US population grows by 1 million in 6 months, reaches 336 million tomorrow. (1 Viewer)

[Tender Branson]

US population growth is picking up speed, after the Covid-years.

It is now growing by 2 millions per year again, or by 0.6% in relative terms.

0.6 million is because there were more births than deaths, and an additional 1.4 million is because more legal immigrants came than people who left the US.

These Census Bureau numbers only take into account legal immigration, not illegal immigration (which cannot really be estimated).

January 1, 2024: 335,893,238

Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day

As the nation prepares to ring in the new year, the U.S. Census Bureau today projected the U.S. population will be 335,893,238 at midnight EST, on Jan. 1, 2024.

www.census.gov

July 1, 2023: 334,914,895

U.S. Population Trends Return to Pre-Pandemic Norms as More States Gain Population

Population trends are returning to pre-pandemic norms as the number of deaths decreased last year and migration reverted to patterns not seen since before 2020.

www.census.gov

 

[Tender Branson]

2 million is legal population growth.

It is possible that several hundred thousand people sneak across the Mexico border illegally.

So, maybe +2.5 millions per year ?

 

[Tender Branson]

The fastest growing states by sheer numbers are Texas and Florida, who grew by 500.000 and 370.000.

But South Carolina had the largest percentage growth at +1.7%, or almost +100.000 people.

Generally, sunbelt states in the warm South are winning a lot of new residents, while colder (North-East, Midwest) states are losing people. Also states with high living costs (California), drug problems (Oregon) and economically depressed Republican states (West Virginia, Louisiana) are seeing big losses of people.

 

[Tender Branson]

Florida (because so many go there for retirement) has a very old population.

And therefore not many births, but a lot of deaths.

It was one of 17 states last year that had much more deaths than births.

But despite this, there were still 400.000 more immigrants than people who left.

Florida is very popular with domestic migrants (= US citizens from other states) and international migrants (= legal Green Card recipients).

This is the case with Texas too, just that Texas also has a lot more births than deaths, unlike Florida.

California also has a lot more births than deaths, but has a significant outmigration of domestic citizens, which cannot fully be compensated by immigration from abroad.

 

[Tender Branson]

Here you can see how the Southern states are the biggest gainers of new residents:

Louisiana and Mississippi are not so popular destinations.

The Great Lakes / Rustbelt states are also seeing some growth again ... because death rates there are down and even some international migrants are moving there.

 

[Rexedgar]

Shit must be boring in Õsterreich.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

No wonder traffic sucks.

 

[pinqy]

2 million is legal population growth.

It is possible that several hundred thousand people sneak across the Mexico border illegally.

So, maybe +2.5 millions per year ?

Sneaking across the border from Mexico accounts for maybe half of illegal immigration (Visa overstays account for at least as many). Now, I haven’t delved into the linked Census reports, but since the Census does not ask about citizenship or immigration status in any of their surveys (that I’m aware of, though country of birth is asked) but many illegal immigrants avoid Census surveys, at least some, but not all, illegal immigration is captured in population estimates.

 

[MamboDervish]

Here you can see how the Southern states are the biggest gainers of new residents:

Louisiana and Mississippi are not so popular destinations.

The Great Lakes / Rustbelt states are also seeing some growth again ... because death rates there are down and even some international migrants are moving there.

Funny how the greatest growth seems to be in some of the places that are outlawing abortion. I guess they think they need more people.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?

 

[Tender Branson]

Sneaking across the border from Mexico accounts for maybe half of illegal immigration (Visa overstays account for at least as many). Now, I haven’t delved into the linked Census reports, but since the Census does not ask about citizenship or immigration status in any of their surveys (that I’m aware of, though country of birth is asked) but many illegal immigrants avoid Census surveys, at least some, but not all, illegal immigration is captured in population estimates.

The annual Census Bureau estimates are not a survey.

They use the 2020 Census data (which was a survey) as a base, then add births from then, minus deaths, plus legal immigration from other countries via administrative and tax data and subtract emigration from the US to abroad using administrative and tax data.

 

[Tender Branson]

Funny how the greatest growth seems to be in some of the places that are outlawing abortion. I guess they think they need more people.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?

I think abortion plays no role. Women in anti-abortion states still get abortion pills or could travel to other states to get an abortion. Birth numbers have not changed much since bans were enacted, compared to abortion states.

It is more the good weather in Southern states that is the main reason why people retire there/move there.

 

[Atreus21]

It is more the good weather in Southern states that is the main reason why people retire there/move there.

Californians do not move to Southern states because of better weather.

 

[ralfy]

Also, the country probably has to deal with population aging, together with many other industrialized countries, which is why they are relying on people from developing countries.

