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Stock prices decline signaling Economic depression VS uneven & orderly tone = BUY signal?

Are U.S. Stock prices signaling a buy or further decline of the so far unfallen, or econo depression

  • Buy the hugh growth forecast, big decliners, sell nothing, for now.

  • Sell the stocks that have so far held up well, something does not look right!

  • Buy the high growth fallen, sell stocks that have held up well.

  • I fear the unfallen will catch up with the steeply falling stocks. Prices signal at least recession

  • The sheer height prices have reached and these huge, quick, but uneven declines seem "2008ish"


Results are only viewable after voting.
Dont know about any of that, unrelated:

Lets say I had $50K buried in a hole somewhere.

I dont want to keep losing money on it every year through inflation and COL, and am pretty much completely ignorant of stocks.

What would be my best approach to getting some of this money invested so its growing instead of shrinking?
Maybe a mutual fund?
What about these online robo-brokers? Seems that would be as good a way to invest as any. Seems like fees and stuff could eat into you.
How about some kind of a 401K setup?
I know I could get a book about this and read it (and I will), but any quick tips as to one thing in particular I should really be looking at?

In regards to your OP....do you feel some sort of big correction is coming?
Seems like they prop it up no matter what happens. I know its not "money in the bank" as far as being 100% secure, but still seems like the markets always make out eventually regardless of what happens to the economy in general.

Thanks.
How long do you plan to hold it? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? Do you want easy access to it?

There CDs, IRAs, and, land purchases. All 3 are pretty much going to beat inflation...just don't buy swamp land!
 
How long do you plan to hold it? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? Do you want easy access to it?

There CDs, IRAs, and, land purchases. All 3 are pretty much going to beat inflation...just don't buy swamp land!
I want to have access to it with no big penalty (that rules 401K or IRA out I guess?), and probably looking at more like 10 years than I am 30 years.
Land eh? I was thinking of trying to flip some houses or something but I dont know a damn thing about that. Even though I do know how to throw cosmetics on a house.
 
I want to have access to it with no big penalty (that rules 401K or IRA out I guess?), and probably looking at more like 10 years than I am 30 years.
Land eh? I was thinking of trying to flip some houses or something but I dont know a damn thing about that. Even though I do know how to throw cosmetics on a house.
Land is NOT easy access, though. You have to sell the land to get it back.

Talk to your bank about opening a CD (certificate of deposite) account. Sorta like an IRA, but typically shorter term, and less penalty for withdrawing before maturation. They average a little above 3% interest.
 
Dont know about any of that, unrelated:

Lets say I had $50K buried in a hole somewhere.

I dont want to keep losing money on it every year through inflation and COL, and am pretty much completely ignorant of stocks.

What would be my best approach to getting some of this money invested so its growing instead of shrinking?
Maybe a mutual fund?
What about these online robo-brokers? Seems that would be as good a way to invest as any. Seems like fees and stuff could eat into you.
How about some kind of a 401K setup?
I know I could get a book about this and read it (and I will), but any quick tips as to one thing in particular I should really be looking at?

In regards to your OP....do you feel some sort of big correction is coming?
Seems like they prop it up no matter what happens. I know its not "money in the bank" as far as being 100% secure, but still seems like the markets always make out eventually regardless of what happens to the economy in general.

Thanks.
TDameritrade and Schwab were forced a year ago to reduce their $10 fee per buy or sell transaction to zero because Robinhood had gained
a huge number of accounts very quickly by heavily promoting its "no fee" service that depends on selling order flow to market makers who
make and share a tiny margin via "price improvement". Example, the Level II realtime trade activity display shows a bid price of $50 per share and an ask price of $50.11. The client inputs an online trade on Robinhood's website or phone APP, entering a limit order at $50.06 for say... 80 shares. Robinhood routes the order to a market maker offering a .05 percent share kickback. The market maker quickly consolidates the 80 share order into a thousand share order of one of its other clients and executes a buy on an institutional trading platform, buying the 1,000
shares @ $49.85. It doesn't happen that way all of the time, but apparently often enough to remove trading fees from the major competing services like the two I named.

