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Your Final Predictions?

I predict every state except Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
 
I'm predicting a that Harris and the Democrats win by a margin that is larger than the possibility the polls predict, by a margin greater than the margin of error those polls list.

My reason for this is because I want it.
 
My map - this election is a referendum against Trumpism and MAGA.
 
Still predicting a Trump win, despite the Selzer gold standard poll.

Unless American women really vote out Trump based on reproductive rights, in which case there will be a tremendous polling error.
 
I'm sure a total fantasy but hey if I'm wrong, I'm wrong!

 
I'm nervous to opine after 2016, but I'm cautiously optimistic that Harris will overperform the polls and win with some relative margin. Trump will simultaneously claim both victory and massive fraud, he's very predictable in that way.
 
BlueTex said:
Why does Nate keep updating his "final prediction"?



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You didn't read the above article where they referred to Nate Silver's "final forecast". If he's updating it now, his prerogative.
Oh look, and he has about an hour ago. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Last update: 10:45 a.m., Sunday, November 3. Just two days to go! A lot of polling out in the morning, but it’s all fairly consistent with our previous forecast. A final set of NYT/Siena swing state polls was good for Kamala Harris but not great — for instance, in showing Pennsylvania as a tie, a race that previous NYT polls had shown as leaning toward Harris. However, she got a mediocre set of state numbers from Morning Consult, considering it’s generally been one of her better pollsters. And our national polling average tightened even further to Harris +0.9, though the model doesn’t care much about national polls at this stage.

So, there was nothing as exciting as the Des Moines Register poll last night that showed Harris leading in Iowa—we have a lot of thoughts about that one. Instead, it’s all in line with a race that’s really and truly close to 50/50. We’ll very likely have another update in the PM."


We also have RCP who continues to update.
 
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Harris by a wider margin than anticipated as all these junk right wing polls are understating her performance. Almost every A+ rated poll shows Harris leading. I think it will be obvious early in the evening when NC goes to Harris that the race is over.

Was not smart doubling down on throwing out abortion rights.
 
Harris wins White House
Repubs win control of Senate
Dems take control of House.

MAGA scream election fraud and refuse to accept defeat.
 
I agree, except WI will go to Harris as well, and Trump will claim victory, when he loses.
 
And I predict that Harris will win the nationwide popular vote somewhere between 0.5% and 2%.
 
With the extremely high volume of early voting, and the 10 point Harris lead over Trump with women voters in four battleground states, I believe will will have a Madam President.

If Donald Trump should by perchance win, we are ****ed as a Constitutionl Republic and a Rule of Law nation.
 
My final thoughts:

Minnesota / New Hampshire / Virginia / Nebraska 2nd district - Harris. All of the polls coming out have Harris leading and hitting the 50% mark.
Maine 2nd district - Trump. This one is a toss-up believe it or not. Trump is the only Republican to win the 2nd district since H.W Bush. I am going to throw Mr. Trump a bone for this one. The limited numbers are well within that 3% margin of error.
Florida / Texas - Trump. Same logic for Minnesota, NH, Virginia and Nebraska 2.
Iowa - Trump. Very limited polls, but Iowa has a Republican Governor and both U.S Senators are Republican.

I am going to start with Harris 226, Trump 219.

Michigan / Pennsylvania - Since 2018, both states have voted Democrat for their state-wide races -- Attorney General, U.S Senator, President, and Governor. In 7 of the last 8 elections, the Democrats have won those states for President. The polls are tight and well within the any common margin of error. In 2022, Dr. Oz was favored to beat Jon Fetterman with a 57% chance from 538. Fetterman won by almost 5%. Both Casey and Slotkin have the slight edge over their opponent.
Harris 260, Trump 219

Wisconsin - Since 1988, Wisconsin has gone Democrat 8 of the last 9 elections. Tammy Baldwin has lead in every recent poll, except for one, where it was a tie. Let me also mention that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have gone to the SAME candidate since 1992.
Harris 270, Trump 219

Nevada - They only have 6 electoral college votes, but they are the most accurate state when it comes to the electoral college winner. 80% accuracy or 32/40. Ford and Clinton are the only modern presidential candidates to win Nevada, but lose the electoral college. Rosen holds at least a 5% lead over Brown in the U.S Senate seat.
Harris 276, Trump 219

That leaves three more states. Arizona has a Democratic Governor, and both their Senators are Democrats. Gallego is leading Lake in every poll, except two. Yes, I understand that Trump is performing best in Arizona than any other "swing state", but I am giving it to Harris. The state has been trending blue since 2020 and Hobbs was able to win her governorship race with 50% of the vote, despite being behind by 2-3% in the polls.

North Carolina and Georgia are red states with a slight purple streak. North Carolina prefers their Senators red and their governors blue. Georgia is vice verse. Biden was able to squeak past Trump in Georgia, and Trump was able to squeak past Biden. We could very well see Harris winning all 7 of the big juicy swing states. Warnock was behind in the polls against Walker in 2022, and still won. Mark Robinson's scandal-filled governor candidacy is bad news for Trump. I am going to say a split between the two sun belt states. The last two elections, we saw the electoral college winner taking 6 of those 7 states.

Final prediction: Harris 303, Trump 235.
 
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