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Who will win the 2026 House Midterms?

Who will win the 2026 House Mid-Terms

  • GOP

    Votes: 12 24.0%

  • DEM

    Votes: 23 46.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 8.0%

  • Unsure

    Votes: 11 22.0%
  • Total voters
    50
  • This poll will close: .
Josie said:
This assassination will resonate for a long time, IMO.
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Resonance with those who are already entrenched is vacuous and arguably inconsequential.

Its preaching to the same 40% core that has been an unwavering constant for a decade.
 
Again with the Cook Political Report link from comment 127. For the sake of conversation, let's say that all the solid, likely, and leans stay as they are now. I know that's unlikely, but it is reflective of the situation as it stands right now.

From the 18 toss ups, the Dems would need to win 16 of those 18 to take House control. The GOP would only need to win 3 of those 18 to keep House control.
 
Democrats will regain both the House and Senate as long as the cheating that Republicans are already starting with Gerrymandering, doesn't succeed. of course you can't Gerrymander the Senate. As long as we still have a democracy a year from November, Republicans will be toast.
 
gbg3 said:
Thanks for that Cook Political Report link. Looking at the graph near the top of that link, how does that make you feel about the chances of a House win for Dems?
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Based on their's and Sabato's Crystal Ball current projections looks tougher than some others believe. Toss ups are hard to predict this far out. Have recent history on Midterm elections to consider. Will come down to turnout.

Only suggesting your poll is less relevant than Generic Polling and looking at individual races.
 
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iamwhatiseem said:
No one milked anything. But I would not expect a single Democrat to understand this. At all.
Whether anyone likes it or not, on the conservative side - Trump is at the top of the heap. PERIOD.
Not that far under him in influence and favor among conservatives was Charlie Kirk. VERY well liked and respected. VERY.
The best of all the influencers. No one else comes close.
And a leftist nut job who got radicalized into hating Kirk murdered him. But that is not the worst of it. Then as conservatives - AND RIGHT HERE ON THIS FORUM - we saw hoards of people on the left - celebrating - Charlie's death. This is just as bad as the murder itself. The harm done to Democrats because the murderer is a leftist nut is bad. But so many on the left celebrated it??????

And then we saw the left media refuse to acknowledge that the killer is a radical left nut??? Tried to even say he was a Trump supporter???

You are greatly underestimating this. What you see now happening since Charlie was killed... it has just begun.
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Democrats didn't kill Kirk.

This means nothing.
 
Hip octogenarian said:
Democrats will regain both the House and Senate as long as the cheating that Republicans are already starting with Gerrymandering, doesn't succeed. of course you can't Gerrymander the Senate. As long as we still have a democracy a year from November, Republicans will be toast.
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Newsom should have left it as is with Texas. Now more states are involved. With OH, IN, MI, and FL joining TX, the Democrats are worse off than just TX.

www.nytimes.com

If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?

Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The Dem controlled states like IL and MD are already gerrymandered so badly that there are no significant gains to be had.
 
JMB1911A1 said:
Newsom should have left it as is with Texas. Now more states are involved. With OH, IN, MI, and FL joining TX, the Democrats are worse off than just TX.

www.nytimes.com

If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?

Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The Dem controlled states like IL and MD are already gerrymandered so badly that there are no significant gains to be had.
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Disagree, was important for Dems to show some fight. Even if we lose Gerrymandering war there's a chance based on how unpopular mid decade redistricting is might result in better messaging for Democrats for Midterms.

Posted in convo on California polling on Prop 50, only 1/3 of Texans approve and Missouri voters are against.

 
gbg3 said:
Many on the left are talking about Trump's polling supposedly dropping (it's actually been quite steady for 6 months now) and "net negatives" on his individual issue polling. Well, the WaPo/Ipsos poll for September (not at all a good Sept. poll for Trump based on question after question) had these three issue questions with results which generated one of Enten's animated segments. These are big differences between which party those polled feel would do better with three important issues, including the nearly always most important issue - the economy. Maybe Dems will win back the House, but I wouldn't be feeling too optimistic if I were a Dem.


