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Who Wins New Hampshire

J

Jay59

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Much as I hate to agree with him, Karl Rove has a point. In 2016 Bernie Sanders won NH by 22 points. Rove says, "That won't happen again. This vote is fragmented." He went on to explain that for the first time ever, we have five candidates getting delegates in Iowa--the main four and Klobuchar. NH is similarly splintered.

Bernie is on home turf. He is expected to win and leads the polling average by over four points. The race for second and third is interesting. Biden is already conceding he won't win, probably meaning he expects another fourth place finish. Warren is also from next door, though NH has more in common with Vermont than Massachusetts. However, she is third. Mayor Pete tied Sanders in Iowa and seems to resonate with the state. The surprise in Iowa, and a much whispered name, is Amy Klobuchar. A number of pundits consider her a viable darkhorse, because she is a natural second choice for Biden's supporters and a female alternative to Warren.

I would have made a poll, but there are too many possibilities to map out in five minutes.

Who wins if not Bernie?
Who is second?
Which of the big four finishes fourth, or fifth?
Who or what is the surprise?
 
If Bernie doesn't win NH, his campaign is over.
 
IMHO, the important thing is whether the far left (Sanders and Warren) get more or less combined votes than the more modertate field get. Finishing first even with 40% of the vote means that 60% wanted someone (something?) else.
 
I'm calling it. Based on several seconds of vigorous research, I'm calling the results, in descending order (In terms of delgates awarded) Is Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Amy.
 

I'm with Metric Mouse.

1. There's no way the DNC is going to cook the primary so Sanders loses. If they do, they screw themselves.

2. But the DNC won't let Warren beat Butty.

3. Biden will probably drop out of the race...eagerly.

4. Maybe Amy will, too.
 
I read a piece by a pollster at the Spectator today and he is convinced neither Buttigieg or Biden will be the nominee. He said everyone is already writing the obits for Biden but soon they will be writing them for Buttigieg too.
 

It's Bernie's surge vs Buttigieg's huge longtime investment in NH and stolen momentum from his premature victory declaration RE: Iowa (and the media by and large complicitly going along with it).
 
NH is Sander’s to lose... FFS, let’s hope he loses.
 
I think Bloomberg benefits the most from not having a clear frontrunner before super Tuesday

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
Who wins NH?

DJT.
 
jamesbyoung said:
Bern, easily. In a national election, Trump would not get 43% of NH against Bern.
Click to expand...

Sanders is a sure thing in NH
Odds from Betonline.ag

U.S. Politics
Odds to Win the New Hampshire Primary

23551 Bernie Sanders -400 -------- Bet $400 on Sanders to win $100
23554 Pete Buttigieg +300 ------- Bet $100 on Buttigieg to win $300
23552 Joseph Biden +1400 ----- Bet $100 on Biden to win $1400
23553 Liz Warren +2000------ Bet $100 on Warren to win $2000
23556 Andrew Yang +3300
23555 Amy Klobuchar +5000


U.S. Politics
Democratic Nominee for the 2020 Election

2251 Bernie Sanders +175
2267 Michael Bloomberg +400
2253 Joe Biden +450
2275 Pete Buttigieg +600
2274 Andrew Yang +1200
2254 Elizabeth Warren +1200
 

I would say it is between Pete and Bernie.
they are pretty much tied at this point, but
Sanders needs a solid win here.
 
Metric Mouse said:
I'm calling it. Based on several seconds of vigorous research, I'm calling the results, in descending order (In terms of delgates awarded) Is Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Amy.
Click to expand...

My guess is:
1) Bernie
2) Klobucher
3) Buttigieg
4) Biden
5) Warren
 

Trump wins by a blow out
 
ludin said:
I would say it is between Pete and Bernie.
they are pretty much tied at this point, but
Sanders needs a solid win here.
Click to expand...
I think that's a given. He's polling 4-6 points ahead. The problem is that it's expected and he won by 22% against Hillary.

In the broader sense, the real question has to do with lower finishes.

Robertinfremont said:
Trump wins by a blow out
Click to expand...
The Republicans unexpectedly had a record turnout in Iowa. Another is expected tomorrow. There is a massive enthusiasm gap between the parties.
 
New Hampshire, the next state on Bernie winning the presidency and saving the country from the clueless minority of voters in both parties.
 

Indeed, the GOP is trailing in the enthusiasm factor.
 
jamesbyoung said:
Indeed, the GOP is trailing in the enthusiasm factor.
Click to expand...
In your dreams, but not in reality. Did you not see the record Republican turnout in Iowa, even with an uncontested Presidential nomination? Republican enthusiasm is far higher.

Trump haters have this delusion that Trump's support has not grown, when it is their own support that is static and weak.
 
1) Buttigieg, it seems it'll be either him or Sanders (likely Sanders)

2) Buttigieg, as above I think Sanders will win NH and don't see anyone jumping over Buttigieg tomorrow

3) I'll go with Biden, seems he is still sinking and could see him in 4th again, possibly 5th depending on Klobuchar

4) I guess Warren? I thought she could end up 2nd, or at worst, 3rd but might end up in the 4th/5th battle with Biden.

I'll go with: Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, Biden.
 

This is something that has the DNC worried they were expecting a ton of trump hate and were expecting bigger than usual turn out for the primary.
they are getting hillary clinton level or worse.
 
ludin said:
This is something that has the DNC worried they were expecting a ton of trump hate and were expecting bigger than usual turn out for the primary.
they are getting hillary clinton level or worse.
Click to expand...
It's past worry. They stirred up a big vote in 2018 on the promise of impeaching Trump. Now, that promise has come due and the payoff is insufficient. The DNC is dealing with a seriously irritated base. Add that to the lackluster group of candidates, Trump's momentum and the expectation of Durham producing indictments against Obama people. It makes for a dejected bunch of potential voters. People still hate Trump, but they are getting resigned to losing the point.
 
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trouble13 said:
I think Bloomberg benefits the most from not having a clear frontrunner before super Tuesday

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I agree. I've already cast my vote for Bloomberg in the CA Primary (March 3rd); our ballot came in the mail on the 7th.
 
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