The bad news is HOOD, aka Robinhood, opened it's IPO at a trading price of $38 at the end of last July.
Robinhood closed at $34.89 that first day it traded and was considered a "busted IPO," a rare thing. However, on
August 4, less than a week later, it touched above $70, dropped to $51 within a couple of days, bounced back to $57 on August 9,
declined steadily since, click the link, above, hit a new low 2 days ago @ $12.77, and last after hours trade on Friday was $12.85 !

Now,,,, they are the broker, if that is the price performance of their own corp.'s stock, what do they have to offer you.
Don't, especially as a novice, buy or short sell a stock or an option in this market through an online broker using any money
you cannot afford to lose.

Ideally, you want to choose a fiduciary, like Fisher Investments. You may have seen their Ads on TV. They are restricted to only selling
you investments that are best for you and they only charge fees on your gains, vs non-fiduciaries that only have to sell you what is
reasonably suited for you but a better profit potential for them than what Fisher is limited to selecting for you, and they can charge fees
regardless of your gains or losses.

The bad news is Fisher requires $500,000 minimum opening investment. I inherited an investment advisor upon the death of my father
a few years ago. He is an Edward Jones partner, as are his 13,000 associates. My dad invested no more than $300,000 when this advisor
was new to that business after leaving a career as a military officer. Edward Jones partners own the company. Each manages an office limited to
about 200 clients. They charge a competitive fee for everything and are not fiduciaries but have a good reputation. He told me he accepted my
father as a client more than 20 years ago but currently requires a $2 million minimum of new clients. He considers me a legacy account and unfortunately most of my Dad's equity was spent on his four years in a long term care facility. You can't qualify for medicaid assistance until you are broke! So, my Edward Jones financial advisor will handle any amount I choose to invest in either a retirement IRA, tax deferred, or a regular investment account and the strategy of that firm, investing and hedging against losses like in this current market permits them to offer an expectation of a consistent 5 percent return annually!

So, it's nice to know Edward Jones is there if I need its services but I do have 24 years experience trading stocks but more often,
options. As you can see, I started this poll thread because I do not have a high enough confidence about what to do, tomorrow morning!

Smart people with $2 million, are known to settle for a nearly guaranteed 5 percent annual return, hopefully after Edward Jones deducts its
fees.

Continued....
 
If you make an informed guess in the next two days or so, and you guess right on the timing and purchase of a say, a $60 TQQQ call option,
you can watch your investment nearly double in literally a few trading hours.... that is how all snap back rallies, all initially fueled by short sellers scrambling to limit their losses on a sudden market reversal in the up direction, have played out since the Fed announced that it would protect investors from covid driven declines, and really, how it has gone all the way back to March 9, 2009, when the stock indexes reversed from what turned out to be a generational low... the Dow 30 was below 7,000 and the S&P 500 below 750!

This is triple leveraged on the performance of the Nasdaq 100, in realtime. Someone has been kind enough to lay out the major decline
and reversal prices since 2018. Think of it as informed gambling.... (in image at bottom of this post)



A $60 call option on 100 shares of TQQQ, expiring on January 28... 5 trading days from now, costs about $2.00 X 100 shares.
It gives the buyer the right to buy 100 shares of TQQQ for $60 per share, even if the closing price on the 28th is $68.
If the trading price closes below $60 on the 28th, you lose the $200.


What actually happens, if you buy the $60 call option at the open and by early afternnon, the trading price rises from current $56.25 to
$59, moving at 3X the rate of the actual Nasdaq 100, since there will be more than 4 days until the option expires and the market direction is up, the $60 option will be trading in anticipation of more upside, at $3.50 to $4.00. If you sell it at $4.00, you've doubled your money.

