winners and losers in US-EU trade deal

[Infinite Chaos]

Interesting summary by the BBC

The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in Scotland.
It actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still unclear.​

Who are the winners and losers in US-EU trade deal?

Carmakers, consumers and European solidarity - a look at who is up and who is down due to the latest tariffs.

www.bbc.co.uk

Summary
Winners

Trump​

US Car Manufacturers​

Stock Markets​

US Energy providers​

Losers

US Consumer​

EU Car makers (German in particular)​

EU Pharmaceuticals​

Draw (mutual beneficiaries)

Aviation Industry in US and EU​

However and it's a big however, this deal has to actually be signed off by all 27 individual nations and even Viktor Orban seemed critical, if not at least at Von Der Leyen's capitulation.
With regard to energy, I don't mind that Europe is weaning forcibly off the Russian teat but we should at least have looked to talk to Canada for energy first.

I'm interested if you agree the list of winners and losers?

 

[Loulit01]

We must wait until TACO's last TACO before judging.

 

[joluoto]

Interesting summary by the BBC

The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in Scotland.
It actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still unclear.​

Who are the winners and losers in US-EU trade deal?

Carmakers, consumers and European solidarity - a look at who is up and who is down due to the latest tariffs.

www.bbc.co.uk

Summary
Winners

Trump​

US Car Manufacturers​

Stock Markets​

US Energy providers​

Losers

US Consumer​

EU Car makers (German in particular)​

EU Pharmaceuticals​

Draw (mutual beneficiaries)

Aviation Industry in US and EU​

However and it's a big however, this deal has to actually be signed off by all 27 individual nations and even Viktor Orban seemed critical, if not at least at Von Der Leyen's capitulation.
With regard to energy, I don't mind that Europe is weaning forcibly off the Russian teat but we should at least have looked to talk to Canada for energy first.

I'm interested if you agree the list of winners and losers?

Also that energy promise means nada. Energy is bought by companies on the private market. So it will depend on price and transport capacity. The private market can't be forced to buy American energy.

And only Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria still officially buys Russian energy. But there is probably unofficial purchased through third countries and the shadow fleet.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Also that energy promise means nada. Energy is bought by companies on the private market. So it will depend on price and transport capacity. The private market can't be forced to buy American energy.

And only Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria still officially buys Russian energy. But there is probably unofficial purchased through third countries and the shadow fleet.

Time will shake out won't it?
At the moment, Trump can sell it as a win and here, Ursula von der Leyen may find that she's put the organisation into a bind to try and get member countries to follow it.

 

[Rumpelstil]

only Trump is the winner ....

 

[Infinite Chaos]

only Trump is the winner ....

For now. The 27 leaders within the EU have to agree to this plan first and there's already backlash in Germany.

 

[PeteEU]

Summary
Winners

Trump​

Well in his mind sure..

US Car Manufacturers

Nope. In fact it is a very very bad deal for them. Their costs are going up astronomically in the US due to the demented pedos tariffs on steel and aluminum, plus general tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and other countries.. . Those costs dont happen for manufactures in Europe and Japan. So even a 15% tariffs on the cars being exported to the US, is still less than the up to 50% increase in costs that the US car manufactures are expecting.

Stock Markets​

Well.. when aint they in the "winning" circle?

US Energy providers​

Nope. Doubt this very much, since they dont have the capacity to even provide for their own needs. Plus consumer animosity towards anything America can be a huge problem for them. We shall see... it is after all a world market.. also not that many American "energy companies" in Europe... cant even remember seeing one..

Losers

US Consumer​

Big time.

EU Car makers (German in particular)

Well, that is semi doubtful. As stated above. German car makers are usually big whiners over anything new.

EU Pharmaceuticals

Wait and see. Trump's threat of 25% on India, basically takes the only realistic competitor totally out of the picture. Also, if there is something that will make this deal fall through.. it is this. The EU states that pharma is included in the 15% and if Trump goes through with his threats of putting massive tariffs on European pharma.. then the "deal" in total is dead in the water. Plus as stated many times.. no one can replace the "drugs" in short or even medium time frame, so the ones that this will hurt is... US consumers, who will pay higher prices, or just simply die.

