Why Losing Crimea Will Destroy Putin

[W_Heisenberg]

I found this video to be interesting. The creator of this video makes an interesting point. Russia's obsession with Crimea stems from a desire to more closely associate itself with Western civilization. And Russia's view of itself, its imperial ambitions, and its notion of itself as a great power, would be destroyed if it loses Crimea.

 

[Yakshi]

Interesting video. My knowledge of russian history before the breakup of the ussr is weak, so it was good to get some insight into why exactly russians see Crimea as a russian jewel and why its illegal annexation by russia was so overwhelmingly popular among russians.

All I knew was that it was perhaps the most popular russian vacation spot once upon a time.

 

[reinaert]

Interesting video. My knowledge of russian history before the breakup of the ussr is weak, so it was good to get some insight into why exactly russians see Crimea as a russian jewel and why its illegal annexation by russia was so overwhelmingly popular among russians.

All I knew was that it was perhaps the most popular russian vacation spot once upon a time.

I haven't watched yet. Does it touch on the Golden Horde?

 

[Galactic Spin]

I found this video to be interesting. The creator of this video makes an interesting point. Russia's obsession with Crimea stems from a desire to more closely associate itself with Western civilization. And Russia's view of itself, its imperial ambitions, and its notion of itself as a great power, would be destroyed if it loses Crimea.

Nice. It really puts the exclamation point on why all of Europe has an interest in turning back Putin's war of vanity.

 

[Yakshi]

I haven't watched yet. Does it touch on the Golden Horde?

No. It goes back about 200-250 years.

 

[reinaert]

I found this video to be interesting. The creator of this video makes an interesting point. Russia's obsession with Crimea stems from a desire to more closely associate itself with Western civilization. And Russia's view of itself, its imperial ambitions, and its notion of itself as a great power, would be destroyed if it loses Crimea.

Perfect. Thank you.

 

[Antiwar]

...

I found this video to be interesting. The creator of this video makes an interesting point. Russia's obsession with Crimea stems from a desire to more closely associate itself with Western civilization. And Russia's view of itself, its imperial ambitions, and its notion of itself as a great power, would be destroyed if it loses Crimea.

I've watched several of Vlad Vexler's videos. His presentation is good, but his arguments ... (I'm not sure how to phrase it).

He has a Noam Chomsky critique video. I'm going to guess that you've watched that video at least once.

 

[Juin]

I found this video to be interesting. The creator of this video makes an interesting point. Russia's obsession with Crimea stems from a desire to more closely associate itself with Western civilization. And Russia's view of itself, its imperial ambitions, and its notion of itself as a great power, would be destroyed if it loses Crimea.

I watched about half of the video, the creator comes across as an escapee from a mental asylum.

 

[noonereal]

I found this video to be interesting. The creator of this video makes an interesting point. Russia's obsession with Crimea stems from a desire to more closely associate itself with Western civilization. And Russia's view of itself, its imperial ambitions, and its notion of itself as a great power, would be destroyed if it loses Crimea.

He won't lose it.
Thinking he could is ridiculous.

 

[Juin]

He won't lose it.
Thinking he could is ridiculous.

I wonder when that guy made the video, cause if it is recent then he must not have been folllowing developments of the past week or more. Ukraine is spent at the moment. Ukraine's General in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi admitted as much in an interview. The General listed what he needed to take Donbass and Crimea, but it was actually a roundabout way of saying with what he has he cannot take back Donbass and Crimea. Clearly a massive infusion of arms is needed by Ukraine, but from whom is not clear. France indicated she has maxed out. Germany plays fast and loose, but reality is Germany has not been an arms armoury for decades. Gen Wesley Clark in article is calling for at least a partial mobilization of the economy towards the Ukrainian conflict, but that too is a roundabout way of saying the setup as it is is not matching the Russian buildup.

Ukraine is spent on all fronts. Kherson was won, but cannot be secured, Zelensky is evacuating Kherson, suggesting a pyrrhic victory. Ukraine is no more punching up at Svatove. There was much talk of a push by Ukraine from Zaporizhia down to the Azov Sea, to cut the land bridge to Crimea, that too is history; the forces rushed to Bakhmut. Bakhmut is at present being pressed hard by beefed up Russian forces.

