Who will win the 2026 House Midterms?

[Silenthunder]

There are a total of 18 races viewed as "toss up" (10 Dem and 8 GOP seats) and 2 additional races where GOP/DEM will each lose a seat for no net change.

The CPR House Race Ratings assess the competitiveness of all 435 House elections. Competitiveness is determined by several factors, including the district's political makeup, the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals.

2026 CPR House Race ratings | Cook Political Report

www.cookpolitical.com

 

[Allan]

GOP.

 

[Helix]

I don't know.

 

[Integrityrespec]

With a bit over a year to go and the democrats continuing down the path of insanity with acts like refusing to condemn the murder of Charlie Kirk, advocating for mutilation of children, encouraging continued illegal entry into the country,dismissing the crime rate and tossing the claim of Fascism around at every Trump supporter the likelihood that the left will continue to bleed support will only continue.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

I think Republicans win the gerrymandering war.

GOP.

 

[Allan]

With a bit over a year to go and the democrats continuing down the path of insanity with acts like refusing to condemn the murder of Charlie Kirk

 

[KingLeo]

With the radical Trump policies hurting many Americans and the US in general and the Republican controlled House doing little, if anything, to even try to reel him in, I think the Democrats are poised to make significant gains in the House,
Enough to regain majority control of the House? Maybe.
And it seems Republicans are concerned about the midterms, hence the push to increase their gerrymandering.
If Republicans do maintain control of the House the outlook for the US is bleak given what we've seen since 2024.

 

[Callen]

The GOP. Trump will ensure a GOP win one way another. If these were normal times the Dems would win hands down on the issues.

 

[Anagram]

You never know, but it would be quite surprising for the Democrats not to take the House. The out of power party almost always makes significant gains in the House during midterm elections. So far there does not seem to be any indications against this trend for 2026. Republicans are coming off a close win historically in 2024 with the tipping point state in the presidential election won by less than 2% and the tipping point House seat won by about 1%, so there would not need to be much shift to the Democrats at all to take the chamber.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Right now - it isn't even close. The GOP is going to landslide (as of now)
Kirk's death, and ESPECIALLY, how Democrats responded to it in such a hateful way? That hurt them a great deal. Way more than they know.
It would take something way-way major to change a beating the Dems are going to get.
Anyone not thinking this, is living in comatose.

 

[Callen]

Right now - it isn't even close. The GOP is going to landslide (as of now)
Kirk's death, and ESPECIALLY, how Democrats responded to it in such a hateful way? That hurt them a great deal. Way more than they know.
It would take something way-way major to change a beating the Dems are going to get.
Anyone not thinking this, is living in comatose.

Be fair....SOME liberals. All Democratic leaders to a person condemned the assassination and encouraged civility.

 

[Blue Dog]

Prior to the race to gerrymander (advantage GOP), I would have said Democrats based on the history of the Presidents Party losing seats and/or majorities in the HoR.

I think GOP is going to win based on the fact they will create more seats than the opposition.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Right now - it isn't even close. The GOP is going to landslide (as of now)
Kirk's death, and ESPECIALLY, how Democrats responded to it in such a hateful way? That hurt them a great deal. Way more than they know.
It would take something way-way major to change a beating the Dems are going to get.
Anyone not thinking this, is living in comatose.

Speaking of hate

 

[Silenthunder]

Right now - it isn't even close. The GOP is going to landslide (as of now)
Kirk's death, and ESPECIALLY, how Democrats responded to it in such a hateful way? That hurt them a great deal. Way more than they know.
It would take something way-way major to change a beating the Dems are going to get.
Anyone not thinking this, is living in comatose.

While I agree with you that it's going to be a factor, it's too early to assume a GOP landslide. There have been 5 polls since Kirk's murder, and in those polls, Trump has dropped over 3.5 points.

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[iamwhatiseem]

Be fair....SOME liberals. All Democratic leaders to a person condemned the assassination and encouraged civility.

No they didn't.
And I am not talking about what the "leaders" said - of course they condemned it, what the f8ck else were they going to do?
What conservatives and independents saw - was people LIKE RIGHT ON THIS FORUM - who celebrated his death.
That sticks. And it will be remembered.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

While I agree with you that it's going to be a factor, it's too early to assume a GOP landslide. There have been 5 polls since Kirk's murder, and in those polls, Trump has dropped over 3.5 points.

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Rasputin shows it has climbed 5 points in past 2 weeks.
But who knows, polling hasn't exactly been a good method to measure anything for a long time.
Polls for decades and decades were pretty accurate to what eventually takes place. But for the past 10 years or so - they have been way off.
So who knows.
But in this VERY divided nation - no matter what happens Trump is never going to get much above 50% considering half the respondents (at least) would say no, no matter what.