Draw (mutual beneficiaries)

Aviation Industry in US and EU​

Meh. Boeing is dying slowly and needs its military contracts. Now getting European airforces off the F35 would be nice..

However and it's a big however, this deal has to actually be signed off by all 27 individual nations and even Viktor Orban seemed critical, if not at least at Von Der Leyen's capitulation.

Victor Orban can suck it. Yes all 27 have to agree, and chances are low that it will happen. However chances are far greater that Trump does TACO or "14 days", and the whole deal falls through. In the meantime, there is some stability which is good. Remember, the devil is in the details, which have not yet been finalized.

With regard to energy, I don't mind that Europe is weaning forcibly off the Russian teat but we should at least have looked to talk to Canada for energy first.

Sigh, this still. What is the difference between being on Russia's teat, or Americas teat? Oh, we pay WAY more for Americas teat.

As for looking at Canada.. sure, problem is they have been on the American teat for so long, that they dont have the facilities to do much else... which is now a problem. They are however expanding capacity so they can export more to other than the 4th Reich to the south.

Finally, one thing no one is talking about.. is that tariffs on Trucks seem to be falling for the first time in 50+ years. Also American poisoned food aint coming to Europe.. a plus.

We shall see when more and more details come out.. official ones. Would I have liked a tough "no ****ing way" deal? Sure, but realistically that would be bad for all. We really only have to drag this out for another 1 to 3 years, and trade deals generally take a long time to finalize. In the meantime it is status quo and we shall see.

 

[PeteEU]

For now. The 27 leaders within the EU have to agree to this plan first and there's already backlash in Germany.

Details need to be worked out first.. we shall see. No doubt that the Putin lovers in the EU will try to veto this. Lets just hope it takes a long time, so either Trump dies/gets removed or it takes so long that his term expires ..

And then there is always TACO..

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Details need to be worked out first.. we shall see. No doubt that the Putin lovers in the EU will try to veto this. Lets just hope it takes a long time, so either Trump dies/gets removed or it takes so long that his term expires ..

This is the thing in the end - Trump can wave his deal around at MAGA as much as he likes but these details take a long time to agree and pass through the EU anyway.

 

[PeteEU]

This is the thing in the end - Trump can wave his deal around at MAGA as much as he likes but these details take a long time to agree and pass through the EU anyway.

Once saw an interview with a veteran trade negotiator, who said that on average suck deals take a decade to negotiate. 5 years would be extremely fast and most likely full of holes.

The EU and World has time... I doubt Trump will survive the year and his successor won't have the power he has. Plus the Germans would hunt down Thiel when Vance becomes President, leaving Vance rudderless.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

The EU and World has time... I doubt Trump will survive the year and his successor won't have the power he has.

We have to survive Trump first. Then.... can you imagine a US led by an even bigger moron like Vance? It would be like Putin dying and Russia putting the alcoholic Medvedev in charge.

 

[Airyaman]

We have an actual "text" of a trade deal!

(Of course it's not really an official deal without Congress or the actual signatures of involved parties, but let's not get too far into those details, m'kay?)

 

[PeteEU]

Lol other than the 10 to 15% tariff that the EU " agreed" too, the rest ain't gonna happen.

The US sell pork and soyabean oil to Europe? Good luck. Denmark could crush the US pork industry alone if it wanted too. Fresh fruit and veg? Ain't gonna be that fresh when it arrives, unless you fly it in. The US label is so toxic in Europe so even with preferential access it ain't gonna be bought...why. out label laws mandate country of origin.

The EU won't buy energy or AI chips.. private companies sure, but chances are most of that was already planned.

And how the hell are European companies going to invest in the US when even entering the US is a problem.. not gonna happen. Also investments have fallen because of the toxicity of the American brand.

