Trump surges still strong

[ludin]

I thought he would have blown himself out by now, however the hurricane that trump blew into
this race with is probably stronger.

He won SC by double digits.
that is huge.

he is way out in front of both Rubio and cruz and it seems they are splitting
some voters between the two of them.

this split is going to let trump run away with it. for someone else to win
either cruz or Rubio needs to drop out.

I doubt they will so I think that split will give trump the win believe it or not.
I have a hard time saying this but I think trump is going to win the whole thing.

 

[Chomsky]

I thought he would have blown himself out by now, however the hurricane that trump blew into
this race with is probably stronger.

He won SC by double digits.
that is huge.

he is way out in front of both Rubio and cruz and it seems they are splitting
some voters between the two of them.

this split is going to let trump run away with it. for someone else to win
either cruz or Rubio needs to drop out.

I doubt they will so I think that split will give trump the win believe it or not.
I have a hard time saying this but I think trump is going to win the whole thing.

This morning on CNN, Trump came out again with a not so veiled renewed threat of an Indie run. He said the GOP are not sticking with the agreement he signed, and he claimed it's a "two-way agreement" and they are not keeping it! This was in response to questioning Trump on the groundswell of innuendo that the party elites and established are trying to nudge him out.

This is going to get interesting, I predict! :mrgreen:

 

[clownboy]

If Rubio loses Florida he no longer has any hope of being anything but a drag on everyone but Trump remaining in the race. Trump has only to come in a solid second in Texas to neuter Cruz's chance of a comeback.

 

[Chomsky]

If Rubio loses Florida he no longer has any hope of being anything but a drag on everyone but Trump remaining in the race. Trump has only to come in a solid second in Texas to neuter Cruz's chance of a comeback.

I still think Sen Rubio is the best positioned of Trumps opponents to get the nod of the GOP establishment.

But you're right, in that: "How do the GOP nominate a guy that hasn't won a state"?

 

[ludin]

I still think Sen Rubio is the best positioned of Trumps opponents to get the nod of the GOP establishment.

But you're right, in that: "How do the GOP nominate a guy that hasn't won a state"?

they won't have a choice. the only time that you could get a contested convention in which they pick Rubio or someone else
is if trump can't win the majority of delegates.

even with the super delegates I don't think Rubio can get enough of the vote to win at the convention.

 

[Tonawanda]

This morning on CNN, Trump came out again with a not so veiled renewed threat of an Indie run. He said the GOP are not sticking with the agreement he signed, and he claimed it's a "two-way agreement" and they are not keeping it! This was in response to questioning Trump on the groundswell of innuendo that the party elites and established are trying to nudge him out.

This is going to get interesting, I predict! :mrgreen:

You predict correctly. The GOP is in a vice that's closing fast. If he wins, they lose. If they push him out, he takes the ball and most of his supporters with him. As a matter of fact, if they pick someone else at a brokered convention, many of his supporter stay home in protest, and the GOP can start their concession speech now.

 

[lb_on_teh_cb]

This morning on CNN, Trump came out again with a not so veiled renewed threat of an Indie run. He said the GOP are not sticking with the agreement he signed, and he claimed it's a "two-way agreement" and they are not keeping it! This was in response to questioning Trump on the groundswell of innuendo that the party elites and established are trying to nudge him out.

This is going to get interesting, I predict! :mrgreen:

yeah but if he goes independent he wont be on every state ballot right? plus there will be a repub candidate which will split the vote with him and then they both lose to Hillary. seems like this can only happen if the GOP is so spiteful that they rather have Hillary win than Trump.

 

[Captain Adverse]

I thought he would have blown himself out by now, however the hurricane that trump blew into
this race with is probably stronger.

Why?

The more he is attacked by the "establishment," the more his supporters flock to his banner. They understand he is playing to their fears and desires, and that he will probably not be able to do as much as he promises.

But those who actually vote are fed up with BOTH parties; which is why Trump is on the rise for the Right, and Sanders (despite Democratic naysayers) is on the rise for the Left.

Neither candidate has a power base in Congress, and both will probably fail at achieving anything worthwhile as long as that condition exists.

But people need to show they are fed up. This might also be reflected in the next Congressional elections giving whichever one of these "extremes" who wins some support in Congress after all. Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, stop acting so surprised. This has been a long time stewing, and after the failure of the Obama new dream...what would anyone expect?

 

[jimbo]

I thought he would have blown himself out by now, however the hurricane that trump blew into
this race with is probably stronger.

He won SC by double digits.
that is huge.

he is way out in front of both Rubio and cruz and it seems they are splitting
some voters between the two of them.

this split is going to let trump run away with it. for someone else to win
either cruz or Rubio needs to drop out.

I doubt they will so I think that split will give trump the win believe it or not.
I have a hard time saying this but I think trump is going to win the whole thing.

IMO the assumption that if one or the other drops out their votes will automatically go to the survivor is vastly overrated. So too the assumption that if they pool their resources all the votes will remain with the pool.

For several months we have heard that Trump has a voter upside appeal that is limited. That hasn't proven to be the case.

 

[jimbo]

they won't have a choice. the only time that you could get a contested convention in which they pick Rubio or someone else
is if trump can't win the majority of delegates.

even with the super delegates I don't think Rubio can get enough of the vote to win at the convention.

As it stands now Trump has more delegate count as all the other candidates total. There is no reason to expect that gap to close in the future. So if and when the candidate counts gets to two, and assuming all former somebody else delegates will be anti Trump, he still wins.

 

[ludin]

As it stands now Trump has more delegate count as all the other candidates total. There is no reason to expect that gap to close in the future. So if and when the candidate counts gets to two, and assuming all former somebody else delegates will be anti Trump, he still wins.

yep if the current trend continues then he will sweep the nomination.
there is little the republican or GOP can do about it.

