What Americans Think about Elections

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Trump would win if both he and DeSantis sought the 2024 Republican nomination. Twenty-two percent (22%) think DeSantis would win, while 23% believe neither Trump nor DeSantis would win the 2024 nomination. Another 15% are not sure. DeSantis and Trump have nearly identical approval numbers, although Trump generates significantly stronger disapproval among Democrats and independent voters. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Likely Voters view Trump favorably, including 35% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Forty-five percent (45%) view Trump unfavorably, including 35% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent (52%) view DeSantis favorably, including 37% who have a Very Favorable impression of the Florida governor. Thirty-three percent (33%) view DeSantis unfavorably, including 26% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him. Another 16% are not sure.

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Doug64 said:

Personally, I hope Trump doesn't run--in which case we'll almost certainly see a President-elect DeSantis taking the oath in 2025.

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MamboDervish said:

Nope. Not likely.

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Spirit of The Millennium said:

DeSantis hanging in to the convention then losing to Trump is just about my ideal scenario. Whatever the polls say (now) I am sure Trump cannot win again. Even without a crucial part of his base leaving with DeSantis.

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Doug64 said:

DeSantis' base pretty much is Trump's base--about the only ones that would "leave with DeSantis" are ones like me that simply won't vote for Trump no matter what his policies are or who his opponent is. Though if DeSantis runs even if Trump throws his hat into the ring and Trump does his usual dive into the gutter, that number might grow.

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Spirit of The Millennium said:

In primaries, it's the candidates who are alike who do the most damage to each other. For instance Warren and Sanders. Even if they try hard not to step on each other's toes, the fact they're competing for the same voters makes any small dispute between them big news.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. Republicans have lost three points of their congressional advantage since March, when they led 50%-39%. In April 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a five-point advantage (45% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 32% of Likely U.S. Voters say that if a candidate for election in their state were endorsed by Trump, it would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Forty-three percent (43%) say a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, while 23% say Trump’s endorsement would not make much difference. By comparison, 26% of voters say an endorsement of a candidate in their state by President Joe Biden would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, while 46% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate and Biden’s endorsement would not make much difference for 26%. Last November, 51% of Likely Voters said they would be less likely to vote for a Biden-endorsed candidate in their state. Trump has endorsed author J.D. Vance in this week’s Ohio GOP Senate primary. Not surprisingly, Trump’s endorsement carries the most weight with Republican voters – 59% would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate in their state. By comparison, 47% of Democrats would be more likely to vote for a Biden-endorsed candidate.

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A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that 61% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Biden should not run for a second term as president in 2024. Only 28% say Biden should seek reelection, while another 11% are not sure. If the next presidential election were held today, and Biden were running against Trump, 50% would vote for Trump while 36% would vote for Biden. The results would be somewhat closer with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Biden’s Republican opponent. Forty-six percent (46%) would vote for DeSantis and 35% would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while another 11% say they would vote for someone else. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters have a favorable impression of Biden, including 25% who have a Very Favorable opinion of him. Fifty-five percent (55%) have an unfavorable view of Biden, including 44% whose opinion of the president is Very Unfavorable. “While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 39% want him to run for re-election,” the Heartland Institute said in an analysis of the survey results. “Among Hispanics, just 43% have a favorable opinion and only 31% want him to run in the 2024 presidential election. Women voters – a key to Biden’s 2020 victory – have soured on the president, with only 26% wanting him to run again.”

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. Republicans have added one point to their congressional advantage since April, when they led 47%-39%. In May 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, and the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 55% of Likely U.S. voters believe cheating likely affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 39% who think it’s Very Likely. Thirty-nine percent (39%) don’t think cheating affected the 2020 election, including 28% who say it’s Not At All Likely. These findings are almost identical to results in March. Voters overwhelmingly endorse voter ID laws. Seventy-nine percent (79%) believe requiring photo ID to vote is a reasonable measure to protect the integrity of elections, and only 15% disagree. Support for voter ID has increased slightly since March. When asked to choose their election priorities, 39% believe making it easier for everybody to vote is more important, while 59% think making sure there is no cheating in elections is more important.

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Risky Thicket said:

Affluent candidates have a significant advantage. And money flows in. And it flows from affluent Americans, foreigners and from corporations. Dark money is big in American political auctions.

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A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 76% of Likely U.S. voters are excited to vote in the midterm elections, including 49% who are Very Excited. Twenty-one percent (21%) aren’t excited about voting in November. Although there is only an eight-point gap between Republicans (85%) and Democrats (78%) who say they’re excited about voting in the congressional midterms, the GOP leads by a much wider margin among those who are Very Excited to vote in November – 62% of Republicans versus 46% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 63% are excited to vote in the midterm elections, including 39% who are Very Excited about voting. These findings are consistent with the generic congressional ballot, where Republicans held a nine-point lead last week.

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Doug64 said:

Going by what the authors of Freakanomics learned when they looked into the question, above a certain floor money didn't make much of a difference and was more of an indicator of who donors thought would win.

And another piece of evidence of the likely coming Democratic shellacking:

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Doug64 said:

Going by what the authors of Freakanomics learned when they looked into the question, above a certain floor money didn't make much of a difference and was more of an indicator of who donors thought would win.

And another piece of evidence of the likely coming Democratic shellacking:

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Spirit of The Millennium said:

Rasmussen has a paywall now. Without the methodology the result is worthless.

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Risky Thicket said:

I appreciate your effort but I'm uncertain as to what the data is or how it was measured.

Not having read Freakanomics I can't respond to the reference.

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Risky Thicket said:

Rasmussan's survey, it seems, has little to do with money in politics. Beyond that, in my previous post I was addressing US politics at large and money. I was not referring to a particular party.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. Republicans have lost three points of their advantage since last week, when they led 48%-39%. The Generic Congressional Ballot is now the closest it’s been all year. In May 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. Republicans have gained two points since last week, when they led 47%-41%. The Generic Congressional Ballot is now the closest it’s been all year.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. Republicans have gained one point since last week, when they led 48%-40%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. The GOP lead has shrunk by four points since last week, when they led 48%-39%.The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. The Republican lead has increased by three points since last week, when they led 46%-41%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

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Doug64 said:

And the pendulum swings back. We'll be fine, so long as the pendulum doesn't swing too widely.

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Spirit of The Millennium said:

FiveThirtyEight has it at 2.3%

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Doug64 said:

And the RCP average has it at 3.4%. Of course, the Rasmussen poll is the only one filtering for Likely Voters, the rest are only filtering for Registered Voters.

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