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Who Can Win the Presidency in 2020?

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Eric the Green

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Who can win the presidency in 2020? There are many ways to estimate or try to predict this. What method do you use? What is your prediction? What do you expect?
 
Hopefully not Donald J. Trump.

Who knows at this point? I live in NH and our primary will start to paint the picture. I think any of them can beat him, and I think he can beat any of them. It's going to be all about the turnout. Trump's drooling fan base worships him so they will put aside their trips to the peep shows to cast their vote for him.
 
Eric the Green said:
Who can win the presidency in 2020? There are many ways to estimate or try to predict this. What method do you use? What is your prediction? What do you expect?
Click to expand...
It's Trump unless something completely unprecedented happens.
 
Astrology is a venerable method used to make prophecy and forecasts. I have used it with some success. Through the year I have tried to use it to predict presidential elections, with mixed results. Usually I was successful when the candidate that I favored won. I wasn't always so successful otherwise. I thought because the cycles of two significant outer planets, Uranus and Neptune, indicated a progressive trend, that Al Gore would win in 2000. These planets in that sign has indicated a progressive or revolutionary trend before. So did Pluto in Aquarius during the French Revolution and the triumph of the American one. Some people say that I was right, that Al Gore won; he just wasn't allowed to take office. But that fact impelled me to do more thorough research.

So I looked at the various factors, and focused on which aspects (angles between planets, the most significant thing in astrology) were in the charts or not in the charts of those who won and lost. I took account of various statistical factors and some traditional astrological ones, and since 2004 have developed a scoring system for candidates, as well as discovered that the new moon before the election has predicted the popular vote 90% of the time since 1900.


Here are the horoscope scores for nominees and major candidates over the last century:
1920: Warren G Harding 13-10*, James Cox 8-8
1924: Calvin Coolidge 10-9, John W. Davis 8-16, Robert LaFollette 6-14
1928: Herbert Hoover 11-11, Al Smith 4-16*
1932: Franklin D Roosevelt (FDR) 21-4 U, Herbert Hoover 11-11*
1936: Franklin D Roosevelt 21-4 U*, Alf Landon 10-16
1940: Franklin D Roosevelt 21-4 U*, Wendell Wilkie 8-9
1944: Franklin D Roosevelt 21-4 U, Thomas Dewey 8-6 SN
1948: Harry Truman 14-0, Thomas Dewey 8-6 SN
1952: Dwight Eisenhower 18-8, Adlai Stevenson 5-21
1956: Dwight Eisenhower 18-8, Adlai Stevenson 5-21*
1960: John F Kennedy (JFK) 13-6, Richard Nixon 18-7
1964: Lyndon B Johnson (LBJ) 8-6 J*, Barry Goldwater 20-11** (he had Mars in Scorpio rising, with inharmonious aspects: the perfect symbol of his stubborn "extremism")
1968: Richard Nixon 18-7*, Hubert Humphrey 9-5**, George Wallace 2-7 J (+ Mars rising)
1972: Richard Nixon 18-7*, George McGovern 9-10
1976: Jimmy Carter 12-4, Gerald Ford 12-8
1980: Ronald Reagan 22-6, Jimmy Carter 12-4*, John Anderson 14-8 J*
1984: Ronald Reagan 22-6, Walter Mondale 12-12 J/U*
1988: George H W Bush 14-6, Michael Dukakis 2-10*
1992: Bill Clinton 21-3 J, George H W Bush 14-6, Ross Perot 7-10 (his Jupiter rising is evident, but it was 10 degrees above his ascendant, so I didn't count it officially)
1996: Bill Clinton 21-3 J, Bob Dole 12-19, Ross Perot 7-10
2000: George W Bush 17-2*, Al Gore 10-9 (Mars rising)
2004: George W Bush 17-2*, John Kerry 8-12
2008: Barack Obama 19-2, John McCain 15-13
2012: Barack Obama 19-2, Mitt Romney 4-10 U, SN
2016: Donald Trump 9-4 (Mars rising), Hillary Rodham Clinton 9-11 J

* Saturn Return may hamper the candidates, especially if it happened in the first 3 years of the term sought. Those who WERE elected (always with the Saturn return in the 4th year of the term, except McKinley (2nd year) ), faced disaster during the term that likely destroyed them or their presidency.
** Saturn Return happened first before opponent's; more likely to lose.
J = Jupiter rising in their natal chart, a positive factor
U = Uranus rising in their natal chart, a minor positive factor
SN + Saturn at the Nadir in their chart, a negative factor.

