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This is an agree to disagree topic.
Even if we learned a total Japanese carrier, battle fleet, submarine fleet and invasion force was coming with a few days notice, there would be almost nothing we could do about it. The Japanese fleet was larger and superior to ours in the Pacific. Since their ships were faster at the start of the war, if it wasn't working out they could have just turned around since invasion forces are on slower ships and always come in last.
Basically their carriers would have come in first - with the battle fleet held back - more subs already on station. After their carriers did their damage, the battle fleet would join to soften up the resistance for landing, plus the battle fleet could offer fire against our aircraft if our carriers were not there and our planes showed up from our carriers. It also is hard to believe the Japanese could not have even 1 person watching Pearl Harbor as a spy.
But that is what-if hindsight, of course.
Strange.I am fascinated by WW2 as it was a moment in history never before and never to be repeated. Humans discovered how to make mass killing machines on a massive scale via assembly line techniques and the world went nuts over it.
Strange.
There are many fascinating aspects to it - personalities, mechanical and tactical.
Also, personally I believe much of TRUE history is in forgotten footnotes and the story told isn't always the real story.
For example, in my opinion the holocaust cost Germany the war. Most of Germany's scientists were Jewish and many fled successfully. Most notable was Einstein - the man who talked FDR to pursue the atom bomb. While Einstein fled, his sister did not and was sent to and died in a Jewish concentration camp. If Germany's Jewish scientists had remained, Germany would likely have obtained the atom bomb - and if so would have conquered the world.
I've never read that theory anywhere ... but in addition to that fact was the fact that Germany was pursuing the atom bomb, but upon the warning a special forces team was sent to successfully destroy Germany's heavy water production. Germany did attempt an A-bomb denotation, but lacked enough bomb material and was unable to make enough more. Without the holocaust, Germany would have had the scientists and we would have never gotten the warning.
Atom bombs could have been flown to the UK and Russia, and delivered to the USA by submarines with most our great cities on the coast lines - plus turned over atom bombs and/or technology to the Japanese. Germany did try last second to get the technology for atom bombs to Japan, but way too late, too little a try and it failed.
There are other never told footnotes, but decisive ones. I think the prospect that the Holocaust against the Jews probably prevented Germany and Japan from conquering the world is a story that should be explored as it is the true law-of-unintended-consequences what-goes-around-comes-around story that may well be the true story - and most forgotten of all footnotes. Few people know Einstein's sister was murdered in a concentration camp and the importance of Einstein in convincing FDR to pursue the atom bomb - plus the warning Germany was doing so.
Here are other tidbits rarely mentioned...
War documentaries leave people believing the German military was so successful because of massive numbers of tanks. That is untrue. In fact, over 90% of the German military had no mechanized transportation at all. The few trucks they had mostly were from countries they conquered. The German military could only be moved by train - when possible - or otherwise walked. Generally, the German military numerically was out numbered, out gunned and inferior in tanks and mechanization.
When Eisenhower asked what was the most value weapon the USA had in WW2? "The 6 ton truck" (all wheel drive). More than any other reason, Germany and Japan lost for supply and logistic reasons.
It is rather impressive just how much you always get wrong on the vast majority of your posts in the military section. It’s almost like you are trying to be wrong.Still more...
To this day, our military teaches German unit battle tactics. To some degree, we adjusted to it.
The USA military was very strictly top-down management. You didn't nothing without orders - and those had to flow from the top. However, in the German military squads and platoons has a great deal of autonomy. Each squad was it's own unit and could make it's own decisions. This allows for instance adjustment, instant reaction and instant tactics - until Hitler totally took over.
Oh, did you know the reason German troops has such tremendous endurance? The entire German Army was on meth. They were all meth heads. Given meth every day. Hitler was a meth head. German soldiers could go for days without sleep because of this. Meth makes many men think they are superman and extremely aggressive - but not necessary stupid. Every day, each German solder got 1 meth pill. In a fierce battle or fast march that might be increased to 2 or 3 to keep them going.
When trapped in Stalingrad and finally surrendering (most killed as POWs afterwards), they not only were running out of ammo and food - but also ran out of meth. Imagine troops on meth every day for a couple years - and suddenly its gone. Time to surrender.
Goodbye
Rather than quitting try learning.
There are many reasons the invasion thing is a failure out of the gate.
The Japanese were at the end of a precarious supply line when they did Pearl Harbor. They had enough fuel to get there and back.
They also went with 2 fast battleships, 2 heavy cruisers, 1 light cruiser because in strikes like this speed is life. So you would have them out with troop transports and other auxiliaries crawling across the Pacific in what was to be a quick paralyzing strike.