View attachment 67590709
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History points to toward the Dems here. However, the Dems have struggled mightily in messaging, so it is not a gimme, especially if the GOP continues to gerrymander their congressional maps.
 
gbg3 said:
Many on the left are talking about Trump's polling supposedly dropping (it's actually been quite steady for 6 months now) and "net negatives" on his individual issue polling. Well, the WaPo/Ipsos poll for September (not at all a good Sept. poll for Trump based on question after question) had these three issue questions with results which generated one of Enten's animated segments. These are big differences between which party those polled feel would do better with three important issues, including the nearly always most important issue - the economy. Maybe Dems will win back the House, but I wouldn't be feeling too optimistic if I were a Dem.


View attachment 67590709
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While it's true that in general, polls show Republicans are favored in terms of who they trust with those issues ( which is nothing new) voters are very unhappy with how it is actually being handled. We'll see which means most in the midterms, philosophy or reality.
 
BrotherFease said:
History points to toward the Dems here.
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Yes, history most certainly points to the non-incumbent party taking the House in a midterm. We'll see if that holds true next November.
 
iamwhatiseem said:
No one milked anything. But I would not expect a single Democrat to understand this. At all.
Whether anyone likes it or not, on the conservative side - Trump is at the top of the heap. PERIOD.
Not that far under him in influence and favor among conservatives was Charlie Kirk. VERY well liked and respected. VERY.
The best of all the influencers. No one else comes close.
And a leftist nut job who got radicalized into hating Kirk murdered him. But that is not the worst of it. Then as conservatives - AND RIGHT HERE ON THIS FORUM - we saw hoards of people on the left - celebrating - Charlie's death. This is just as bad as the murder itself. The harm done to Democrats because the murderer is a leftist nut is bad. But so many on the left celebrated it??????

And then we saw the left media refuse to acknowledge that the killer is a radical left nut??? Tried to even say he was a Trump supporter???

You are greatly underestimating this. What you see now happening since Charlie was killed... it has just begun.
Click to expand...
Really? As soon as his memorial was done it seems like everyone has already moved on. All I see is Jimmy Kimmel news, a little bit on the potential government shutdown, the UN General Assembly, autism and Tylenol, and ICE stuff. Not much on Kirk anymore.
 
In comment 123, I posted "Important issue" info from a recent WaPo poll, which Enten also did a segment on (linked in comment 126).

Now we have a brand new Reuters poll (another one not at all favorable to Trump) with very similar results about the two parties regarding top issues (the economy, immigration and crime). No wonder the left has quieted down altogether about what a supposedly bad job Trump is doing with crime and with deportations! But this poll shows political extremism has moved to a number one issue, with the two parties close on that issue.

"Reuters/Ipsos polls this year have persistently shown that Americans view political extremism as the country's biggest problem. Some 28% of respondents in the most recent poll picked it as the top issue, compared to 16% who picked the economy. Asked which party had a better plan for tackling extremism, poll respondents were split almost evenly, with 30% picking Republicans, 26% saying Democrats were better and the rest saying either neither was better or they weren't sure."

1758731159320.webp
 
Bok Tuklo said:
We are a siloed country with citizens who have found their own affinity groups. Too many people have no idea who he was until his assassination. I am a political junkie (though not as much as I used to be) and barely knew of him having only seen and heard his racism, misogyny, and bigotry toward others in small doses. I know he was a professional troll and had a large following, but it was niche. A large niche but he was not on everyone's radar in the same way that other broad-based celebrities are. Any attempts to milk his assassination for political advantage after his memorial this weekend will only being preaching to the choir, so to speak.

