2022 Senate

[Jay59]

Easier to do that with a population of like, 1.

This is not Wyoming or even Vermont. New Hampshire is the third-largest population in New England.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

This is not Wyoming or even Vermont. New Hampshire is the third-largest population in New England.

I looked up the stats. You are correct! My apologies. With a population just over 1 million, it is significant when it comes to the sheer amount of people!

Oregon is behaving very weirdly at the governor level. Last poll had the Republican on top by 4. I wonder if this will carry over to the Senate?

 

[Jay59]

I looked up the stats. You are correct! My apologies. With a population just over 1 million, it is significant when it comes to the sheer amount of people!

Your definition of just over is at odds with the rest of the planet. Half a million households are a lot to contact individually.

Oregon is behaving very weirdly at the governor level. Last poll had the Republican on top by 4. I wonder if this will carry over to the Senate?

Oregon has received a large-ish influx of new people, hence the new House seat.

Also, redistricting may have made a Democratic seat vulnerable. Gerrymandering has been known to bite back.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Your definition of just over is at odds with the rest of the planet. Half a million households are a lot to contact individually.


Oregon has received a large-ish influx of new people, hence the new House seat.

Also, redistricting may have made a Democratic seat vulnerable. Gerrymandering has been known to bite back.

First bold - I conceded your point. Not sure what else you want me to do here.

Second bold - Do you think the majority of the new people are Republican or Democrat?

 

[Jay59]

First bold - I conceded your point. Not sure what else you want me to do here.

OK Thanks.

Second bold - Do you think the majority of the new people are Republican or Democrat?

No.

I suspect that the combination of Republicans and independents is greater than the Democrats but I don't know.

It's worth noting that a sitting Representative was ousted in a primary challenge. That is in the Democrat-held 5th District, which includes Salem. UVa has changed the projection from Democrat-leaning to toss-up. Republicans have a solid chance to go from one seat out of five to three seats out of six. The party will be strongly motivated

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Oregon's polling behavior also behaves weirdly. In 2016, for example, it briefly flickered in Trump's favor for like 2 weeks before going back to Biden. Not average, just individual polls.

What's odd is you say that Salem, Oregon went to a toss-up, and could win 3 out of 5, yet there are no head-to-head polling reported by FiveThirtyEight at all -- how does one predict an outcome, especially on a new matchup, if there are no polls?

 

[gbg3]

Still not much polling but I've been watching the betting market on this PA Senate race - expected to potentially be the closest Senate contest in the nation. What was a tie recently is slowly widening.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Tim Ryan just gained six points and is up +4 over Vance in the last poll (most recent poll, not average).

Evan McMullin looking good in Utah so far.

 

[Jay59]

This is not on the Senate per se, but Republican primaries for Colorado and Arizona are coming up. Not to be outdone, Democrats will choose who will run against Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Once the candidates for the general election are know, look for the pundits to reassess the races.

Seven key primary races still to come before November

May contained a whirlwind of crucial primaries that offered several tea leaves about the directions of the U.S.’s two major parties and their chances in November. However, there are still sco…

thehill.com

Also relevant, President Biden's popularity is threatening to break through a support level. He had not been below 40% in the averages but that changed this week. Somewhat related, the more sparsely polled generic ballot is also down. Currently at 3.5%, the magic number for Republican control is thought to be around 5%.

 

[gbg3]

Nice poll out for Fetterman yesterday. He's got to like that one.

 

[Callen]

Nice poll out for Fetterman yesterday. He's got to like that one.

Me too!

 

[Tender Branson]

The Senate doesn't really look that bad for the Democrats right now, with chances to pick up Republican-held seats in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Obviously, if a Republican wave materializes in November, polling should become much worse for Democrats after Labour Day in September.

We will see what happens.

Maybe Americans want checks and balances like in 2018, with one side winning the House big-time and keep the other side in the game in the Senate, or there will be a total wipeout like in 2014, 2010 and 2006.

 

[gbg3]

The Senate doesn't really look that bad for the Democrats right now, with chances to pick up Republican-held seats in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Obviously, if a Republican wave materializes in November, polling should become much worse for Democrats after Labour Day in September.

We will see what happens.

Maybe Americans want checks and balances like in 2018, with one side winning the House big-time and keep the other side in the game in the Senate, or there will be a total wipeout like in 2014, 2010 and 2006.

