Trump's Poll Numbers Don't Matter

[Jack Hays]

Nate Silver at 538 thinks Trump's big poll numbers are not important and he's not likely to be the Republican nominee. He usually knows what he's talking about.

2016 Election
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

By Nate Silver


Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will play into Trump’s hands, or that Republicans really might be in disarray. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high.


Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said so far has harmed his standing with Republicans, the argument goes, why should we expect him to fade later on?


One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate). . . .

 

[gavinfielder]

It's a good analysis. I'm convinced.

Although given the recent news about Trump revisiting a third-party run, I'd say he still matters quite a bit to the Republican field, whether he's in or out of it.

I do wonder if he's the type to laugh while Rome burns, because that's certainly what this situation feels like it--to my amusement.

 

[reason10]

Nate Silver at 538 thinks Trump's big poll numbers are not important and he's not likely to be the Republican nominee. He usually knows what he's talking about.

2016 Election
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

By Nate Silver


Lately, pundits and punters seem bullish on Donald Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination recently inched above 20 percent for the first time at the betting market Betfair. Perhaps the conventional wisdom assumes that the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris will play into Trump’s hands, or that Republicans really might be in disarray. If so, I can see where the case for Trump is coming from, although I’d still say a 20 percent chance is substantially too high.


Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said so far has harmed his standing with Republicans, the argument goes, why should we expect him to fade later on?


One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate). . . .

People who say polls do not matter are ALWAYS either the losers or people who do not like the front runner.

Frankly, Trump has done something that has never been done in all of American history. He has led ALL the polls and has remained out front since he announced. He has defied ALL conventional wisdom. (Kinda like Reagan did back in 79).

Unless something happens to his health, he WILL win the nomination and he WILL be the next president. Right now he is the ONLY candidate who can defeat Hillary and her money. And I suspect he won't even have to spend that much of his own.

 

[reason10]

It's a good analysis. I'm convinced.

Although given the recent news about Trump revisiting a third-party run, I'd say he still matters quite a bit to the Republican field, whether he's in or out of it.

I do wonder if he's the type to laugh while Rome burns, because that's certainly what this situation feels like it--to my amusement.

Trump is not revisiting any kind of third party run. That's just a liberal media LIE. It's a LIE because he's still ahead in all the polls. Why would he say such things when he's about to be nominated?

The left wing media is REALLY grabbing at straws with this one.

He is going to be the Republican nominee and he's going to defeat Hillary. Already Real Clear Politics has him STOMPING her in the general Electoral College race.