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Under Trump, the US Has Become a Leading Source of Global Instability
The country is now a known unknown, increasing the risk of crises from the Middle East to East Asia to Central America, a new survey suggests.
Perhaps Trumps greatest contribution to international instability is his public love-affairs with dictators and military expansionists. Beyond no new wars (although Trump has not "brought our US troops home" as he promised), Trump has not had any successes in US foreign policy. Continued North Korean ballistic missile tests; Iran once again has the nuclear enrichment centrifuge-cascades operating; Russian military expansionism in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; the Chinese South China Sea military buildup, Hong Kong repressions, and Chinese Uighur persecution camps; the likely reconstitution of ISIS; failed talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan; Cuban sonic attacks on US diplomatic personnel; giving the green-light to Erdogan to attack our Syrian Kurdish allies; facilitating the war in Yemen with continued arms sales to protagonist Saudi Arabia; Jared Kushner's heavy-handed Israel-Palestine peace initiative falling apart; and the US being the only country in the world not in the global-warming Paris Accord. A performance record of unrivaled and endless failure.
The country is now a known unknown, increasing the risk of crises from the Middle East to East Asia to Central America, a new survey suggests.

12/17/19
The end of the year brings myriad rankings: the best books, movies, and so on. In Washington, D.C., the lists tend to be of a more … sobering variety. For years, the Council on Foreign Relations has asked hundreds of U.S. government officials and foreign-policy experts to rate the potential security crises that could most threaten the United States in the coming year. Typically the respondents have focused on the world’s hot spots. More top of mind this year, it seems, was the destabilizing force at home. Yes, there is “rising anxiety about the state of the world,” Paul Stares, who oversees CFR’s annual poll, told me. And that anxiety, he added, “probably has a lot to do with the policies of the Trump administration,” and the “turbulence” and “instability” it has created around the globe. Stares noted that the forthcoming survey, conducted in November, yielded more scenarios in the highest category of risk than in any of the previous 11 years. For example, Trump’s precipitous (and now semi-reversed) military withdrawalfrom Syria and America’s Kurdish partners in the fight against the Islamic State there, along with his on-again, off-again peace talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan, likely contributed to respondents’ worries about escalating violence among warring factions in Syria and in Afghanistan. The president, for example, has downplayed the threat of foreign election interference, jeopardized the fight against ISIS with his troop pullout from Syria, raised tensions with China about trade that could spill over into other domains, and cast doubt on his commitment to U.S. allies that has emboldened adversaries such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, who hope to exploit “the diminished presence and engagement of the United States.”
In a separate forthcoming CFR report, Stares found that Trump has in the first three years of his presidency already weathered 14 foreign-policy crises (defined as an external event that triggers high-level deliberations about using the U.S. military), just one shy of the average since 1989 for a four-year presidential term. These have included North Korean nuclear and long-range missile tests, Syrian chemical-weapons attacks, Iranian military aggression, and skirmishes between the nuclear-armed states of India and Pakistan. Within their first term, George H. W. Bush had Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait; Bill Clinton, the Yugoslav wars; George W. Bush, the 9/11 terrorist attacks; and Barack Obama, the Arab Spring and its ugly aftermath. Trump hasn’t confronted a crisis that poses “an obvious threat to U.S. interests” and “would require a major deployment of U.S. forces, particularly in a new part of the world,” Stares told me. But if this year’s survey results are any guide, that test could yet come.
Perhaps Trumps greatest contribution to international instability is his public love-affairs with dictators and military expansionists. Beyond no new wars (although Trump has not "brought our US troops home" as he promised), Trump has not had any successes in US foreign policy. Continued North Korean ballistic missile tests; Iran once again has the nuclear enrichment centrifuge-cascades operating; Russian military expansionism in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; the Chinese South China Sea military buildup, Hong Kong repressions, and Chinese Uighur persecution camps; the likely reconstitution of ISIS; failed talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan; Cuban sonic attacks on US diplomatic personnel; giving the green-light to Erdogan to attack our Syrian Kurdish allies; facilitating the war in Yemen with continued arms sales to protagonist Saudi Arabia; Jared Kushner's heavy-handed Israel-Palestine peace initiative falling apart; and the US being the only country in the world not in the global-warming Paris Accord. A performance record of unrivaled and endless failure.