David_N
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The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the second quarter after a weaker start to the year than previously estimated as companies slimmed down inventories and remained wary of investing amid shaky global demand.
Gross domestic product rose at a 1.2 percent annualized rate after a 0.8 percent advance the prior quarter, Commerce Department figures showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 2.5 percent second-quarter increase.
Well, it looks like the fed won't be raising rates anytime soon. I know that the deficit hawks and balanced budget lunatics will continue to prevent much needed growth.
U.S. Economy Grew Less-Than-Forecast 1.2% in Second Quarter - Bloomberg
Keynes would groan to hear you.
Economy Grew Less Than Forecast — 1.2% in Second Quarter
initial report at 2.6%?
insult-free mmi post #10 (new series)
You're going to have to explain that to me
BEA has been struggling in recent years at getting accurate advance estimates. For the past three years, they've been underestimating Q1s and overestimating Q2s. Perhaps they've overcorrected for that. I'd recommend waiting until the last week of August for a revision.
The major component holding back growth in the past quarter was a sharp decline in private inventory investment. Inventory growth has now declined for five consecutive quarters, actually becoming negative Q2.
View attachment 67205024
Doesn't this mean that GDP has been diminished over the past fifteen months by decisions to slow production and thereby deplete inventories? If consumer spending and business spending for facilities and equipment can do OK over the next eighteen moths or so,
shouldn't we reasonably expect production to increase to replenish inventories?
insult-free mmi post #9 (new series)
Agree, we should see an inventory build in Q3 going into the holiday season.
Hope so. The forecasts don't look all that inspiring though.
>>We seem to be a 2% growth economy for the last few years.
Averaged 1.76% under both Bush43 and Obummer. We seem to be in a better position now than we were in 2007.
Critics of the Negro point to the big increase in debt, but that was caused by a marked shortfall in revenues for a few years following the 2008 collapse. Since 2009, real spending has declined by I think eight percent. Congress has authorised one percent less than the Barry has requested, and through tight management under his guidance, actual outlays have been reduced by a further five percent.
insult-free mmi post #22 (new series)
Ah yes, you're still around. I'm sure keynes was all for aggressive reduction of deficits in periods of slow growth..
Nope. He was not an idiot after all. We are now dealing with the hangover from the Greenspan/Clinton party, when the deficit problems were programmed into the economy for their followers. But yes, we should have done more in the last few years to normalize the budget, trade merchandise balance and debt.
Such as????
There are a lot of things one could have thought about doing to improve our efficiency as a society, fairness and its wealth as an economy.
We should certainly have been moving government out of all activities that are not economic public goods. We should have looked into replacing minimum wage, Social Security, means tested welfare etc, etc with a minimum income or negative tax regimen.
When the economy was looking up, rates could have been raised to prevent the double bubble we now face and government spending should have been reduced considerably.
In foreign policy we should have been working ourselves to the bone trying to get a global security regime mandated by the UN membership that stands a chance of deflecting the nearly inevitable major war we are headed for. This alone would have, if successful enabled a major reduction of government costs.
Well, it looks like the fed won't be raising rates anytime soon. I know that the deficit hawks and balanced budget lunatics will continue to prevent much needed growth.
U.S. Economy Grew Less-Than-Forecast 1.2% in Second Quarter - Bloomberg
“Businesses have taken a cautious approach toward investment for several years now, so this is nothing new,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said after orders for durable goods made in the US dropped by 4% in June. “But I think, if anything, the situation is likely to get worse rather than better in the near term, as many firms that have flexibility in the timing of their investment decisions are likely to sit on their hands until after the election.”
1) The minimum wage and S.S. have existed for over 70 years, without any negative ramifications on the economy. Replacing them for the sake of seeming busy doesn't make much sense.
2) This would have led to another recession; likely worse than the great recession when we consider the levels of deficit spending as a percentage of aggregate output.
And it would have led to a major reduction in U.S. industrial production. You can't just slash the revenues of a multi-billion dollar industry and expect the rest of the economy, which is more interconnected than ever before, to go off unharmed.
3) Really, you just propose cutting spending for the sake of cutting spending, with the naive opinion that it will lead to levels of growth last seen when the U.S. was industrializing and rebuilding the rest of the developed world.
Well, it looks like the fed won't be raising rates anytime soon. I know that the deficit hawks and balanced budget lunatics will continue to prevent much needed growth.
U.S. Economy Grew Less-Than-Forecast 1.2% in Second Quarter - Bloomberg
I blame Trump for this. Consumer spending was up considerably while business cut back drastically. They are too afraid to do anything until they are sure Trump is going to lose. Trump is scaring business to death.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/29/us-economy-gdp-growth-second-quarter
So anyone that wants a balanced budget is insane?
:lamo :roll:
A little advice, making nonsensical statements does not further your cause or your reputation.
Btw, I guarantee you that (barring an inflation spike - unlikely with a collapsing money velocity) the Fed will have negative rates before it gets them back to even 1%.
When economic growth is pitiful and spending is down, why the hell would anyone want to balance the budget and put more stress on the private sector?So anyone that wants a balanced budget is insane?
That's pretty laughable since businesses like his business tax plan the most.
Many economists say Donald Trump’s proposals — from big import tariffs to mass deportations — would hurt the very demographic that supports him in the greatest numbers: less educated voters struggling in a tepid U.S. economy.
If Trump policies actually went into effect, these economists say, prices for goods lower-income Americans depend on could soar and a depleted low-end labor force could trigger a major downturn.
Taxes are the least of their worries.....
Who do businesses listen too? Economists.
Read more: Donald Trump 2016 economic agenda: Economists savage Trump's economic agenda - POLITICO
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
No, most businesses aren't pining for the words of economists to tell them what they should think. they have a pretty good idea on their own.
However, as usual, that article titles itself as something scathing against trump but there are several positives in there as well.
No, most businesses aren't pining for the words of economists to tell them what they should think. they have a pretty good idea on their own.
whoa, wasn't the initial report at 2.6%? They had to revise it down to less than half of that? WTF, how do they get it so wrong?
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