Best one is they want us to recognise US car standards, while they recognise ours..aka the rest of the world. That is a death sentence for the American auto industry, and US cars won't sell regardless...cause they are American.

The framework ain't worth the paper it is written on...but yea we kept our tariffs at 10 or 15% depending on what good. Better that want most of the world got.

 

[Airyaman]

Lol other than the 10 to 15% tariff that the EU " agreed" too, the rest ain't gonna happen.

The US sell pork and soyabean oil to Europe? Good luck. Denmark could crush the US pork industry alone if it wanted too. Fresh fruit and veg? Ain't gonna be that fresh when it arrives, unless you fly it in. The US label is so toxic in Europe so even with preferential access it ain't gonna be bought...why. out label laws mandate country of origin.

The EU won't buy energy or AI chips.. private companies sure, but chances are most of that was already planned.

And how the hell are European companies going to invest in the US when even entering the US is a problem.. not gonna happen. Also investments have fallen because of the toxicity of the American brand.

Best one is they want us to recognise US car standards, while they recognise ours..aka the rest of the world. That is a death sentence for the American auto industry, and US cars won't sell regardless...cause they are American.

The framework ain't worth the paper it is written on...but yea we kept our tariffs at 10 or 15% depending on what good. Better that want most of the world got.

That's really what all of these "deals" are, just worthless promises to try to get the tariff rate as low as possible.

 

[PeteEU]

That's really what all of these "deals" are, just worthless promises to try to get the tariff rate as low as possible.

Yep, and payback is gonna be a bitch once Trump is gone.

 

[joluoto]

We have an actual "text" of a trade deal!

(Of course it's not really an official deal without Congress or the actual signatures of involved parties, but let's not get too far into those details, m'kay?)

And fron the EU side it will be official once the Council and Parliament have approved it I think.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

And how the hell are European companies going to invest in the US when even entering the US is a problem..

What Trump is after are more manufacturing plants being built in the USA - so, more BMW / Mercedes / Toyota etc plants hiring American workers.

 

[PeteEU]

What Trump is after are more manufacturing plants being built in the USA - so, more BMW / Mercedes / Toyota etc plants hiring American workers.

Yes, and it aint gonna happen in the amount he wants or thinks. Any economist with a basic degree can see that.

Sure if it was only tariffs on foreign made cars, then maybe. But it aint. He is throwing tariffs on steel and aluminium, plus chips, plus stuff from Canada and Mexico.. all that will make US made cars more expensive as well, and frankly at the rates he is talking... it might even mean that importing cars from Europe will be cheaper than building them in the US! And if they are not, the US car manufactures will raise prices to the same level.. cause free profits!

His idea of tariffs = more jobs in US, is from a 1930s text book that he never read. It has been debunked time and time again. It contributed to the great depression and caused one in the 1800s.

Another good example of why it wont work. Washing Machines. Trump put a huge tariff on washers and dryers in his first term. The idea was to get manufacturing to the US. What happened? Yes there was small bump in manufacturing, but the domestic producers did something else. They raised prices to meet the new tariffed imported washers and dryers. So instead of getting tons of new jobs.. the American consumer just got more expensive washers and dryers.

Take olive oil. The US consumers 400k tons a year. It produces 15000 tons and that has been declining. It has put tariffs on every single country that is a major producer. This has resulted so far in a 10-15% dip in sales to the US from Spain. Other countries have seen similar dips. Now what does that mean? The US using less olive oil? Sure.. or maybe they knew it was coming and they imported a ton beforehand. When inventories are gone, then they have a choice.. buy at a higher price or start planting olive trees.. good luck on the latter as that takes decades.

It is this kind of insanity that the US consumer/voter is never told about and by the time they figure it out with rising prices, it is too late.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

His idea of tariffs = more jobs in US, is from a 1930s text book that he never read. It has been debunked time and time again. It contributed to the great depression and caused one in the 1800s.

Well, this is pretty much what all the economic experts have been trying to say for the last year isn't it?