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U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit

anatta

anatta

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UE came down a bit as well.. all good
  • Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
  • President Donald Trump responded to the GDP report with a fresh demand for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
“The anti Trump story has been that we’re going to have a recession or a depression because of the tariffs, which are going to jack up prices and cause consumers to run for the exits” Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council director, said on CNBC. “In fact, every single thing about this GDP release has shown strength.”

Trump has been complaining about high mortgage rates, which have held back the housing market. Residential investment fell 4.6% in Q2.

At the same time, GDP posted its strong rise without help from government spending. Federal outlays declined 3.7%, coming off a 4.6% drop in the first quarter.
State and local government spending rose 3%.
 
Nice to hear. Tariffs go into effect Friday. Hopefully it doesn’t tear this all down. I for one am not accepting of this stealth tax increase. Please TACO again.
 
More reasons for our American hating liberal friends to sob into their blankets. The US economy is chugging along and contrary to our Democrat friends who were almost universally predicting a recession US growth remains resilient.

Too bad for the board liberal I strongly advised to close their short SPXU and SQQQ positions and others who were betting against our country.



Key Points
  • Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
Click to expand...
 
Given the interest rates, the reduction in government spending this is truly an impressive outcome.

Of course the naysayers and "experts" were wrong again.
 
anatta said:
UE came down a bit as well.. all good
  • Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
  • President Donald Trump responded to the GDP report with a fresh demand for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
“The anti Trump story has been that we’re going to have a recession or a depression because of the tariffs, which are going to jack up prices and cause consumers to run for the exits” Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council director, said on CNBC. “In fact, every single thing about this GDP release has shown strength.”

Trump has been complaining about high mortgage rates, which have held back the housing market. Residential investment fell 4.6% in Q2.

At the same time, GDP posted its strong rise without help from government spending. Federal outlays declined 3.7%, coming off a 4.6% drop in the first quarter.
State and local government spending rose 3%.
Click to expand...
Good news.

Related good new...

www.investopedia.com

Consumer Confidence Improves in July as Inflation Fears Dip

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in July came in at 97.2, an improvement of two points over the prior month as worries over tariffs subside.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
will liberals/Democrats/left admit CNN was fear mongering/lying ? I believe I said they have been all along, haven't I? and all those repeating the liberal lies ..... any admittance ? any ?





The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now projects a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter. While it’s far too early to say whether GDP will turn negative, it marks a swift downgrade from a growth forecast of 2.3% previously.


The best-case scenario over the next 12 months: Real GDP contracts by 0.2 percentage points, employment shrinks by 0.1% and inflation ticks up by 0.2 percentage points.

The worst-case: Economic activity sinks 1.3 percentage points (real GDP grew 2.4% at the end of 2024), the US economy loses 1.3 million jobs, and inflation rises by 1.3 percentage points, he noted.



Even if all of the Trump 2.0 tariffs were unwound today, the US would still lose at least 1% of GDP just from the policy uncertainty, said Kent Smetters, professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “We are projecting that GDP will eventually fall by 5% if all the tariffs are implemented.”
 
A strong economy isn't exactly an argument to lower rates. They're going to stay up for a while.
 
TangoNoCash said:
Nice to hear. Tariffs go into effect Friday. Hopefully it doesn’t tear this all down. I for one am not accepting of this stealth tax increase. Please TACO again.
Click to expand...
well we have to see how much prices increase and how much is absorbed. The trade agreements are finally happening
( Powell really needs to lower rates for the housing market - directly effected by the FED)

as to inflation: (OP)

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation metric, showed a gain of 2.1% for the quarter, just above the central bank’s 2% target. Core PCE inflation, which the Fed considers a better gauge for longer-run trends as it excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.5%. The respective numbers for the first quarter were 3.7% and 3.5%.
 
dobieg said:
More reasons for our American hating liberal friends to sob into their blankets. The US economy is chugging along and contrary to our Democrat friends who were almost universally predicting a recession US growth remains resilient.

Too bad for the board liberal I strongly advised to close their short SPXU and SQQQ positions and others who were betting against our country.



Click to expand...
So we're exporting less, and now we're starting to see the falloff in imports. Sure this trend will end well.

lol
 
anatta said:
well we have to see how much prices increase and how much is absorbed. The trade agreements are finally happening
( Powell really need s to lower rates for the housing market - directly effected by the FED)

as to inflation: (OP)

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation metric, showed a gain of 2.1% for the quarter, just above the central bank’s 2% target. Core PCE inflation, which the Fed considers a better gauge for longer-run trends as it excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.5%. The respective numbers for the first quarter were 3.7% and 3.5%.
Click to expand...
My belief is companies are trying to not rock the boat. Solidifying tariffs will put an end to that. That’s what I would do anyway.
 