The last glimmer of hope was punches by Ukraine towrds Kreminna. There was even wild cheers that Kreminna had fallen to Ukrainian assault forces. It was with difficulty that Zelensky had to be restrained from rushing to Kreminna to congratulate the troops. Which was a good thing, because Kreminna was still in Russian hands, and so by a timely intervention Zelensky was rescued from being taken into Russian custody.

Then the blitz since October that has plunged Ukraine into darkness. Shouldnt that be the priority?

Given all that it is sheer lunacy for the video creator to be talking of Russia losing Crimea

 

[Hamish Howl]

I wonder when that guy made the video, cause if it is recent then he must not have been folllowing developments of the past week or more. Ukraine is spent at the moment.

Everyone is spent. The mud is still mostly liquid, and the roads are shit.

For the last 10 weeks, advances are measured by both sides in terms of half a kilometer. You gotta wait another 2-3 weeks for anything to move.

 

[Galactic Spin]

Everyone is spent. The mud is still mostly liquid, and the roads are shit.

For the last 10 weeks, advances are measured by both sides in terms of half a kilometer. You gotta wait another 2-3 weeks for anything to move.

Apparently, Russia's strategy on the ground is now is "zombie attacks".

They are sending 10-20 at a time to charge Ukrainian positions, and they get mowed down. Then they send another miniwave. They are literally using their troops as cannon fodder to deplete the Ukrainians' armaments.

Ukrainian Troops Say Russian 'Zombies' Repeatedly Attack Lines Around Bakhmut

Ukrainian soldiers defending the key eastern city of Bakhmut say the battles are constant and "cruel," describing ineffective Russian tactics that are endlessly repeated. They say Russian soldiers advance, Ukrainian artillery destroys them, then more come the next day.

www.rferl.org

 

[Juin]

Everyone is spent. The mud is still mostly liquid, and the roads are shit.

For the last 10 weeks, advances are measured by both sides in terms of half a kilometer. You gotta wait another 2-3 weeks for anything to move.

LOL I am used to waiting. Patience is a must to the pro Russian. Perseverance as well. Tough times for the pro Kyiv folks have been few and far between. Ukraine is still far ahead on points, but it seems the Russians are coming back from the ropes

 

[multivita-man]

I think Russia is on track to lose the Donbas and a shit ton of all else, but I think that they will scratch and claw to hang on to Crimea. If they lose Crimea, Putin is indeed a ****ed pirate.

 

[Antiwar]

LOL I am used to waiting. Patience is a must to the pro Russian. Perseverance as well. Tough times for the pro Kyiv folks have been few and far between. Ukraine is still far ahead on points, but it seems the Russians are coming back from the ropes

Why are you pro-Russian?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

He won't lose it.
Thinking he could is ridiculous.

Why do you think it is impossible for Putin to lose Crimea?

 

[Hamish Howl]

I think Russia is on track to lose the Donbas and a shit ton of all else, but I think that they will scratch and claw to hang on to Crimea. If they lose Crimea, Putin is indeed a ****ed pirate.

They don't have a prayer of hanging on to Crimea. Once Melitople goes, so does the Kerch Bridge.

 

[Juin]

Why are you pro-Russian?

I use 'pro Russian' because my arguments are in defense of Russia. But I have over and over stated that even the devil is entitled a defense, ergo Putin and Russia are entitled a defense. Of course, Putin and Russians are far from demons. So as a starting point, lets assume Putin is the devil himself, and Russians his mini demons, what are the charges against him and them? Do some charges have merit? Are others nonesensical?

I find defending Putin far too easy given that much of the charges against him are straight from comic books.

1 Russians blew up Nord Stream pipelines so as to blame it on Ukrainians. That charge still has legs, though thankfully no more from top western government officials.

2 Russians shell their own positions at a nuclear power plant so as to blame it on Ukrainians. That one too is rich!

3 Nato declares itself a defensive military alliance, so Russians have no grounds for begging to differ

4 Ukrainians are united as a people against the Russian invasion. Really? Oh some are, but if they are then they must be paid Russian agents.

5 Crimea must return to Ukraine. Rich in absurdity. Ukraine is actually vowing to liberate people who dont want to be liberated! If it is ok to liberate people who dont want to be liberated then what is the beef with those who accuse Putin of wanting to liberate neighbours who dont want to be liberated?

