Ukraine signs peace deal with pro-Russian rebels

[Fallenangel]

A Ukrainian gov. 19.9.14 situation map.

Ukraine signs peace deal with pro-Russian rebels - Telegraph

Kiev and separatists agree memorandum on a peace plan for the conflict in the east of the country
"Negotiators in Ukrainian peace talks agreed early Saturday to create a buffer zone to separate government troops and pro-Russian militants and withdraw heavy weapons and foreign fighters in order to ensure a stable truce in eastern Ukraine.
The deal reached by representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the Moscow-backed rebels and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe marks an effort to add substance to a cease-fire agreement that was signed on Sept. 5 but has been frequently broken by clashes..."

Hopefully this needless war would end as soon as possible.

Fallen.

 

[MMC]

Mornin FA. :2wave: Well it is a step forward......did they say when this buffer zone would be implemented?

 

[PoS]

I have a distinct feeling this is only a temporary lull. Both sides are just making time in order to strengthen their respective troops. Ukraine wants those territories back and the Russian rebels (backed by Russia) want full independence.

 

[Fallenangel]

Mornin FA. :2wave: Well it is a step forward......did they say when this buffer zone would be implemented?

Sorry, dunno.

I'm still stuck with only a limited internet connection so I can't spend a lot of time posting or making research...

Fallen.

 

[Cryptic]

I have a distinct feeling this is only a temporary lull. Both sides are just making time in order to strengthen their respective troops. Ukraine wants those territories back and the Russian rebels (backed by Russia) want full independence.

I dont think this lull is temporary. Russia has the strength to annex both provinces in their entirerity, or to even force Ukraine into complete anchluss with Russia. I think that total anchluss was Putin's goal rather than the annexation of two poorer provinces.

But.... Putin's anchluss goal was probably dependent on the Ukrainian military completely collapsing after direct Russian intervention.

The Ukrainian military, however, though it was battered, has continued to resist. This resistance, coupled with western sanctions and probably weapons would make Putin's goal of forced anchluss with Ukraine too expensive in lives and money.

The sanctions are hurting Russia and I dont think Putin is going to continue the war to annex certain districts of two poor provinces. Instead, he is going to wait a while so as not to give the impression that actions were forced on him, then withdraw Russian regulars, material, mercenaries and volunteer fighters. Those local rebels who still want to fight are then going to be on their own.

 

[MMC]

Sorry, dunno.

I'm still stuck with only a limited internet connection so I can't spend a lot of time posting or making research...

Fallen.

Alright FA.....I will keep an eye out. As usual ya can check what we have up around here for any info while you are on. Hope all is well with you and you start getting some more time. Its good seeing you back around here.

 

[MrFirst]

I have a distinct feeling this is only a temporary lull. Both sides are just making time in order to strengthen their respective troops. Ukraine wants those territories back and the Russian rebels (backed by Russia) want full independence.

Exactly.

Poroshenko appointed new elections for Rada in October 26. It's important that several parties refused to take part in the elections. Party of regions, also Socialist party and several small parties. In general these parties made sufficient part of Ukrainian politics. And, like Party of Regions, their electorate is mostly in the south-east that is captured by the war now. Party of Regions was the biggest party of the country which included many Ukrainian state bureaucrats - this is the whole class of citizens involved in state ruling. Now they are under pressure, as Rada issued the law on "lustration" which put every of them in danger to get under politically motivated prosecution. The Communist party said it will take part in elections, but the current regime many times tried to ban this party by law.

So, all political forces that stand for any peace in this or that form, are under pressure and do not have big chances to win. Natural political process is broken. Part of nation is thrown out of national policy.

The main participants are the party of Yulia Timoshenko, party of Yatsenyuk, and Right Sector. All these parties stand for ultimate victory. They will win, of course. Elections, not the war. And such political environment doesn't give many chances for peace.

 

[MrFirst]

Ukrainian TV channel - reportage from the future.

Sunday Peace Marches in Russia: Thousands of Russians to march in Moscow on 21 September

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI7SDN8lrfc#t=42

For those who doesn't know - Sunday in Moscow started 27 minutes ago.

 

[PoS]

I dont think this lull is temporary. Russia has the strength to annex both provinces in their entirerity, or to even force Ukraine into complete anchluss with Russia. I think that total anchluss was Putin's goal rather than the annexation of two poorer provinces.

But.... Putin's anchluss goal was probably dependent on the Ukrainian military completely collapsing after direct Russian intervention.

The Ukrainian military, however, though it was battered, has continued to resist. This resistance, coupled with western sanctions and probably weapons would make Putin's goal of forced anchluss with Ukraine too expensive in lives and money.

The sanctions are hurting Russia and I dont think Putin is going to continue the war to annex certain districts of two poor provinces. Instead, he is going to wait a while so as not to give the impression that actions were forced on him, then withdraw Russian regulars, material, mercenaries and volunteer fighters. Those local rebels who still want to fight are then going to be on their own.

I dont think sanctions will deter Putin, if he can feel that the west will not intervene he will take Ukraine. If he backs away from this fight he will be toppled from office in Russia I bet- he has way too much at stake.

 

[MrFirst]

The well-known analyst Igor Berkut tells two ideas.

Игорь Беркут. Новороссия: Вперёд к Победе! 13.09.2014 [Рассвет ТВ] - YouTube

First, he says Ukrainian army is preparing for autumn advance against Donbas. As he is the former military and he has some links among Ukrainian militaries, his words are worth to trust.

Second, he says Donbas militia needs to expand its territory, because without that it cannot survive. After a while Ukrainians would increase their military power, enhance and improve trainings, quality and quantity of their armed forces and defeat Donbass. But beyond the territory under militia's control in such cities like Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk there is a vast base for mobilization for militia. These are regions with population that sympathizes to Donbas, you may call it pro-Russian or whatever. Taking more cities and districts the militia will get more new thousands of supporters and fighters.

If militia takes the neighbouring regions, the Ukrainian army which now exceeds the militia by quantity, will lose its last advantage.

 

[Cryptic]

I dont think sanctions will deter Putin, if he can feel that the west will not intervene he will take Ukraine. If he backs away from this fight he will be toppled from office in Russia I bet- he has way too much at stake.

I think what will deter Putin is a combination of sanctions and higher than expected Ukrainian resistance. He can cope with either one, but not both.