It's fine. Historically, around 7% isn't horrible. People are adjusting.

anatta said:
It's the housing market that desperately needs a rate cut
Click to expand...
 
anatta said:
UE came down a bit as well.. all good
  • Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
  • Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
  • While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
  • President Donald Trump responded to the GDP report with a fresh demand for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
“The anti Trump story has been that we’re going to have a recession or a depression because of the tariffs, which are going to jack up prices and cause consumers to run for the exits” Kevin Hassett, National Economic Council director, said on CNBC. “In fact, every single thing about this GDP release has shown strength.”

Trump has been complaining about high mortgage rates, which have held back the housing market. Residential investment fell 4.6% in Q2.

At the same time, GDP posted its strong rise without help from government spending. Federal outlays declined 3.7%, coming off a 4.6% drop in the first quarter.
State and local government spending rose 3%.
Click to expand...

You beat me to this, as I was just getting ready to hit "send" when your thread popped-up.

This is good news. But it bodes poorly for Trump getting his interest rate cuts.

Oddly enough, the markets are flat. I suspect due to losing the possibility of a rate cut.
 
This means it’s still Biden’s economy. If we’d seen a contraction the leftoids would call it Trump’s.

In all seriousness, I like positive economic news regardless of who’s president.
 
anatta said:
It's the housing market that desperately needs a rate cut
Click to expand...
Not going to happen until the chaos stabilizes and tariffs settle one way or another. Probably not helping that home builders are losing their cheap labor.
 
Chomsky said:
You beat me to this, as I was just getting ready to hit "send" when your thread popped-up.

This is good news. But it bodes poorly for Trump getting his interest rate cuts.

Oddly enough, the markets are flat. I suspect due to losing the possibility of a rate cut.
Click to expand...
I am still trying to sell my house..i had to drop the price 2 x. housing -if nothing else needs a rate cut
 
hecatmoggie said:
will liberals/Democrats/left admit CNN was fear mongering/lying ? I believe I said they have been all along, haven't I? and all those repeating the liberal lies ..... any admittance ? any ?





The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now projects a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter. While it’s far too early to say whether GDP will turn negative, it marks a swift downgrade from a growth forecast of 2.3% previously.


The best-case scenario over the next 12 months: Real GDP contracts by 0.2 percentage points, employment shrinks by 0.1% and inflation ticks up by 0.2 percentage points.

The worst-case: Economic activity sinks 1.3 percentage points (real GDP grew 2.4% at the end of 2024), the US economy loses 1.3 million jobs, and inflation rises by 1.3 percentage points, he noted.



Even if all of the Trump 2.0 tariffs were unwound today, the US would still lose at least 1% of GDP just from the policy uncertainty, said Kent Smetters, professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “We are projecting that GDP will eventually fall by 5% if all the tariffs are implemented.”
Click to expand...


This reiterates the point no one should ever listen to CNN (or Fox news and Jim Cramer) for financial advice.
 
Mycroft said:
Good news.

Related good new...

www.investopedia.com

Consumer Confidence Improves in July as Inflation Fears Dip

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in July came in at 97.2, an improvement of two points over the prior month as worries over tariffs subside.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
Click to expand...

I saw the Consumer Confidence strongly rise last month. Today's GDP report cited a rise in Consumer Spending. Consumer Confidence, increased spending, rising GDP go hand-in-hand.
 
anatta said:
I am still trying to sell my house..i had to drop the price 2 x. housing -if nothing else needs a rate cut
Click to expand...

What market are you located in?

I just paid over list for a place in Virginia last month. And I'm cheap and never pay list price.
 
Ikari said:
So we're exporting less, and now we're starting to see the falloff in imports. Sure this trend will end well.

lol
Click to expand...

That is a fair point.

What I suspect is today's number is a rebound jump from last quarter's reaction to the tariffs, where there was a huge push to bring-in inventory to beat the tariffs, not realize Trump's proclivity to TACO.
 
Chomsky said:
That is a fair point.

What I suspect is today's number is a rebound jump from last quarter's reaction to the tariffs, where there was a huge push to bring-in inventory to beat the tariffs, not realize Trump's proclivity to TACO.
Click to expand...
Yeah, there was. I think as we get into Q4, we'll start to see the aggregate effects of Trump's destabilizing global trade and how it's going to impact the US economy, markets, and consumer prices.
 
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