So what are the candidates' scores for 2020, and what does it mean? See in my next post.
 
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Someone with either a D or an R after their name
 
Eric the Green said:
Who can win the presidency in 2020? There are many ways to estimate or try to predict this. What method do you use? What is your prediction? What do you expect?
Click to expand...


Dems will vote for the persons whom they believe is the strongest person to beat Trump.

I don't care what the polls say, I suspect the polling question is producing an unreliable result.

For example, if the polling question is, "Whom do you believe will be candidate who can beat Trump"

Answering that question will be different, than if the question is thus, "For whom are you going to vote?",


Tabulating results on the latter question is the only question that can tell us who is more likely to beat Trump.


Since, I'm not sure ( did they tell us? ) what the poll question was, I'm not trusting that poll.

So, all I can go by is that when I watch the debates, I ask myself who has the strongest personality, who is most unwavering in their positions, and has the strongest rebuttal to right wing talking points?

In my view, it isn't even a contest, that person is, hands down, Bernie Sanders.

I used to be afraid that Trump will crush Bernie on the Socialist moniker. I don't think he will, I've changed my mind.

See, it's the authenticity / consistency versus the conman/inconsistency contrast. You can look at old videos of Bernie, he's basically being saying same thing years ago that he says now, but look at old videos of Trump, he's all over the place.


one is the real deal, the other is a fake. I think the electorate will know who the con man is.
 
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Eric the Green said:
Who can win the presidency in 2020? There are many ways to estimate or try to predict this. What method do you use? What is your prediction? What do you expect?
Click to expand...

Given the DNC is broke, the RNC has about 90 million in cash, coupled with over 380 million raised by Trump, its pretty much in the cards thus far. The most every raised as a presidential candidate prior to Trump was Obama with 145 million. Obama had 41% voter participation with donations under $200 while Trump has 62%.

Unless something crazy happens, given the donations with a year still to go, the economy, unemployment, stock market, and jobs provisions, its going to be a cake walk for Trump.
 
Here's the latest polling averages from real clear politics, with their horoscope scores:

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden 28.4 14-7
Sanders 20.4 14-7
Warren 14.8 8-7
Buttigieg 7.2 7-9 (using 7:11 AM birthtime)
Bloomberg 7.0 7-5
Yang 3.8 8-15
Klobuchar 3.0 7-7
Steyer 2.4 11-7
Gabbard 1.6 11-6
Bennet 1.0 8-9
Delaney 0.5 7-5
Patrick 0.3 9-6
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Note that 3/4 of these candidates have positive or tie scores, and those with the best two scores are leading. On the other hand, among the many candidates who have dropped out, all but two had a negative horoscope score, and that includes Wayne Messam who was too unknown, too poor and too unqualified for his score to give him a boost. The other was Steve Bullock (10-7). The rest were:

Julian Castro, 8-13
Bill DeBlasio, 12-15
Kirsten Gillibrand, 7-13
Cory Booker, 6-7
John Hickenlooper, 6-12
Kamala Harris, 4-16
Beto O'Rourke, 11-26
Seth Moulton, 9-10
Tim Ryan, 3-12
Richard Ojeda, 10-13
Eric Swalwell, 4-6
Marianne Williamson, 13-14
Jay Inslee, 3-7
Mike Gravel, 5-10
Joe Sestak, 3-10
What did all these candidates have in common? They were not skilled candidates. They could not connect, were not likable, articulate, confident, strategic, or charismatic enough.

The conclusion: those who want Trump to lose, are well-advised to vote for Sanders or Biden, and not Elizabeth Warren or any of the other candidates. Fair warning! To have any chance, within a margin of error, the Democratic nominee must have a score greater than or equal to Trump.