 

[Silenthunder]

Rasputin shows it has climbed 5 points in past 2 weeks.
But who knows, polling hasn't exactly been a good method to measure anything for a long time.
Polls for decades and decades were pretty accurate to what eventually takes place. But for the past 10 years or so - they have been way off.
So who knows.
But in this VERY divided nation - no matter what happens Trump is never going to get much above 50% considering half the respondents (at least) would say no, no matter what.

I agree that in national races, polls have a lot of work to do. But with House and Senate races, they're still pretty accurate, and that's the primary question here.

 

[Roadvirus]

If Emperor Trumpatine keeps the current flow of shit going into next year, DEMS

 

[Luce]

There are a total of 18 races viewed as "toss up" (10 Dem and 8 GOP seats) and 2 additional races where GOP/DEM will each lose a seat for no net change.

The CPR House Race Ratings assess the competitiveness of all 435 House elections. Competitiveness is determined by several factors, including the district's political makeup, the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals.

2026 CPR House Race ratings | Cook Political Report

www.cookpolitical.com

Bold of you to assume there will be midterms.

 

[Callen]

While I agree with you that it's going to be a factor, it's too early to assume a GOP landslide. There have been 5 polls since Kirk's murder, and in those polls, Trump has dropped over 3.5 points.

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www.realclearpolling.com

In addition to the gerrymandering it will be about interfering and attempted rigging.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

I agree that in national races, polls have a lot of work to do. But with House and Senate races, they're still pretty accurate, and that's the primary question here.

You may be right on that, I am not up on how polls do locally, but it would make sense they are more accurate of course
Also - the DC crime lowering dramatically due to Trump's action - and that the Democrats came to the defense of criminals instead of crime victims?? - just how stupid can you get? Incredibly bad optics.
And Chicago's governor with a photo of a now convicted murderer as an example of community organizers is the answer?? Bad optics
Trump offers them help to get the crime down and they flat out refuse it?? Their own citizens are hating on that stupidity.
Trump is weighing that option carefully whether to send in guard or not - it could go very wrong, it is probably in Republican best interest to avoid it, keep acting like he will to keep showing Democrats defending the crime.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

Right now - it isn't even close. The GOP is going to landslide (as of now)
Kirk's death, and ESPECIALLY, how Democrats responded to it in such a hateful way? That hurt them a great deal. Way more than they know.
It would take something way-way major to change a beating the Dems are going to get.
Anyone not thinking this, is living in comatose.

Kirk will be memory holed before Halloween this year. Republicans cannot sustain that. Maybe some renewed interest if there is a trial.

I think they have milked all the news cycles they are going to get.

 

[Perotista]

There are a total of 18 races viewed as "toss up" (10 Dem and 8 GOP seats) and 2 additional races where GOP/DEM will each lose a seat for no net change.

The CPR House Race Ratings assess the competitiveness of all 435 House elections. Competitiveness is determined by several factors, including the district's political makeup, the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, the political environment in the state and nationally, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals.

2026 CPR House Race ratings | Cook Political Report

www.cookpolitical.com

I usually include lean along with tossups. Lean means these races are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. Which in my book means there are a potential as of 11 Sep 2025 41 house seats that could change parties. 23 currently held by democrats, 18 currently held by republicans. But to get a firmer grasp we’d have to wait for all the new mid-decade, mid-census gerrymandering to be completed. Then there is the generic congressional ballot, with the democrats as of today holding a 3-point lead.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote

We also can’t take into considering this far out of unforeseen events that may shape the outcome of the midterms. How the looming government shutdown will affect voters thinking and which party will they blame. As of today, I wouldn’t expect any drastic changes. Either party could gain or lose 1-5 seats. Placing both Cook’s report and the generic congressional ballot, there’s a real possibility of the democrats gaining the most votes nationwide, but losing a few seats due to mid-decade, mid-census republican gerrymandering. Once drawn, the district lines are supposed to last until the next census, not being redrawn mid-census as the GOP is doing. This redrawing for 100% purely partisan reason is highly unethical, but not illegal nor unconstitutional. But since when was our politics ethical especially in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship.

As of today, my SWAG is the GOP loses the nationwide popular vote by a couple of million votes but gains a couple of seats. Thanks to their mid-census and in my opinion unethical gerrymandering.

 

[Allan]

The GOP is going to landslide (as of now)
Kirk's death, and ESPECIALLY, how Democrats responded to it in such a hateful way?

 

[gman]

While I agree with you that it's going to be a factor, it's too early to assume a GOP landslide. There have been 5 polls since Kirk's murder, and in those polls, Trump has dropped over 3.5 points.

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Track President Trump's job approval with RealClearPolling. Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest ratings and political developments for a comprehensive view of the political landscape.

www.realclearpolling.com

I agree, but the problem IMO is that voters have short memory spans and on Election Day it will all depend on what matters to them most at that time. If the economy doesn’t improve, it’s the republicans who will suffer. But the gerrymandering may ultimately be the deciding factor.