Uncertain future as Covid-19 infection rate sets global records

[JacksinPA]

Uncertain future as Covid-19 infection rate sets global records | South China Morning Post

Experts reluctant to predict the course of the pandemic as some countries ease lockdowns and Beijing suffers new outbreak

What happens next will depend on response, but without vaccine it may be years before virus runs its course

Six months into the Covid-19 pandemic and the good news is a number of countries are easing lockdown measures, allowing a semblance of what was normal life to return. The bad news is global infection numbers are surging.

The number of newly infected people set records on multiple days in June, according to data from Johns Hopkins University in the US. The World Health Organisation issued a telling statistic of its own, noting that 85,000 cases were reported in the first two months of the outbreak; in the past two months, it was 6 million. The WHO’s grim figures coincided with a new flare-up of the disease in Beijing.
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China, where the coronavirus was first identified at the end of last year, had earlier locked down a region of 60 million people and shut its borders to foreigners to control the disease. Even after those stringent measures, the virus surfaced again in the capital.

The key point in this article is: without vaccine it may be years before virus runs its course. And there has never been a successful vaccine for a coronavirus (MERS, SARS, COVID-19). This is why the total death number may reach above 30 million if this keeps on for years in multiple waves.

 

[Mongidig]

fearmongering

 

[JacksinPA]

fearmongering

Reality

 

[Mongidig]

Reality

30 million dead? In what? A hundred years?

 

[ElChupacabra]

fearmongering

That depends if you're inclined to be fearful or face the new challenges brought on by this disease. I'm sure plenty of business people are following everything closely so they can adapt to what could be different consumer behavior.

 

[Mr Person]

fearmongering

Defensive derping.


This disease is bad. It is going to kill a whole lot more people. It did not have to be this way.

 

[George50]

30 million dead? In what? A hundred years?

That’s a reasonable estimate of the deaths that would occur worldwide for the planet to achieve herd immunity naturally.

8 billion x .65 (herd immunity %) x .006 (.6% death rate) =
31,200,000.

It would not take 100 years. Hopefully, we are lucky and find a vaccine that works a very high percentage of the time and people actually get vaccinated.


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[George50]

The article mentions a new outbreak in China.

When China, South Korea, Japan and many others have a “new outbreak” that gets in the headlines it’s always less than 100 new cases in a day. When this happens, they freak out and take care of it so it doesn’t spread and get out of control.

When the US has 33,000 new cases in a day, the President says don’t worry it’s dying out.

If it weren’t so sad it would be funny.


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[Mongidig]

Defensive derping.


This disease is bad. It is going to kill a whole lot more people. It did not have to be this way.

If it didn't have to be this way then that implies that things can be better in the future. There are only so many vulnerable people this thing can get to. Many people getting it now are not going to die. Many are not going to have symptoms. Lessons are going to be learned. Saying that 30 million people might be killed is absolute fearmongering. Cases may be going up but deaths are going down.

 

[George50]

If it didn't have to be this way then that implies that things can be better in the future. There are only so many vulnerable people this thing can get to. Many people getting it now are not going to die. Many are not going to have symptoms. Lessons are going to be learned. Saying that 30 million people might be killed is absolute fearmongering. Cases may be going up but deaths are going down.

Yes many who get it will not die. In fact the equation above that shows 31.2 million dying assumes 99.4% will not die that’s certainly many!

Why do you think 30 million people dying worldwide is fearmongering? It’s just the math needed to get to natural herd immunity. Many even believe that herd immunity is the way to go.

Now again if there is an effective vaccine then immunity is achieved via that route or if there is a cure then that would also save us. We all certainly hope that is what is going to happen but we don’t know for sure. Otherwise naturally achieved herd immunity is where the world could eventually go.

There are some countries like China, South Korea and Japan who have the means and the will to slow the virus to an absolute crawl. As long as their will holds out they will have few cases and deaths.

Then there are countries like the US who certainly have the means but at least for now not the will to control the virus. We won’t even do simple, easy, cheap things like wearing masks. You mention that lessons are going to be learned. Actually lessons have already been learned. The successful countries have already learned and implemented them (scientists learned them long ago). How long is it going to take the US to learn the lessons given that they are staring us right in the face?

Unfortunately there are many 3rd world countries who do not even have the means to control the virus. Unless they have outside help they will be the most at risk.

Yes deaths are going down in the US but remember we slowed the virus down with the lockdowns so naturally the deaths are down now. The problem is that while the deaths are not going up yet the hospitalizations are going up which means the deaths will go up again. After cases go up, it takes a while for people to get sick enough to make hospitalizations go up and a while longer for people to start dying. We just aren’t to the point yet where the deaths are going up again.

Back to herd immunity:

Approximately 8 billion people worldwide. That’s a fact.

65% of people need to be infected to achieve herd immunity. There is little dispute on the 60-70% number although some would put the number higher.

The death rate of 0.6% could be off but that rate is certainly not on the high end of estimates and it could be higher in countries with poor medical facilities.

In order to dispute the herd immunity number you would need to challenge one of the factors or the equation. Do you believe one of the factors is incorrect?


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