What Americans Think about Elections

[Doug64]

Time for another "What Americans Think ..." thread! Like the others these will generally be Rasmussen polls, when they do something specific enough. In this case, it's the Trump/DeSantis matchup!

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is very popular with Republican voters, but if former President Donald Trump seeks the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, most expect Trump would beat DeSantis.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 40% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Trump would win if both he and DeSantis sought the 2024 Republican nomination. Twenty-two percent (22%) think DeSantis would win, while 23% believe neither Trump nor DeSantis would win the 2024 nomination. Another 15% are not sure. DeSantis and Trump have nearly identical approval numbers, although Trump generates significantly stronger disapproval among Democrats and independent voters. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Likely Voters view Trump favorably, including 35% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president. Forty-five percent (45%) view Trump unfavorably, including 35% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent (52%) view DeSantis favorably, including 37% who have a Very Favorable impression of the Florida governor. Thirty-three percent (33%) view DeSantis unfavorably, including 26% who have a Very Unfavorable impression of him. Another 16% are not sure.

Personally, I hope Trump doesn't run--in which case we'll almost certainly see a President-elect DeSantis taking the oath in 2025. If Trump does run things get a lot more iffy, and the disapproval and "Very" numbers they each have show why.

 

[MamboDervish]

Personally, I hope Trump doesn't run--in which case we'll almost certainly see a President-elect DeSantis taking the oath in 2025.

Nope. Not likely.

 

[Doug64]

Nope. Not likely.

I tend to agree, if Trump doesn't run I will be very, very surprised.

 

[Ug make hammer]

DeSantis hanging in to the convention then losing to Trump is just about my ideal scenario. Whatever the polls say (now) I am sure Trump cannot win again. Even without a crucial part of his base leaving with DeSantis.

 

[Doug64]

DeSantis hanging in to the convention then losing to Trump is just about my ideal scenario. Whatever the polls say (now) I am sure Trump cannot win again. Even without a crucial part of his base leaving with DeSantis.

DeSantis' base pretty much is Trump's base--about the only ones that would "leave with DeSantis" are ones like me that simply won't vote for Trump no matter what his policies are or who his opponent is. Though if DeSantis runs even if Trump throws his hat into the ring and Trump does his usual dive into the gutter, that number might grow.

 

[Ug make hammer]

DeSantis' base pretty much is Trump's base--about the only ones that would "leave with DeSantis" are ones like me that simply won't vote for Trump no matter what his policies are or who his opponent is. Though if DeSantis runs even if Trump throws his hat into the ring and Trump does his usual dive into the gutter, that number might grow.

In primaries, it's the candidates who are alike who do the most damage to each other. For instance Warren and Sanders. Even if they try hard not to step on each other's toes, the fact they're competing for the same voters makes any small dispute between them big news.

 

[Doug64]

In primaries, it's the candidates who are alike who do the most damage to each other. For instance Warren and Sanders. Even if they try hard not to step on each other's toes, the fact they're competing for the same voters makes any small dispute between them big news.

True, like the Nazis and the Communists in 1920’s and early ‘30’s Germany writ small. It doesn’t help that with so little difference between their positions, alike candidates tend to turn to personal attacks.

 

[Doug64]

So, a little good news for Democrats:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. Republicans have lost three points of their congressional advantage since March, when they led 50%-39%. In April 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a five-point advantage (45% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. That margin narrowed as the November 2018 midterms neared, and was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

 

[Doug64]

Something that may or may not be of much importance for Democrats (I don't know how many endorsements Biden has made for the primaries, if any), but it certainly matters for Republicans.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 32% of Likely U.S. Voters say that if a candidate for election in their state were endorsed by Trump, it would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Forty-three percent (43%) say a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, while 23% say Trump’s endorsement would not make much difference. By comparison, 26% of voters say an endorsement of a candidate in their state by President Joe Biden would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, while 46% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate and Biden’s endorsement would not make much difference for 26%. Last November, 51% of Likely Voters said they would be less likely to vote for a Biden-endorsed candidate in their state. Trump has endorsed author J.D. Vance in this week’s Ohio GOP Senate primary. Not surprisingly, Trump’s endorsement carries the most weight with Republican voters – 59% would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate in their state. By comparison, 47% of Democrats would be more likely to vote for a Biden-endorsed candidate.