 

[Chomsky]

they won't have a choice. the only time that you could get a contested convention in which they pick Rubio or someone else
is if trump can't win the majority of delegates.

even with the super delegates I don't think Rubio can get enough of the vote to win at the convention.

Yes, but Trump does not have a majority, and in the current field it seems unlikely to me he will.

Rubio (et al) only need to keep Mr. Trump from a majority, to then force a brokered convention. After the first round of votes, which of course will fail due to the lack of a majority, the delegates are then free to vote for whomever they chose. That's where the brokering takes place, and Rubio or another non-Trump candidate may prevail. My understanding is the delegates are very much establishment types, and of course after the first round of voting, they can summarily dump Trump!

So to assure he prevails, Trump must walk into the convention with the majority of regular delegates who are bound to him for that first crucial vote; not so easy, with so large a field as currently!

 

[Chomsky]

You predict correctly. The GOP is in a vice that's closing fast. If he wins, they lose. If they push him out, he takes the ball and most of his supporters with him. As a matter of fact, if they pick someone else at a brokered convention, many of his supporter stay home in protest, and the GOP can start their concession speech now.

Thank you!

And let's not forget: If the GOP wrests the nomination away from Trump on the floor of the convention, his supporters will likely not stay home on election day! They will be voting for their candidate who declares himself an Indie at the press conference he holds immediately after stepping out of the hall, where he asks for their vote and continued support!

In short: The GOP are fudged!

 

[Chomsky]

yeah but if he goes independent he wont be on every state ballot right? plus there will be a repub candidate which will split the vote with him and then they both lose to Hillary. seems like this can only happen if the GOP is so spiteful that they rather have Hillary win than Trump.

Absolutely!

If Trump splits Indie of the GOP they both lose.

But I doubt they would go that far, and I doubt if they did that Trump would let them get away with it (he'd go Indie).

So basically, the GOP are stuck with him, as he is with them, TBH.

But they need him more. If he leaves, he's still a mega billionaire with great influence; but they lose the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and possibly the Senate! :shock:

 

[ludin]

Yes, but Trump does not have a majority, and in the current field it seems unlikely to me he will.

Rubio (et al) only need to keep Mr. Trump from a majority, to then force a brokered convention. After the first round of votes, which of course will fail due to the lack of a majority, the delegates are then free to vote for whomever they chose. That's where the brokering takes place, and Rubio or another non-Trump candidate may prevail. My understanding is the delegates are very much establishment types, and of course after the first round of voting, they can summarily dump Trump!

So to assure he prevails, Trump must walk into the convention with the majority of regular delegates who are bound to him for that first crucial vote; not so easy, with so large a field as currently!

trump needs 1237 delegates to hold the majority.
he currently has 82, however since cruz has 17 and rudio has 16.

unless something xrazy happens during super Tuesday I don't see them catching him.

 

[ludin]

Absolutely!

If Trump splits Indie of the GOP they both lose.

But I doubt they would go that far, and I doubt if they did that Trump would let them get away with it (he'd go Indie).

So basically, the GOP are stuck with him, as he is with them, TBH.

But they need him more. If he leaves, he's still a mega billionaire with great influence; but they lose the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and possibly the Senate! :shock:

trump is a business man therefore he is vindictive against those that wrong him.
he will go indy no matter what more so if the GOP goes against this so called contract.

 

[Chomsky]

trump needs 1237 delegates to hold the majority.
he currently has 82, however since cruz has 17 and rudio has 16.

unless something xrazy happens during super Tuesday I don't see them catching him.

Yes, as I said.

But the can stop him from a majority, and wrest the nomination away from him through brokerage!

 

[Chomsky]

trump is a business man therefore he is vindictive against those that wrong him.
he will go indy no matter what more so if the GOP goes against this so called contract.

Agreed, but he needs the party to win, too.

He likely can't pull a plurality of the electoral college against HRC while splitting the vote with a GOP opponent. At least I don't think he can. But he's proven us wrong before! :mrgreen:

 

[tres borrachos]

You predict correctly. The GOP is in a vice that's closing fast. If he wins, they lose. If they push him out, he takes the ball and most of his supporters with him. As a matter of fact, if they pick someone else at a brokered convention, many of his supporter stay home in protest, and the GOP can start their concession speech now.

I for one will be glad if that happens. No true Republican would vote for Donald Trump. Let them start a new 3rd party where they can sit around all day plotting how to change the history of this country and bar entrance to people on the basis of their religion, or demand that the Presidents of sovereign nations build a wall, or call everyone a "pu&&y".

 

[RAMOSS]

yeah but if he goes independent he wont be on every state ballot right? plus there will be a repub candidate which will split the vote with him and then they both lose to Hillary. seems like this can only happen if the GOP is so spiteful that they rather have Hillary win than Trump.

There has been more than one GOP establishment that specifically said 'Better a democrat than Trump'. That's like .. wow.

 

[Casper]

The GOP and the USA are Scr*wed when it comes to this election, we can all thank The Donald for that.

 

[Tonawanda]

I for one will be glad if that happens. No true Republican would vote for Donald Trump. Let them start a new 3rd party where they can sit around all day plotting how to change the history of this country and bar entrance to people on the basis of their religion, or demand that the Presidents of sovereign nations build a wall, or call everyone a "pu&&y".

We already had 7 years of someone "Fundamentally Transforming America". The last thing we want is his puppet continuing to lead the parade. If this new chosen one is the best they have to offer, perhaps the Dems are the ones that should start a 3rd party.

So, our choices in November will likely be a rude and crude hippo, or a lying deceitful ass.

Stay home if you'd like.