Here is "the roadmap", designed to assist prediction of a reversal, in this case, upwards. As you can see, we are at a relatively infrequent point in this, "tug of war," between fear and greed! Again, the link to data of the underlying, ETF shares... $87 each (all time high) in December

The following data was shared by the compiler late on Friday, in the conversation section available at the link, below.
You say you are a novice, I've tried to pack quite a lot into an introductory presentation!

51837041462_32aa88eb00_k.jpg
 
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Dont know about any of that, unrelated:

Lets say I had $50K buried in a hole somewhere.

I dont want to keep losing money on it every year through inflation and COL, and am pretty much completely ignorant of stocks.

What would be my best approach to getting some of this money invested so its growing instead of shrinking?
Maybe a mutual fund?
What about these online robo-brokers? Seems that would be as good a way to invest as any. Seems like fees and stuff could eat into you.
How about some kind of a 401K setup?
I know I could get a book about this and read it (and I will), but any quick tips as to one thing in particular I should really be looking at?

In regards to your OP....do you feel some sort of big correction is coming?
Seems like they prop it up no matter what happens. I know its not "money in the bank" as far as being 100% secure, but still seems like the markets always make out eventually regardless of what happens to the economy in general.

Thanks.
If you’re young, the best thing to do would be to place your money in broad market etfs regularly, using an ira or sep-ira when possible. Adhering to a discipline like this will reward you in the long run because it helps to block off the emotional response to the markets. Unless you have inside knowledge of an industry, timing the markets doesn’t work.
 
If you make an informed guess in the next two days or so, and you guess right on the timing and purchase of a say, a $60 TQQQ call option,
you can watch your investment nearly double in literally a few trading hours.... that is how all snap back rallies, all initially fueled by short sellers scrambling to limit their losses on a sudden market reversal in the up direction, have played out since the Fed announced tha it would protect investors from covid driven declines, and really, how it has gone all the way back to March 9, 2009, when the stock indexes reversed from what turned out to be a generational low... the Dow 30 was below 7,000 and the S&P 500 below 750!

This is triple leveraged on the performance of the Nasdaq 100, in realtime. Someone has been kind enough to lay out the major decline
and reversal prices since 2018. Think of it as informed gambling.... (in image at bottom of this post)



A $60 call option on 100 shares of TQQQ, expiring on January 28... 5 trading days from now, costs about $2.00 X 100 shares.
It gives the buyer the right to buy 100 shares of TQQQ for $60 per share, even if the closing price on the 28th is $68.
If the trading price closes below $60 on the 28th, you lose the $200.


What actually happens, if you buy the $60 call option at the open and by early afternnon, the trading price rises from current $56.25 to
$59, moving at 3X the rate of the actual Nasdaq 100, since there will be more than 4 days until the option expires and the market direction is up, the $60 option will be trading in anticipation of more upside, at $3.50 to $4.00. If you sell it at $4.00, you've doubled your money.

Here is "the roadmap", designed to assist prediction of a reversal, in this case, upwards. As you can see, we are at a relatively infrequent point in this, "tug of war," between fear and greed! Again, the link to data of the underlying, ETF shares... $90 each (all time high) in December

The following data was shared by the compiler late on Friday, in the conversation section available at the link, below.
You say you are a novice, I've tried to pack quite a lot into an introductory presentation!

51837041462_32aa88eb00_k.jpg
Theres a lot of info and things to consider, I'll have to study up on this stuff. Thanks for the info.
 
If you’re young, the best thing to do would be to place your money in broad market etfs regularly, using an ira or sep-ira when possible. Adhering to a discipline like this will reward you in the long run because it helps to block off the emotional response to the markets. Unless you have inside knowledge of an industry, timing the markets doesn’t work.

I'm not young, so I'm not looking 40 years down the road at this point. Although it is possible I could still be alive then I guess. But I'd be in my 90s. My grandfather lived to 95.