Those with the best scores on the scene, Landrieu and McAuliffe, chickened out. We are left with the two old familiar geezers as the only ones who have a chance.
 
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Condor060 said:
Given the DNC is broke, the RNC has about 90 million in cash, coupled with over 380 million raised by Trump, its pretty much in the cards thus far. The most every raised as a presidential candidate prior to Trump was Obama with 145 million. Obama had 41% voter participation with donations under $200 while Trump has 62%.

Unless something crazy happens, given the donations with a year still to go, the economy, unemployment, stock market, and jobs provisions, its going to be a cake walk for Trump.
Click to expand...

After the nominee is chosen, there will be dough, lots of it. Doubt me?


One billionaire (who is billionaire liquid, unlike trump, who is soliciting donations), who can write a check for several billion big ones, has promised to help the cause, and that guy is Bloomberg. He makes Trump look like a pauper.


Money is no longer an object.

The "economy" isn't as robust as Trump claims, with manufacturing struggling, farmers going bankrupt, and suicides. It's not cake walk, and Bloombergs billions will make sure it's not.
 
Eric the Green said:
Here's the latest polling averages from real clear politics, with their horoscope scores:

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden 28.4 14-7
Sanders 20.4 14-7
Warren 14.8 8-7
Buttigieg 7.2 7-9 (using 7:11 AM birthtime)
Bloomberg 7.0 7-5
Yang 3.8 8-15
Klobuchar 3.0 7-7
Steyer 2.4 11-7
Gabbard 1.6 11-6
Bennet 1.0 8-9
Delaney 0.5 7-5
Patrick 0.3 9-6

Note that 3/4 of these candidates have positive or tie scores, and those with the best two scores are leading. On the other hand, among the many candidates who have dropped out, all but two had a negative horoscope score, and that includes Wayne Messam who was too unknown, too poor and too unqualified for his score to give him a boost. The other was Steve Bullock (10-7). The rest were:

Julian Castro, 8-13
Bill DeBlasio, 12-15
Kirsten Gillibrand, 7-13
Cory Booker, 6-7
John Hickenlooper, 6-12
Kamala Harris, 4-16
Beto O'Rourke, 11-26
Seth Moulton, 9-10
Tim Ryan, 3-12
Richard Ojeda, 10-13
Eric Swalwell, 4-6
Marianne Williamson, 13-14
Jay Inslee, 3-7
Mike Gravel, 5-10
Joe Sestak, 3-10
What did all these candidates have in common? They were not skilled candidates. They could not connect, were not likable, articulate, confident, strategic, or charismatic enough.

The conclusion: those who want Trump to lose, are well-advised to vote for Sanders or Biden, and not Elizabeth Warren or any of the other candidates. Fair warning! To have any chance, within a margin of error, the Democratic nominee must have a score greater than or equal to Trump.

Those with the best scores on the scene, Landrieu and McAuliffe, chickened out. We are left with the two old familiar geezers as the only ones who have a chance.
Click to expand...


Bernie will excite the base. Moderates, who are older, more politicaly active, will turn out to vote anyway


Biden will NOT excite the base, who are younger, who might not turn out to vote ( they didn't so much for Clinton )


I don't care what the polls say, Bernie is the one to beat Trump NOT Biden.

During debates, Trump will walk all over Biden, he stutters, that's not good, not against a guy like Trump.


With a large turnout, Trump loses. Biden doesn't get the crowds like Bernie does

Bernie will intimidate Trump. Biden won't.
 
Eric the Green said:

The conclusion: those who want Trump to lose, are well-advised to vote for Sanders or Biden, and not Elizabeth Warren or any of the other candidates. Fair warning! To have any chance, within a margin of error, the Democratic nominee must have a score greater than or equal to Trump.
Click to expand...


No.

If they pick Warren and she's the dem nominee, all the dems are going to vote for her. It will be more 50/50 than you think.
 
OscarLevant said:
After the nominee is chosen, there will be dough, lots of it. Doubt me?


One billionaire (who is billionaire liquid, unlike trump, who is soliciting donations), who can write a check for several billion big ones, has promised to help the cause, and that guy is Bloomberg. He makes Trump look like a pauper.