Add to that Midway hadn't been taken yet. Nor Wake. And their Army was invested in Philippines, China and Guam among others.
In fact Wake showed the prowess in the Japanese amphibious landing with the first attempt repelled. Their second attack only succeeded because 2 carriers, 2 heavy cruisers were assigned along with 1,500 more Japanese marines in addition to the 450 Special Naval Landing Force troops from the first attempt... All to crush ~500 Marines and four F4Fs.
My goodbye was to someone else, not you.
I understand you points, just do not agree.
The attack on Hawaii itself could be questioned - whether it should have been done tactically at all. Yamato's plan was half assed and would only bite Japan in the ass in the long run. Even if they got our carriers was a foolish plan. It would be a short term win for a certain long term lose. It was only a matter of time.
It was known that Japan had no means to significantly attack the USA and that the USA ultimately could massively out produce Japan on ships, planes, oil and everything else. If Japan did not drive the USA back to the West Coast, in the long run Japan would lose. If I remember correctly, Yamato himself recognized the (then) massive industrial capabilities of the USA that Japan could not meet. We had unlimited coal, unlimited iron ore, and unlimited oil on our mainland, all of which Japan did not, and at that time the USA was an industrial giant entirely out of the reach of Japan.
I do believe the goal was to so harm the USA in the Pacific - and with Germany's promise to join in war against the USA - that Japan would be in a better negotiating position. In short, I believe the core premise and purpose of the attack was to force us to negotiate a peace deal was inaccurate - making the entire purpose inaccurate and counter productive. Japan hoped we would react the way Russia reacted to Japan's war with Russia - a peace deal conceding territory. Japan and Russia did not go to total war. I think Japan wanted the same outcome from their attack on Pearl.
I do not believe any purely defensive war can ever been won and the attack as done ultimately was defensive, not to defeat the USA. Yet if Japan could not defeat the USA (as an ally in the Axis) then Japan could not win in the long run. It would lose the supply and logistical competition - which is what ultimately largely did decide WW2 in the Pacific, Atlantic, European, North African and European theater. The Allies massively outproduced the Axis and came to then also have vastly superior supply logistics.
Eisenhower was not a great military tactician. He was a great logistician. His claim that the 6 ton 6x6 truck was our most valuable military asset on the ground is astute. The German military had to walk and had a difficult time moving supplies. We didn't because our military had over 500,000! 6x6 6 ton trucks - plus jeeps and smaller military transport vehicles. Without eliminating Hawaii as a home base, Japan could not win in the long run for logistical reasons - and that should have been obvious. Japan miscalculated that attacking US soil would lead to a total war for which only unconditional surrender would be accepted. Japan hoped to negotiate a favorable peace by weakening us in a purely and limited crippling military attack. They did not understand we would consider Hawaii part of the USA because Hawaii was not a state, just an "annexed" Republic of Hawaii.
If you are correct that invasion was impossible and it was inherently a very risky and precarious attack, the Hawaiian attack should never have happened even if it were to go exactly as hoped because the USA would not have conceded no matter how many ships lost. The political value was pointless as the Japanese people were already in full support of the war(s) Japan was in already. If Japan lacked the ability to invade Hawaii unable to take the risks, it had no business going to direct war with the USA in the first place. If Japan could not invade and occupy the Republic of Hawaii, it should not have attacked our military base(s) in the first place.
Do you think Yamato's attack plan against Hawaii was a wise plan?
It was the ONLY plan that made sense. A paralyzing strike against the Pacific fleet. It failed in part because Japanese diplomats were tardy in their declaration of war. Also in part because the carriers were not where they should have been. An issue Yamamoto COULD NOT have forseen.
As I said, let's agree to disagree. Yamamoto could have foreseen our carriers might not be there, that one of our subs or planes or ships might have spotted them along the way, and any other of the problems. As I stated, a plan like his should have had at least ONE spy on Hawaii who could send a universal coded short wave message before considering such a plan. For all he knew otherwise, his fleet could have run into the USA on major maneuvers with half a dozen battleships, destroyers, cruisers and aircraft carriers - for which we spotted his fleet first - as bad a lose as Midway with Yamato not having near the fire power.
Even if Japan's diplomats had delivered the declaration of war a few hours ahead of time, I do not believe FDR or Americans would have conceded the Pacific to Japan. If Japan did not have the resources to take out Hawaii, it should have waited until it did.
A strong argument can be made that both Japan and Germany tended to be a year or two too early when they went to formal war. Too little, too early. Poor strategy.
@joko104, do you even know what a MEFO Bill is and how they factored into the German war planning timing?