So far, Trump is 55-0 when it comes to endorsements this year, including all 22 in today's primaries--including Vance. I have no idea how much of that is Trump's political pull and him picking the ones most likely to win to make himself look good, probably some mix of both.

 

[Doug64]

Looking a bit ahead, seeing how we haven't gotten through the midterms yet, but ...

A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that 61% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Biden should not run for a second term as president in 2024. Only 28% say Biden should seek reelection, while another 11% are not sure. If the next presidential election were held today, and Biden were running against Trump, 50% would vote for Trump while 36% would vote for Biden. The results would be somewhat closer with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Biden’s Republican opponent. Forty-six percent (46%) would vote for DeSantis and 35% would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while another 11% say they would vote for someone else. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters have a favorable impression of Biden, including 25% who have a Very Favorable opinion of him. Fifty-five percent (55%) have an unfavorable view of Biden, including 44% whose opinion of the president is Very Unfavorable. “While 64% of black voters said they have a favorable opinion of Biden, only 39% want him to run for re-election,” the Heartland Institute said in an analysis of the survey results. “Among Hispanics, just 43% have a favorable opinion and only 31% want him to run in the 2024 presidential election. Women voters – a key to Biden’s 2020 victory – have soured on the president, with only 26% wanting him to run again.”

 

[Doug64]

Not any race in particular, but still significant considering the results of previous elections--especially non-presidential elections.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. Republicans have added one point to their congressional advantage since April, when they led 47%-39%. In May 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, and the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

 

[Doug64]

And here's why Democrats in general and Stacy Abrams in particular shot themselves with their "Jim Crow 2.0" lies:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 55% of Likely U.S. voters believe cheating likely affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 39% who think it’s Very Likely. Thirty-nine percent (39%) don’t think cheating affected the 2020 election, including 28% who say it’s Not At All Likely. These findings are almost identical to results in March. Voters overwhelmingly endorse voter ID laws. Seventy-nine percent (79%) believe requiring photo ID to vote is a reasonable measure to protect the integrity of elections, and only 15% disagree. Support for voter ID has increased slightly since March. When asked to choose their election priorities, 39% believe making it easier for everybody to vote is more important, while 59% think making sure there is no cheating in elections is more important.

 

[Peter]

How about electing some who isn't a pensioner?

I know this is heresy but maybe even someone under 40.
Totally radical!

 

[Risky Thicket]

Let’s be honest. We no longer have elections. We have political auctions. Add to that, they are almost continuous.

Affluent candidates have a significant advantage. And money flows in. And it flows from affluent Americans, foreigners and from corporations. Dark money is big in American political auctions.

If you need proof - and you shouldn’t - just look at how house state and national campaigns are often reported, by money raised.

 

[Doug64]

Affluent candidates have a significant advantage. And money flows in. And it flows from affluent Americans, foreigners and from corporations. Dark money is big in American political auctions.

Going by what the authors of Freakanomics learned when they looked into the question, above a certain floor money didn't make much of a difference and was more of an indicator of who donors thought would win.

And another piece of evidence of the likely coming Democratic shellacking:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 76% of Likely U.S. voters are excited to vote in the midterm elections, including 49% who are Very Excited. Twenty-one percent (21%) aren’t excited about voting in November. Although there is only an eight-point gap between Republicans (85%) and Democrats (78%) who say they’re excited about voting in the congressional midterms, the GOP leads by a much wider margin among those who are Very Excited to vote in November – 62% of Republicans versus 46% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 63% are excited to vote in the midterm elections, including 39% who are Very Excited about voting. These findings are consistent with the generic congressional ballot, where Republicans held a nine-point lead last week.