I have read enough about it to know that I'm not looking to get huge gains on something overnight, although its possible you cant really go at it like that.

I guess I've got a lot of thinking to do in order to figure out how to beat the inflation and get some return on my money rather than just watch it become less and less over time. I am getting a VERY late start on this but the good news is all of my bills are paid and I am DEBT FREE right now so there is pretty much a 0 in the liability column.

TY for the input.
 
I'm not young, so I'm not looking 40 years down the road at this point. Although it is possible I could still be alive then I guess. But I'd be in my 90s. My grandfather lived to 95.

I have read enough about it to know that I'm not looking to get huge gains on something overnight, although its possible you cant really go at it like that.

I guess I've got a lot of thinking to do in order to figure out how to beat the inflation and get some return on my money rather than just watch it become less and less over time. I am getting a VERY late start on this but the good news is all of my bills are paid and I am DEBT FREE right now so there is pretty much a 0 in the liability column.

TY for the input.
I’m not super young either, but I’m young enough to weather a couple more 2008’s. By which I mean I’ve got about two more market disasters left in me before I start getting the heebie jeebies about my investments. Right now when I see huge downturns they don’t emotionally impact me because of the time I have left before I need my portfolio to be “safe.”
 
All three of these stocks, NFLX, ROKU, and DIS, depend on online viewer increases, mostly from home during ongoing pandemic.
NFLX and DIS have high content production costs, ROKU depends on viewer growth but has shifted from depending on revenue
from sales of the streaming hardware devices it designs and manufactures for TVs, to a much greater revenue stream growth from
its advertising platform. DIS is a DOW 30 stock with a P/E of 125!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX?p=NFLX&.tsrc=fin-srch P/E 35.36
51837751713_0471c9cc2e_h.jpg


51837745853_40dbdb9c22_b.jpg


https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS&.tsrc=fin-srch
P/E 125.58
51837652061_4948f888fb_h.jpg
I sold about 35% of my portfolio on the 3rd partly because I perceived a local peak, partly because I'd wanted to push capital gains hits to 2022, and partly to free up cash for post-Omicron/COVID investments e.g. select B&M retail, China/India, airlines and travel / tourism. It felt strange liquidating so many positions but I am glad I did. This should be a good, fun year for investment including shorts. Government gridlock means we can focus strictly on macroeconomic trends.
 
I'm not young, so I'm not looking 40 years down the road at this point. Although it is possible I could still be alive then I guess. But I'd be in my 90s. My grandfather lived to 95.

I have read enough about it to know that I'm not looking to get huge gains on something overnight, although its possible you cant really go at it like that.

I guess I've got a lot of thinking to do in order to figure out how to beat the inflation and get some return on my money rather than just watch it become less and less over time. I am getting a VERY late start on this but the good news is all of my bills are paid and I am DEBT FREE right now so there is pretty much a 0 in the liability column.

TY for the input.
If I had $50K to invest, and I've given the first half of the following advice a lot of thought over two years, but the second half only materialized with this current decline,

I would short sell 700 shares of this,

...and buy 200 shares of this.
XXX

BTW, you can short 2X the number of shares I posted, on margin, but, if you want to hold long term, it would
be best not to take those positions on margin because you might be forced to look for $$$ to cover a potential
margin call if the price of one of the two moves temporarily the wrong direction. You can always sell calls against
your AMBA position and puts against your Uber short sold shares, but Uber options aren't priced at anywhere near
the premium of AMBA calls because Uber's share price is not very volatile. As I said, the price is protected by the delusional
institutions invested in it.

Uber is going to zero, it's been protected from a fundamentally driven price decline by heavy institutional ownership.
It sunk to $5.00 in late March, 2020, rescued by the Fed, losing many billions since. LYFT would be an even lower risk
short sell, except that it's market cap is so much smaller than Uber's, it lends itself to being bought out by someone
still delusional enough to think it will ever make a profit vs the cost of buying the corp.

