11/2/20
It’s election eve, with one day to go until votes are counted in the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden. Here’s our daily update on where things stand in the polls and the early vote.
The final polls from prominent pollsters all show Biden with a bigger lead. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Biden up by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent, with 6 percent undecided. That compares to the last NBC/WSJ poll of 2016, in which Clinton led 44-40 with 16 percent undecided — more than twice as many gettable votes. The final Fox News poll has Biden up 8 points, 52-44, with 4 percent undecided. Its final 2016 poll had Clinton up 48-44, with 8 percent undecided. It’s similar in swing states; even when the margins are comparable, there are fewer undecideds. Today, for example, Monmouth University has Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, with 5 percent undecided, vs. Clinton 48-44 with 8 percent undecided. In Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School has Biden up 48-43 with 9 percent undecided, vs. Clinton up 46-40 with 14 percent undecided. According to FiveThirtyEight averages, in Wisconsin, Biden is at 51.9 percent and Trump at 43.7 percent, with about 4 percent undecided. At the end of 2016, it was Clinton up 49.6-44.3, with 6 percent undecided. In Michigan, 6 percent are undecided, vs. 8 percent in 2020. In Ohio, it’s 5 percent vs. 7 percent four years ago.
Which brings us to Biden’s image. As The Post’s Philip Bump reported this weekend, his popularity has gradually increased as the race has worn on, with a majority of voters now viewing him positively, compared to about 4 in 10 voters with Clinton four years ago. While Biden previously led among voters who didn’t like either candidate — a crucial group that went for Trump in 2016 and proved decisive in key states — Biden’s increased popularity has actually rendered this group too small for pollsters to break out those numbers. That says plenty. So for Trump to win, he needs to somehow win over voters who like Biden and not him or win much more of a smaller share of voters who don’t like either of them. Either that, or polls would have to be even more wrong than 2016 and/or turnout would have to look nothing like we’re expecting amid the coronavirus pandemic.