 

[Ug make hammer]

Going by what the authors of Freakanomics learned when they looked into the question, above a certain floor money didn't make much of a difference and was more of an indicator of who donors thought would win.

And another piece of evidence of the likely coming Democratic shellacking:

Rasmussen has a paywall now. Without the methodology the result is worthless.

 

[Risky Thicket]

Going by what the authors of Freakanomics learned when they looked into the question, above a certain floor money didn't make much of a difference and was more of an indicator of who donors thought would win.

And another piece of evidence of the likely coming Democratic shellacking:

I appreciate your effort but I'm uncertain as to what the data is or how it was measured.

Not having read Freakanomics I can't respond to the reference.

Rasmussan's survey, it seems, has little to do with money in politics. Beyond that, in my previous post I was addressing US politics at large and money. I was not referring to a particular party.

 

[Doug64]

Rasmussen has a paywall now. Without the methodology the result is worthless.

Rasmussen has a paywall on many--but not all--of their weekday articles. But I've paid, so I can access the same crosstabs as journalists use in their articles. For this poll: "The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 23-24, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence." As for how good they are, the last time I checked FiveThirtyEight had given them a "B" rating, for what it's worth.

I appreciate your effort but I'm uncertain as to what the data is or how it was measured.

Not having read Freakanomics I can't respond to the reference.

The Freakanomics authors had serious trouble finding comparable data, but IIRC the end result was that doubling your spending gave you a one or two percent increase in the poll results. So you need to spend enough to get name recognition, but once you've accomplished that your marginal benefits drop off rapidly.

Rasmussan's survey, it seems, has little to do with money in politics. Beyond that, in my previous post I was addressing US politics at large and money. I was not referring to a particular party.

No, it was simply the latest Rasmussen poll that had to do with the coming elections. Which was why I worded the introduction as I did. And here's another, with slightly better news for Democrats:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. Republicans have lost three points of their advantage since last week, when they led 48%-39%. The Generic Congressional Ballot is now the closest it’s been all year. In May 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a one-point advantage (43% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

 

[Doug64]

And the latest Rasmussen generic vote question (weekly now, until the election). And last week's good news for Democrats mostly evaporated:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. Republicans have gained two points since last week, when they led 47%-41%. The Generic Congressional Ballot is now the closest it’s been all year.

 

[Doug64]

Since it's Friday ...

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. Republicans have gained one point since last week, when they led 48%-40%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

 

[Doug64]

Another Friday:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (9%) are not sure. The GOP lead has shrunk by four points since last week, when they led 48%-39%.The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

 

[Doug64]

And the pendulum swings back. We'll be fine, so long as the pendulum doesn't swing too widely.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. The Republican lead has increased by three points since last week, when they led 46%-41%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

 

[Ug make hammer]

And the pendulum swings back. We'll be fine, so long as the pendulum doesn't swing too widely.

FiveThirtyEight has it at 2.3%

 

[Doug64]

FiveThirtyEight has it at 2.3%

And the RCP average has it at 3.4%. Of course, the Rasmussen poll is the only one filtering for Likely Voters, the rest are only filtering for Registered Voters.

 

[Ug make hammer]

And the RCP average has it at 3.4%. Of course, the Rasmussen poll is the only one filtering for Likely Voters, the rest are only filtering for Registered Voters.

Not so. FiveThirtyEight listed polls:

Rasmussen LV
McLaughlin LV
NewsNation RV
YouGov LV
Morning Consult RV
Echelon Insights RV ... 47D/45R
Echelon Insights LV ... 47D/46R (these are the same poll)
OnMessage LV

Since you mentioned yourself that Rassmussen is a B rated pollster, it's also worth noting that they lean 1.5% to the Republicans. That makes your 8% actually a 5%

RCP are a much inferior aggregator since they don't even try to account for poll quality or past lean.