AMBA makes the computer chips for the cameras, and the cameras, that are the eyes of self driving vehicles and collision avoidance,
auto emergency braking, lane change alert mirrors, auto cruise control, etc, It's dropped 45 percent from its post earnings announcement
high of $228.
 
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The equity investments I have are not going to be touched for 20 years, and I have too much to do to think I can actively research and invest and beat the market.

In addition to admitting I probably can't beat the market, and that I hardly have any time to even try, I also have come to the conclusion that I also can't reliably time the market.

And there's also the observation that most professionals can't do it either, and even fewer have demonstrated an ability to do it consistently.

I've accepted that I need to passively invest in broadly diversified stocks and letting it ride for a while, regardless of what it looks like could be happening in the short term. In twelve years my kids will be out of the house and maybe then I'll have more time to put into working a more active strategy. But again, if 19 out of 20 CFAs and CFPs who do this full time as a profession can't reliably do it, why do I think I could? Right now I need to focus on maximizing income and savings and minimizing unnecessary and wasteful expenses.
 
Dont know about any of that, unrelated:

Lets say I had $50K buried in a hole somewhere.

I dont want to keep losing money on it every year through inflation and COL, and am pretty much completely ignorant of stocks.

What would be my best approach to getting some of this money invested so its growing instead of shrinking?
Maybe a mutual fund?
What about these online robo-brokers? Seems that would be as good a way to invest as any. Seems like fees and stuff could eat into you.
How about some kind of a 401K setup?
I know I could get a book about this and read it (and I will), but any quick tips as to one thing in particular I should really be looking at?

In regards to your OP....do you feel some sort of big correction is coming?
Seems like they prop it up no matter what happens. I know its not "money in the bank" as far as being 100% secure, but still seems like the markets always make out eventually regardless of what happens to the economy in general.

Thanks.
If you want to be in stocks, the 95% answer, and simplest answer, is just an index of the S&P 500. Vanguard's is good, but several fund companies sell them, pick the one with the lowest expense ratio. You'll beat the vast majority of funds over time, and the vast majority of stock pickers, stock brokers, and hedge funds. Buffett put out a challenge a while back - Hedge fund versus index, winner gets $1 million. The Vanguard SP 500 Index easily won against the only person willing to make that bet.

Lots of it is math. If the investment incurs fees, the stock picker has to beat the "market" plus the costs. And every year about half the pickers do better, and half do worse than the "market." And with fees, something more than half underperforms the 'market'. So over 10 years, to beat your boring index, someone has to have a bunch of good years, so something better, better info, a better system, better research, consistently, year after year, than all the traders out there with their Bloomberg terminals and a huge staff, huge research budget, all the fancy charts, etc., plus the fees, and no terrible years versus the market. Some can do that, but they are rare. Buffett has done it, and we know about him because he's such a rare example. But if you just buy the Vanguard SP 500 index, and do nothing, you'll beat about 80-90%, at least, of all the pros out there.

And if you sign up for a 401(k) and put a little money away every month, that's even better. People who start that when they're young will very likely have plenty at retirement. When I was an advisor, we had many examples - teachers, small business people, making at best median wages, coming to us at 50 with $2 million in retirement plans, paid off house. On the other side were doctors and lots of lawyers who we had VERY few as clients, and almost all of them had been making in the top 3% or better and were effectively broke at age 50. Debts > assets, $500k in earnings, something like $87 in dividends, $40 in interest income, but with a huge show house and nice cars, which is nice. And they think they're smarter than everyone, and so were crap clients.
 
The equity investments I have are not going to be touched for 20 years, and I have too much to do to think I can actively research and invest and beat the market.

In addition to admitting I probably can't beat the market, and that I hardly have any time to even try, I also have come to the conclusion that I also can't reliably time the market.

And there's also the observation that most professionals can't do it either, and even fewer have demonstrated an ability to do it consistently.