I think PA has the best chance of a Dem win of that group. I think the other 3 are quite unlikely for a Dem.
Meanwhile, keep a close eye on Nevada and AZ for a strong chance at a Dem loss.

 

[noonereal]

The Lincoln Project has stated that they are going to go after every Republican that has protected Trump during the last 4 years. We'll see how effective they are.

It should make those they go over more popular than ever.

 

[gbg3]

I think Laxalt win this week was quite good for the chances here.

 

[Callen]

I think PA has the best chance of a Dem win of that group. I think the other 3 are quite unlikely for a Dem.
Meanwhile, keep a close eye on Nevada and AZ for a strong chance at a Dem loss.

Nevada has me worried but not AZ...at this point. WI, OH and NC are worth a watch.

 

[PoliSciPulse]

Fetterman +6/+9 in the two most recent polls. Looking good for him.

Meanwhile, Sen. Lee (R-UT) is back on top.

 

[Jay59]

Still not much polling but I've been watching the betting market on this PA Senate race - expected to potentially be the closest Senate contest in the nation. What was a tie recently is slowly widening.

View attachment 67395778

I agree. I don't think this is close. In a vacuum, Fetterman is a solid candidate with good positions. In reality, he's a candidate with undisclosed medical issues against a well-known name.

I think Laxalt win this week was quite good for the chances here.

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We'll see about this one. I think Pennsylvania and Georgia are going to decide the majority. Democrats need one to stay tied but Republicans are poised to win both. Nevada would be gravy.

 

[gbg3]

I agree. I don't think this is close. In a vacuum, Fetterman is a solid candidate with good positions. In reality, he's a candidate with undisclosed medical issues against a well-known name.


We'll see about this one. I think Pennsylvania and Georgia are going to decide the majority. Democrats need one to stay tied but Republicans are poised to win both. Nevada would be gravy.

In Predictit, Fetterman's lead has increased but the same is true in GA with Walker's lead - so those two races are going opposite directions for now. Nevada is looking strong for a GOP win. AZ is looking fairly strong too. Polling is still sparse or nonexistent so, for now, the betting market is where activity is.

Off topic, but DeSantis is an impressive 13 cents over Biden today in Predictit. Biden is sinking slowly while DeSantis is soaring.

 

[gbg3]

Bill Bennett was on a panel with Bret Baier yesterday and he thinks, as the November election gets closer, the Oz/Fetterman race will tighten up significantly. He thinks increasing focus, by the right, will be put on Fetterman's progressive views - and that those views will struggle in a year when Dems and their policies are so struggling.

 

[Callen]

Bill Bennett was on a panel with Bret Baier yesterday and he thinks, as the November election gets closer, the Oz/Fetterman race will tighten up significantly. He thinks increasing focus, by the right, will be put on Fetterman's progressive views - and that those views will struggle in a year when Dems and their policies are so struggling.

Gee that's a surprise!

 

[Callen]

If Johnson wins the primary, which polls see as tightening, after yesterday I think the chances just got better for the Dems to pick up a Senate seat in Wisconsin. It is in my "potential" column.

ETA To correct polling after seeing a recent poll. I hope he does win as I think it all but assures a Dem win.

 

[US&THEM]

Bill Bennett was on a panel with Bret Baier yesterday and he thinks, as the November election gets closer, the Oz/Fetterman race will tighten up significantly. He thinks increasing focus, by the right, will be put on Fetterman's progressive views - and that those views will struggle in a year when Dems and their policies are so struggling.

Imagine if Oz had any views of his own.

 

[Callen]

Bill Bennett was on a panel with Bret Baier yesterday and he thinks, as the November election gets closer, the Oz/Fetterman race will tighten up significantly. He thinks increasing focus, by the right, will be put on Fetterman's progressive views - and that those views will struggle in a year when Dems and their policies are so struggling.

Fetterman's policies are well known and will be of no surprise to those in PA. He is quite popular with the common guy and speaks straight to them. Oz is the guy from out of town nobody really knows.

 

[US&THEM]

Fetterman's policies are well known and will be of no surprise to those in PA. He is quite popular with the common guy and speaks straight to them. Oz is the guy from out of town nobody really knows.

People know him for his BS show, he was called to testify to the Congress because of his snake oil sales pitches. No wonder Donny T likes him.