What happens when Germany waits a year or two: The British, French, and Polish rearmament and economic mobilization programs are done. Now Germany has almost no chance at winning.
What happens when Japan waits a year or two: the embargo on oil and rare materials causes the Japanese industrial base and war machine to cease functioning by late 1942, early 43 at the latest.
You need to start thinking in terms of logistics and economics.
Naw, that just becomes debating the entire war in both theaters. Too many issues to predict either way.
Both Hirohito and Hitler underestimated how much the USA and UK were committed to never surrendering nor ever making a peace deal.
Hirohito though by hurting the USA in a devastating surprise attack would have the same result as having done so to Russia - the USA conceded Pacific territory. He was wrong.
Hitler figured the UK would agree to allowing Hitler to claim more territory by promising not to take British territory - that Germany could take territory for a German Empire like the UK had. This is why he did not obliterate the Allies stranded an Dunkirk. By not doing so, he figured he could make a peace deal with Britain. He was wrong. But for Churchill, he might have succeeded. But the UK had to be taken out before invasion of Russia.
Germany was terribly under mechanized. Less than 10% of German divisions has mechanized transport. Even many of Germany's early tanks actually were captured tanks just like many of Germany's few transport vehicles.
The USA public was intensely anti-war. There was no rush to attack the USA. Japan had found iron ore, coal, and oil in already conquered territory.
Of course, all this is just debating how each side should have fought, and since wars don't go as figures who really knows? What is known is that Japan and Germany got crushed, so obviously they did something wrong.
No. Tell us about it.
As I said, let's agree to disagree. Yamamoto could have foreseen our carriers might not be there, that one of our subs or planes or ships might have spotted them along the way, and any other of the problems. As I stated, a plan like his should have had at least ONE spy on Hawaii who could send a universal coded short wave message before considering such a plan. For all he knew otherwise, his fleet could have run into the USA on major maneuvers with half a dozen battleships, destroyers, cruisers and aircraft carriers - for which we spotted his fleet first - as bad a lose as Midway with Yamato not having near the fire power.
Even if Japan's diplomats had delivered the declaration of war a few hours ahead of time, I do not believe FDR or Americans would have conceded the Pacific to Japan. If Japan did not have the resources to take out Hawaii, it should have waited until it did.
A strong argument can be made that both Japan and Germany tended to be a year or two too early when they went to formal war. Too little, too early. Poor strategy.
Oh, FFS...
The plan was to deal a crippling blow to the Pacific fleet.
Plan succeeded.
It was not even close to being a crippling blow.
The US Navy had over 100 ships at Pearl Harbor.
Of the eight U.S. Navy battleships present, all were damaged, with four sunk. All but USS Arizona were later raised, and six were returned to service and went on to fight in the war. The Japanese also sank or damaged three cruisers, three destroyers, an anti-aircraft training ship,[nb 5] and one minelayer. A total of 188 U.S. aircraft were destroyed; 2,403 Americans were killed and 1,178 others were wounded.[19] Important base installations such as the power station, dry dock, shipyard, maintenance, and fuel and torpedo storage facilities, as well as the submarine piers and headquarters building (also home of the intelligence section) were not attacked.
While the attack accomplished its intended objective, it turned out to be largely unnecessary. Unbeknownst to Yamamoto, who conceived the original plan, the U.S. Navy had decided as far back as 1935 to abandon 'charging' across the Pacific towards the Philippines in response to an outbreak of war (in keeping with the evolution of Plan Orange).[31] The U.S. instead adopted "Plan Dog" in 1940, which emphasized keeping the IJN out of the eastern Pacific and away from the shipping lanes to Australia, while the U.S. concentrated on defeating Nazi Germany.
.
Total lose of USA?
1 battleship
Plus sunk or damaged:
3 cruisers
3 destroyers
1 training ship
1 mine layer
188 aircraft of all kinds
Personnel lost was minor compared to most island battles of the Pacific.
In the scope of the war, that's next to nothing. All it did was get Japan unnecessarily into a direct war with the USA - for which we immediately took a highly aggressive and offensive posture - rather than doing basically nothing other than protecting Australian instead to focus on Germany.
The target was the battleships which were still considered the apex predator...
Of eight battleships :
Arizona - Sunk, forever
Oklahoma - Sunk, forever
West Virginia - Sunk - Raised and returned to service 1944
California - Sunk - Raised and returned to service 1944
Nevada - Intentionally beached - Back in service end of 1942
Maryland - Damaged - returned early 1942
Tennessee - Damaged - returned early 1942
8 for 8 out of action. That is 100%
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