 

[W_Heisenberg]

I wonder when that guy made the video, cause if it is recent then he must not have been folllowing developments of the past week or more. Ukraine is spent at the moment. Ukraine's General in Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi admitted as much in an interview. The General listed what he needed to take Donbass and Crimea, but it was actually a roundabout way of saying with what he has he cannot take back Donbass and Crimea. Clearly a massive infusion of arms is needed by Ukraine, but from whom is not clear.

Sounds like just the sort of psyops needed to throw Russia off right before a massive offensive.

Ukraine is spent on all fronts. Kherson was won, but cannot be secured, Zelensky is evacuating Kherson, suggesting a pyrrhic victory.

The Russian shelling is endangering the lives of civilians so it makes since for the civilians to evacuate. The shelling is not impairing Ukraine's military position in Kherson though.

Ukraine is no more punching up at Svatove.

No idea what you're talking about. The latest reports indicate Russia is getting its ass kicked in that area.

There was much talk of a push by Ukraine from Zaporizhia down to the Azov Sea, to cut the land bridge to Crimea, that too is history; the forces rushed to Bakhmut.

They simply have to wait until the ground freezes.

Bakhmut is at present being pressed hard by beefed up Russian forces.

Same story, different day, months on end.

The last glimmer of hope was punches by Ukraine towrds Kreminna. There was even wild cheers that Kreminna had fallen to Ukrainian assault forces. It was with difficulty that Zelensky had to be restrained from rushing to Kreminna to congratulate the troops. Which was a good thing, because Kreminna was still in Russian hands, and so by a timely intervention Zelensky was rescued from being taken into Russian custody.

Who was cheering that Kreminna had already fallen? It appears you are pushing a strawman argument.

Also, Ukraine is actually making slow and steady progress towards Kreminna. And that's what counts.

Then the blitz since October that has plunged Ukraine into darkness.

The Ukrainian military can operate despite the missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Shouldnt that be the priority?

No, not during a war.

Given all that it is sheer lunacy for the video creator to be talking of Russia losing Crimea.

As you indicated earlier in your post:

There was much talk of a push by Ukraine from Zaporizhia down to the Azov Sea, to cut the land bridge to Crimea

Crimea is a vulnerable piece of geography. There are two main routes into Crimea from Russia. One is the Crimean bridge, and the other is the land bridge the Russians created with their invasion this year. The Crimean bridge railway is still being repaired. The Russians don't have the right equipment to move massive amounts of equipment and ammunition of the roadway. They need the railway. The Russians use the land bridge to move supplies via rail to their troops.

If the Ukrainians can manage to take and secure Melitopol, it's game over.

Ukraine wouldn't even have to invade Crimea.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

I've watched several of Vlad Vexler's videos. His presentation is good, but his arguments ... (I'm not sure how to phrase it).

You can disagree with his premises or his underlying assumptions, but you can't fault his logic. His logic is razor-sharp.\

I reckon you hate him because he supports the West helping Ukraine defend itself.

He has a Noam Chomsky critique video. I'm going to guess that you've watched that video at least once.

Yep.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Russians shell their own positions at a nuclear power plant so as to blame it on Ukrainians. That one too is rich!

 

[Galactic Spin]

Ukraine wouldn't even have to invade Crimea.

Think so? Man, how would that even work? Russians surrendering?

 

[justoneman]

Why do you think it is impossible for Putin to lose Crimea?

Because it is Russia. It is Russia's warm water Naval base. It is utter foolishness to think Russia could lose Crimea. All the Ukrainian forces that you all thought was going to invade toward Crimea, has all gone to Bakhmut. They are there and yet are being pushed back.

 

[Antiwar]

You can disagree with his premises or his underlying assumptions, but you can't fault his logic. His logic is razor-sharp.\

I reckon you hate him because he supports the West helping Ukraine defend itself.

It's easy to fault his commentary because, rephrasing what you said, he's pro-war. Being pro-war in the current era is about as unwise as can be.

"Hate." Chuckle. You love drama.

As for his logic: I recall his Noam Chomsky video being illogical, but I'd have to try watching it again.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Think so? Man, how would that even work? Russians surrendering?

If the railway on the Crimean bridge remains inoperable, and if the Ukrainians can successfully cut off the land bridge then the Russian position in Crimea would become impossible to maintain.

The Russians would be forced to retreat, or, more likely, they would try to negotiate an end to the war in a way that would be more on Ukraine's terms