Money is no longer an object.

The "economy" isn't as robust as Trump claims, with manufacturing struggling, farmers going bankrupt, and suicides. It's not cake walk, and Bloombergs billions will make sure it's not.
Click to expand...

I love how democrats would sell their souls to beat Trump by backing a rich, white, old, capitalist who doesn’t even go to the debates with the commonors, and their whorehouse party doesn’t make a peep.

You just can’t make this **** up!
 
Trump is also favored by the new moon before election, on Oct.16th. The winner is indicated according to horary astrology rules, more or less. Signs of the zodiac are ruled by planets. The rising sign (Ascendant) at the time of the new moon represents the challenging party, the setting sign on the descendant represents the party in power. Whichever sign's ruling planet is higher in the sky, wins the election 90% of the time. For 2020, the party in power is favored. Incumbent presidents also tend to be favored, but that's not part of the system.

But with this caveat: in 2016, the party in power was favored, and Hillary won the popular vote, as Gore did in 2000 according to the same indicator. The Moon rules the people, so the New Moon indicates the popular vote. So far only Republicans have won the electoral college without winning the popular vote. That has happened 4 times in history, only in the 19th and 21st centuries. However, another factor has been whether Uranus, the rebel planet, is located at the Nadir or in the 4th house, the place of the Sun near midnight, in the New Moon chart. This represents a revolution against the government in power (also indicated by the 10th house, the point overhead). This has happened 6 times.

Uranus in 2016 was below the horizon near the Nadir and square (90 degree aspect) the Ascendant (but from the 3rd house for the first time ever). This helped to reverse the popular vote and indicate a revolution against the party in power, so Trump won (he also had a higher horoscope score than Hillary). For the second time ever, this will be repeated in 2020. So, Uranus in the 3rd house squaring the Ascendant at the New Moon before the election could indicate that the party in power is deposed, despite the indications from the rulers of the Ascendant and Descendant.

Another caveat could be important too: Jupiter and Saturn make a conjunction in Dec. 2020. These conjunctions in zero or one years since 1841 have indicated that the president elected will die in office (as happened every year from 1841 to 1961), or that the party in power will lose (as happened when the party was not entrenched in power, 7 out of 11 times, every year since 1800 except 1820, 1880, 1900 and 1940).

So Trump has the advantage in his horoscope score, but if Biden or Sanders are nominated, the score comparison will be closer than in 2016. Trump has the advantage with the popular vote indicator too, but with those two caveats: Uranus square the Ascendant from below the horizon, and Jupiter conjunct Saturn in 2020.

I also recommend the Lichtman Keys. These have not been finalized though, and won't be until a few months before the election at least.
 
As you can see, the horoscope scores work well. Logic about who the candidates are does not prevail. The scores are working, and they will work, in all likelihood. No system is perfect and no prediction is certain. It's a matter of percentages. The scores indicate who is likable and an effective campaigner (not who is the best president). Biden has a chance, and so does Sanders, however things may appear. And the polls so far back me up.

The national polls have shown since 2016 that Sanders is ahead of Trump. They have shown Biden ahead of him for at least a year now. Here's some recent swing state polls from real clear politics:

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders Marquette Sanders 47, Trump 46 Sanders +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren Marquette Trump 48, Warren 45 Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Buttigieg Marquette Trump 46, Buttigieg 44 Trump +2

Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 51, Trump 49 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders Florida Atlantic University Sanders 53, Trump 47 Sanders +6
Florida: Trump vs. Warren Florida Atlantic University Trump 49, Warren 51 Warren +2
Florida: Trump vs. Buttigieg Florida Atlantic University Trump 50, Buttigieg 50 Tie

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders EPIC-MRA Sanders 50, Trump 45 Sanders +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren EPIC-MRA Warren 48, Trump 45 Warren +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Buttigieg EPIC-MRA Buttigieg 47, Trump 43 Buttigieg +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Bloomberg EPIC-MRA Bloomberg 49, Trump 42 Bloomberg +7
 
Eric the Green said:
Who can win the presidency in 2020? There are many ways to estimate or try to predict this. What method do you use? What is your prediction? What do you expect?
Click to expand...