I've accepted that I need to passively invest in broadly diversified stocks and letting it ride for a while, regardless of what it looks like could be happening in the short term. In twelve years my kids will be out of the house and maybe then I'll have more time to put into working a more active strategy. But again, if 19 out of 20 CFAs and CFPs who do this full time as a profession can't reliably do it, why do I think I could? Right now I need to focus on maximizing income and savings and minimizing unnecessary and wasteful expenses.
You can say all of that, again. This fund has gone up 50 percent doing the opposite of what once was the fund attracting the highest inflows
in response to the success of its strategist, Cathie Wood. (ARK Innovation ETF)



51838463449_2d4f0b0ba9_b.jpg



51837141992_1dfbfdcd0d_b.jpg
 
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But again, if 19 out of 20 CFAs and CFPs who do this full time as a profession can't reliably do it, why do I think I could? Right now I need to focus on maximizing income and savings and minimizing unnecessary and wasteful expenses.
I agree 100%. And to put another point on it, if you had 1,000 people throwing darts as strategy, each year throw 20 more darts at the wall, invest in those, some small number would beat the market over 15 years. It's what random chance predicts. So did that 1 of 20 beat the market because he's great at the task, or just lucky, hit a few big winners, and no big losers? Who knows but it's just as likely luck as skill. Then if you're an investor you have to identify that guy/fund/hedge fund in year 1, not year 15, which is highly unlikely.

For any of us, the key is saving money, every year. How our investments do is the least important part of 'retirement planning' so long as you don't screw that up, such as by giving your money to a stockbroker and letting him fund his new yacht in part on your fees from trading the account in between games of golf. Buy an index fund, or maybe 2 or 3 of them, and you've got the investment performance box checked off just fine.
 
And also put us in even more greater national debt when they said it would pay for themselves(They lied)
Most people knew the tax cuts were bullshit. Even the politicians passing the bill.
 
Most people knew the tax cuts were bullshit. Even the politicians passing the bill.

Tax cuts?

What does that have to do with anything other than distract?
 
And also put us in even more greater national debt when they said it would pay for themselves(They lied)
Infrastructure can pay for itself eventually and any public policy that promotes and provides for the general welfare should have a multiplier of two (2) or more.
 
I don't know a lot about stocks or want to know

But I did cash out my mutual fund because I don't trust them or our Gov

I'm not losing half of my retirement
It's generally a very bad idea to try to time the market like that with a retirement investment. This is particularly the case if you have more than a year or two before you retire.
 
Infrastructure can pay for itself eventually and any public policy that promotes and provides for the general welfare should have a multiplier of two (2) or more.

You kill me bud

How Congress will pay for it​

The legislation includes a multitude of measures to pay for the proposal -- none of which would raise taxes.
But while lawmakers claim the package pays for itself, the CBO score found it would instead add billions of dollars to the deficit over 10 years and that many of the pay-for provisions would not raise as much money as Democrats said they would.
The bottom line is that the legislation would directly add roughly $350 billion to the deficit
 
It's generally a very bad idea to try to time the market like that with a retirement investment. This is particularly the case if you have more than a year or two before you retire.

No, the market can go to shit at anytime
 
I haven't and won't sell anything but I'm waiting for a lower opportunity to invest more. I'd like to see it drop a couple thousand more DOW points before I put any more money in. So, I'm still on hold for what I'll see as a potential buying opportunity.
 
You kill me bud
It should be optimized for scale economies anyway. We could start with the Postal Service to get the biggest bang for our buck.

The Postal Service is a secret giant, generating about $71 billion in annual sales, including $23 billion in parcel revenue during 2019. UPS had about $76 billion in sales and $46 billion in U.S. package revenue over that span, while the numbers for FedEx are $69 billion and $48 billion.

 
It should be optimized for scale economies anyway. We could start with the Postal Service to get the biggest bang for our buck.
Sounds like communism to me
 
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