!
www.dailykos.com
Every History teacher I knew would use this if looking at 2026 elections.

United States Congress elections, 2026

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics
ballotpedia.org
 
Dr. Shah is now down by nearly 10,000 votes in AZ CD one to Schweikert. I don't think that there is going to be enough of a blue shift for him to catch up. Hopefully, I'm wrong.
 
My best guess is the House will be 221-214 republican
 
I am adding 1 to the republican total making it 222-213. No change. Everyone expected the democrats to take the House.
 
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