 

[Bodi]

@Tender Branson
You sure know a lot about what is happening in the USA. Can you tell us about what is happening in Moldovenia, or wherever it is that you are from?

 

[Tender Branson]

Californians do not move to Southern states because of better weather.

I have explained this above:

CA has a relatively young population with many more births than deaths and a healthy international immigrant surplus. But a lot of American citizens in CA are moving to other states, which is why the state is stagnant in population. CA once grew heavily too in the 1970s to 2000s, but not any longer, because the Silicon Valley tech bubble increased living standards in the state which a lot of low-income Americans cannot handle anymore.

 

[Tender Branson]

@Tender Branson
You sure know a lot about what is happening in the USA. Can you tell us about what is happening in Moldovenia, or wherever it is that you are from?

I am from Austria, not Moldova.

 

[Bodi]

I am from Austria, not Moldova.

that is near Lusitania?

 

[Michael Cole]

The annual Census Bureau estimates are not a survey.

They use the 2020 Census data (which was a survey) as a base, then add births from then, minus deaths, plus legal immigration from other countries via administrative and tax data and subtract emigration from the US to abroad using administrative and tax data.

Census numbers are always under. Everyone doesn't answer the census, and every illegal immigrant doesn't announce his arrival.

This site uses UN methodology, and it seems to make up for an underestimated count.

Current World Population: 8,005,176,000

worldpopulationreview.com

 

[Tender Branson]

Census numbers are always under. Everyone doesn't answer the census, and every illegal immigrant doesn't announce his arrival.

This site uses UN methodology, and it seems to make up for an underestimated count.

Current World Population: 8,005,176,000

worldpopulationreview.com

True.

In countries with a traditional paper/online census, not everyone is filling it out - which leads to underreporting.

In my country, no traditional paper/online censuses are done anymore.

Mostly, because they are much more expensive than the new register-based ones and also because they are much more practical and reliable. Every person in Austria is at least in one register somewhere, otherwise you cannot get an apartment/a job/healthcare/welfare/school/car etc.

So, if a person is in at least one register, on top of the central population register (which is mandatory here), ypu can do a register-based census ... without contacting 99.5% of the people in the country to fill out questionnaires. People only need to do that 1 time and that's it. If people get born, they are entered into the CPR. When they die, they get removed. The same with in and out-migration or between cities/states.

With this, authorities can do a monthly census, or annual. Not a costly one every 10 years.

 

[Michael Cole]

Here's a sortable chart listing US cities and growth. It's a bit unwieldy as they list 300 municipalities with populations over 100,000. Many of the cities listed are suburbs of larger cities, large twin cities, cluster cities and small cities which are centers for agriculture. Without knowing the location of each city, it's easy to misunderstand the data. The map above the chart places the cities geographically, but it's unwieldy as well.

Anyway, what I like about the chart is the density field. If you sort by density, high to low, 47 out of the top 50 most densely populated cities have seen a net loss in population. The reverse, sort low to high, is mixed, but by a large margin, most of these cities are growing.

People are fleeing the crowded urban grind for mid-size and smaller cities. Looks like 5,000 per sq. mile is when people start to leave.

Largest US Cities by Population 2025

worldpopulationreview.com

 

[Atreus21]

I have explained this above:

CA has a relatively young population with many more births than deaths and a healthy international immigrant surplus. But a lot of American citizens in CA are moving to other states, which is why the state is stagnant in population. CA once grew heavily too in the 1970s to 2000s, but not any longer, because the Silicon Valley tech bubble increased living standards in the state which a lot of low-income Americans cannot handle anymore.

Fine, i didn't say CA residents aren't leaving. I said weather can't possibly be their motivation if theyre moving to the southern US, of all places.

Down here you don't breathe the air. You chew it and swallow it. At least in the summer.

 

[Michael Cole]

Fine, i didn't say CA residents aren't leaving. I said weather can't possibly be their motivation if theyre moving to the southern US, of all places.

Down here you don't breathe the air. You chew it and swallow it. At least in the summer.

I don't do humidity. The worst I've been in was Houma, LA. Five seconds after walking outside I needed another shower. And it was only 80 degrees. It's more comfortable here when it's 100.

 

[Atreus21]

I don't do humidity. The worst I've been in was Houma, LA. Five seconds after walking outside I needed another shower. And it was only 80 degrees. It's more comfortable here when it's 100.

New Orleans native. Still live in the GNO area. I spent a few summers in NM with the boy scouts, and 104 there felt like 80 back home.

Plus, in New Mexico, sweat actually works. It freaking evaporates. At home, it just makes you smell bad.

I wouldn't stay here but I've developed an affection for it. And I like bitching about the weather.