Until the Democratic Party rallies around a final nominee, all I have to go on is disapproval of Trump. Based on this alone, Trump loses this November. Easily, in fact. But once one Democrat is left standing, it's either going to get easier or more difficult to get rid of Trump. It could be easier since left-of-center voters will have one candidate to throw their weight and their dollars to, and it could get more difficult because the GOP, Fox News, Russia and Saudi Arabia are going to throw everything they have at that candidate.

There is one advantage that Democrats have above all else, though, and this can't be overstated: fear. The sheer horror of Trump winning a second term is a greater motivator than I think most anyone really grasps.
 
OscarLevant said:
After the nominee is chosen, there will be dough, lots of it. Doubt me?

One billionaire (who is billionaire liquid, unlike trump, who is soliciting donations), who can write a check for several billion big ones, has promised to help the cause, and that guy is Bloomberg. He makes Trump look like a pauper.

Money is no longer an object.

The "economy" isn't as robust as Trump claims, with manufacturing struggling, farmers going bankrupt, and suicides. It's not cake walk, and Bloombergs billions will make sure it's not.
Click to expand...

Its not about the amount of money you have. Its about 62% donations from voters under $200. Other peoples money.

Its about voters pulling out of the DNC. Its about corporations pulling out of the DNC. Throwing money at an election will never compare to voters putting up there own money for an election.

As far as your farmer idea, I guess you never told CNN that. Even CNN knows where the farmers are voting
'We've gone this far': Farmers stick with Trump over trade - CNNPolitics
 
OscarLevant said:
Bernie will excite the base. Moderates, who are older, more politicaly active, will turn out to vote anyway


Biden will NOT excite the base, who are younger, who might not turn out to vote ( they didn't so much for Clinton )


I don't care what the polls say, Bernie is the one to beat Trump NOT Biden.

During debates, Trump will walk all over Biden, he stutters, that's not good, not against a guy like Trump.


With a large turnout, Trump loses. Biden doesn't get the crowds like Bernie does

Bernie will intimidate Trump. Biden won't.
Click to expand...

I'm voting for Bernie myself. You may be right. Biden does have a good score for effectiveness and likability, so he may be underestimated.
 
Eric the Green said:
I'm voting for Bernie myself. You may be right. Biden does have a good score for effectiveness and likability, so he may be underestimated.
Click to expand...

Bernie is more effective and more likable.
 
TRUMP will win

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
 
OscarLevant said:
Bernie will intimidate Trump. Biden won't.
Click to expand...

He already does. There is reporting that trump is obsessing about Bernie and his high popularity and is scared.
 
I think Biden has the best chance to win against Trump, especially if he chooses a good running mate. Bernie is probably next in line to win. Don't know about this astrology effect, just going by who I think will get the most votes from Americans. Personally, I will vote for any candidate if their name isn't Trump. Trump serves at the pleasure of Mr. Putin and is a traitor, draft dodger, conman, criminal, liar, racist......and the list goes on. Does not have the maturity, character, intelligence or qualifications to be in any leadership position.
 
The real clear politics page has a listing of current polling averages. Today the averages show a slight gain for Sanders, who is now above the 20 mark again.

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden28.0
Sanders21.9
Warren14.7
Buttigieg7.6
Bloomberg7.3
Yang3.6
Klobuchar3.4
Steyer2.0
Gabbard1.3
Bennet0.8
Delaney0.3
Patrick0.2
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020

I deleted here the reference to Cory Booker since he has dropped out.

I am suggesting that my method of horoscope scoring can indicate which candidates have a chance to defeat Donald Trump, who has a 9-4 score. The higher the percentage, the higher the score. Sanders and Biden have 14-7, which put them within the margin of error as possible winners against Trump. The others have lower percentage scores (positive vs. negative). These scores are based on the aspects in their charts, according to the rating of the aspects +2 to -1 or neutral) based on the charts/birthdays of all candidates in US history. The scores do not indicate who would be the best president, but who has the candidate skills (charisma, communication, connecting with voters, strength, likability, etc.) to win the presidency.
 
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