So, if you mean it isn't going away soon in your silo and/or the silo in which he was popular, no doubt. But that is not the same as it being an issue for anyone outside of that niche.
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Gun violence victims like Charlie Kirk disappear from the news cycle pretty quickly.
 
gbg3 said:
Now we have a brand new Reuters poll (another one not at all favorable to Trump) with very similar results about the two parties regarding top issues (the economy, immigration and crime). No wonder the left has quieted down altogether about what a supposedly bad job Trump is doing with crime and with deportations! But this poll shows political extremism has moved to a number one issue, with the two parties close on that issue.
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I'm sorry but have you posted the wrong chart? This chart is about who has a better plan on these issues . It is not a chart ranking them in importance. In fact a new Gallop poll shows that, while crime as the most important issue has risen, it's just 8% who say it is number one. Political extremism and crime are not the same thing and I would imagine both sides are equally worried about extremism.

"Americans’ responses to Gallup’s monthly question probing the “most important problem facing this country” suggest that Kirk’s slaying is reverberating with Americans, particularly Republicans.


Mentions of crime or violence have more than doubled over the past month, rising from 3% in August to 8% in September — the highest level since August 2020, and before that, 2002. This uptick comes amid a spate of violent events, including the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting that killed two children on Aug. 27 and the stabbing death of a Ukrainian woman on a North Carolina train on Aug. 22. However, most of the increase in crime mentions in this month's poll occurred after Kirk’s Sept. 10 murder.
 
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These newer polls indicate to me that Dems are in desperate need of a message which resonates with voters AND I can't even figure out a topic which makes sense for them to try to formulate a resonating message on. Clearly, they will struggle with immigration, crime, or the economy. Political extremism is going to be a tough one for them too. Will they choose climate change or abortion? They do well on those two topics, but they aren't even close to what is on the minds of voters. It will be interesting to see if Dems can formulate ANY message other than hating Trump (who won't even be their opponent in the next presidential race).
 
Callen said:
I'm sorry but have you posted the wrong chart? This chart is about who has a better plan on these issues . It is not a chart ranking them in importance. In fact a new Gallop poll shows that, while crime as the most important issue has risen, it's just 8% who say it is number one.
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I have no idea what you are talking about. Maybe you should go back and reread my comment a little slower and see the Reuters quote included just about the chart I posted.

I posted the chart to show a second new poll with results quite consistent to what we saw in comment 123 about three top issues and which party those polled felt would better handle them. But this new Reuters poll also found that (in their poll) political extremism was the country's biggest problem - with 28% indicating that vs. just 16% ranking the economy as the biggest problem. Maybe try reading slower and reading the whole comment before jumping in so quickly.
 
gbg3 said:
These newer polls indicate to me that Dems are in desperate need of a message which resonates with voters AND I can't even figure out a topic which makes sense for them to try to formulate a resonating message on. Clearly, they will struggle with immigration, crime, or the economy. Political extremism is going to be a tough one for them too.
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I think the Dems have a great opportunity to message on the economy, political extremism and healthcare. I think healthcare may be the sleeper issue.
 
gbg3 said:
I have no idea what you are talking about. Maybe you should go back and reread my comment a little slower and see the Reuters quote included just about the chart I posted.

I posted the chart to show a second new poll with results quite consistent to what we saw in comment 123 about three top issues and which party those polled felt would better handle them. But this new Reuters poll also found that (in their poll) political extremism was the country's biggest problem - with 28% indicating that vs. just 16% ranking the economy as the biggest problem. Maybe try reading slower and reading the whole comment before jumping in so quickly.
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I understood all of that. My point is that there is a difference between what people may think in terms of what the most important issues are, how they are being handled now and a philosophical/ideological view of who may handle it better. Facts are in poll after poll crime falls way below the economy in terms of importance and Trump' s approval on how he is handling the most important issues is dismal. That is today's reality. Up until now political violence hasn't even registered although I am certain both parties feel this is rising in importance.

Here is a recent You Gov poll. I'm sure you've seen it but I know it doesn't quite fir the narrative to you are trying to weave.

1758733653966.webp
 
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