Virginia posters: Who are you going to vote for Governor in November ?

[Tender Branson]

Virginia currently has a Republican governor with Glenn Youngkin, who won the election in 2021 during the unpopular Biden presidency.

Virginia is usually a moderately Democratic state (D+5 to D+10), especially since 2008. Before that, it voted Republican, but the influx of educated/leftwing Dems into Northern Virginia and Richmond made it a solid D state in the past 20 years (for President).

Virginia still elects Republican governors though, especially if the Democratic president is unpopular. In fact, Virginia has elected governors of the opposition party in the past 40 years (the only exception was in 2013, when Obama was president, but Terry McAuliffe barely won. But even there, voters punished the D governor candidate a bit).

Virginia governors are term-limited to just 1 term, so Youngkin cannot run for another term this year.

His Lt. Governor Winsome Sears will run instead, while for the Democrats, US-Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger will run.

Both would be the first female governors of Virginia, if elected. And because both are the nominees already, Virginia will definitely get its first female governor in November. The question will be the first white, or the first black female governor. But Spanberger is far ahead in polls. And since Trump is president and DOGE and government worker cuts are a big issue in Virginia, Trump's agenda will be significantly punished in November by voters. Spankberger should easily be elected Governor.

2025 Virginia gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Tender Branson]

Users, who are not living in Virginia, can also vote in the poll (options 5, 6, 7, 8).

 

[Tender Branson]

Abigail Anne Davis Spanberger (/ˈspænbɜːrɡər/ SPAN-bur-gər; née Davis; born August 7, 1979) is an American politician and former intelligence officer who served as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 7th congressional district from 2019 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she won reelection in 2020 and 2022.

She is the Democratic nominee for governor in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election. She will face incumbent lieutenant governor and Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears. If elected, Spanberger will become the first woman to serve as governor of Virginia.

Abigail Spanberger - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Tender Branson]

Winsome Earle-Sears (born March 11, 1964) is an American politician, businesswoman, and Marine Corps veteran serving as the 42nd lieutenant governor of Virginia since 2022. A member of the Republican Party, she is Virginia's first female lieutenant governor and the first woman of color to hold statewide office in Virginia.

Born in Jamaica, Earle-Sears immigrated to the United States in 1970. She served in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2002 to 2004. She also served on the Virginia Board of Education, and ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2004 and for U.S. Senate in 2018. In 2021, Earle-Sears was elected lieutenant governor of Virginia, narrowly defeating Democratic nominee Hala Ayala.

Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee in the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, becoming the second African American female major-party gubernatorial nominee, after Stacey Abrams. She will face former U.S. representative and Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger. If elected, Earle-Sears would be the first Black woman in American history to serve as governor of a U.S. state, and the first female governor of Virginia.

Winsome Earle-Sears - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Tender Branson]

Virginia has a strong trend away from Republicans in presidential elections, towards the Democrats:

In the late 1980s, Virginia was a solid deeply conservative Republican state, with Navy and military bases, voting far to the right of the US as a whole. It voted 13% to the right of the US. Bush won it by 21%, but the US by 8% in 1988.

Then it became slowly more Democratic, with educated government workers and others moving there.

2004 was the last time it voted Republican. 2008 was the first time it voted Democratic, but still 1.5% to the right of the US as a whole.

In 2012, it voted more Democratic than the US for the first time, being 6% Democratic, but Obama won nationally by 4%.

This trend increased in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Despite Trump winning by 1.5% nationally in 2024, Virginia voted D by 6%. Meaning it voted 7.5% more Democratic than the US.

 

[Tender Branson]

While Republican governor Glenn Youngkin is relatively popular in this Democratic state of Virginia (he has 55% approval and 40% disapproval), this cannot save Republicans the governor post this year.

Trump is simply too unpopular in the state with his DOGE government and job cuts in the DC suburbs of Virginia.

The Republicans will get punished heavily.

Spanberger should win by double digits, as polls predict.

 

[Phys251]

Virginia has a strong trend away from Republicans in presidential elections, towards the Democrats:

In the late 1980s, Virginia was a solid deeply conservative Republican state, with Navy and military bases, voting far to the right of the US as a whole. It voted 13% to the right of the US. Bush won it by 21%, but the US by 8% in 1988.

Then it became slowly more Democratic, with educated government workers and others moving there.

2004 was the last time it voted Republican. 2008 was the first time it voted Democratic, but still 1.5% to the right of the US as a whole.

In 2012, it voted more Democratic than the US for the first time, being 6% Democratic, but Obama won nationally by 4%.

This trend increased in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Despite Trump winning by 1.5% nationally in 2024, Virginia voted D by 6%. Meaning it voted 7.5% more Democratic than the US.

Virginia has a long tradition of voting against the party in the White House. There haven't been many recent exceptions, to my knowledge.

 

[Tender Branson]

Virginia has a long tradition of voting against the party in the White House. There haven't been many recent exceptions, to my knowledge.

In the past 40 years for Governor, VA has always voted for the party that was not the incumbent President's party.

The only exception was 2013 (Obama President, Terry McAuliffe elected governor).

But Obama won Virginia by 4% in 2012 and McAuliffe won in 2013 by just 2.5% ... so even in this election, Virginia voters punished the incumbent president party a little.

 

[Tender Branson]

I always read "Spankberger" btw ...

 

[Safiel]

I live just south of the Virginia State line. I would vote D in this particular election, but it wouldn't really matter.

Republicans will likely get crushed across the board in Virginia in November.

I predict Democrats will sweep the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General races and perhaps gain a seat or two in the State House, which they currently control with a one seat majority.

 

[NuffSaid]

Sears has the foul stench of both Youngkin and Trump on her.
Spanberger is popular and should win in what will probably be not a real close race.

 

[pinqy]

Sears' support for DOGE automatically loses her the votes in Arlington and Fairfax counties, where the Federal government is the number on employer. Loudon and Prince William counties also have large numbers of federal workers and government contractors. Without those four, the rest of the commonwealth is lost.