Three Weeks to Election Day

[Jay59]

The push the Democrats made through August and into September seems to have faded, but they are still in position to keep the Senate if not the House. However, any continuation of recent trends could make that unlikely.

That said, 538 is still calling Democrats a 2-to-1 favorite to retain control because of the likelihood of another 50/50 split. However, that is no longer the single most likely outcome Each of the possible 51/49 splits is more likely. It seems to be coming down to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada as Democrats seem to be holding on in Arizona and Republicans holding in Wisconsin.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

The Crystal Ball at UVa has only two states as tossups--Georgia and Nevada. Both are Democrat seats and an incumbent win in either assures Democrats of control assuming all other states follow their current lean. Republican-held Pennsylvania is listed as a Democrat pick-up.

2022 Senate - Sabato's Crystal Ball

To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2024 Senate races

centerforpolitics.org

RCP cites seven tossup states but their no tossup map has five going Republican including all three of the states in 538's list. That would give Republicans control with a 52-48 break.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

One common gauge is the generic ballot polls. Democrats briefly pulled ahead in September, but Republicans have surged in the last two weeks, currently +2.2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

Another thing to consider is betting markets. Nate Silver says this election is being treated like a Presidential year. He comments that his model projecting the Senate race is shifting to Republicans but betting money is shifting faster. It's worth noting the 14 October date of the article, since it predates a big shift in the generic ballot over the weekend.

Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election

For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. And the an…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Jay59]

Politico is already writing obituaries. Trends are critical in the final weeks as late-deciding voters make up their minds.

Democrats’ midterm hopes fade: ‘We peaked a little early’

Fresh polling suggests Republicans are gaining with voters, particularly women, in the final weeks of the midterm election.

www.politico.com

A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday showed likely voters inclined to vote Republican by a 49 percent to 45 percent margin. Independent women — a critical constituency for Democrats in swing states and districts — had swung sharply toward Republicans in the span of a month. “I’m wishing the election were in August,” said Matt Bennett of the center-left group Third Way. “I think we peaked a little early.”​

 

[element94]

If there wasn't such a pall of illegal activity hanging over the Republican Party, it would probably be a walk in the park for them. I will give you a point or two for that being a positive for your voter base.

 

[Perotista]

The push the Democrats made through August and into September seems to have faded, but they are still in position to keep the Senate if not the House. However, any continuation of recent trends could make that unlikely.

That said, 538 is still calling Democrats a 2-to-1 favorite to retain control because of the likelihood of another 50/50 split. However, that is no longer the single most likely outcome Each of the possible 51/49 splits is more likely. It seems to be coming down to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada as Democrats seem to be holding on in Arizona and Republicans holding in Wisconsin.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

The Crystal Ball at UVa has only two states as tossups--Georgia and Nevada. Both are Democrat seats and an incumbent win in either assures Democrats of control assuming all other states follow their current lean. Republican-held Pennsylvania is listed as a Democrat pick-up.

2022 Senate - Sabato's Crystal Ball

To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2024 Senate races

centerforpolitics.org

RCP cites seven tossup states but their no tossup map has five going Republican including all three of the states in 538's list. That would give Republicans control with a 52-48 break.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

One common gauge is the generic ballot polls. Democrats briefly pulled ahead in September, but Republicans have surged in the last two weeks, currently +2.2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

Another thing to consider is betting markets. Nate Silver says this election is being treated like a Presidential year. He comments that his model projecting the Senate race is shifting to Republicans but betting money is shifting faster. It's worth noting the 14 October date of the article, since it predates a big shift in the generic ballot over the weekend.

Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election

For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. And the an…

fivethirtyeight.com

I think Georgia will stay Democratic. That the senate boils down to 2 states, PA and NV. That PA goes to Fetterman unless some unforeseen event happens. NV in my book is 50-50. But what happens there doesn’t matter in who controls the senate if every other state fall into place.

The house, today I’m looking at a 11-13 seat gain for the Republicans. Down from 25 in July, but with the momentum shifting toward the GOP, they could easily gain more than 13. The one thing for certain, the red wave as predicted by most Republicans at the beginning of the year won’t happen. If anything, it will be a red trickle, if that.

With Biden hovering around 40% approval, 43% last I looked. The average losses for the party in power with a president hovering around 40% approval is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governors. It looks as if the Democrats will also gain 3-4 governorships in November. Even if the GOP regains the house, I look on this midterm election as a huge victory for the Democrats. At least from a historical perspective. The question is why no red wave? There should have been. I think I know why. But that’s another subject for another thread for another day.

 

[Jay59]

I think Georgia will stay Democratic. That the senate boils down to 2 states, PA and NV. That PA goes to Fetterman unless some unforeseen event happens. NV in my book is 50-50. But what happens there doesn’t matter in who controls the senate if every other state fall into place.

The house, today I’m looking at a 11-13 seat gain for the Republicans. Down from 25 in July, but with the momentum shifting toward the GOP, they could easily gain more than 13. The one thing for certain, the red wave as predicted by most Republicans at the beginning of the year won’t happen. If anything, it will be a red trickle, if that.

With Biden hovering around 40% approval, 43% last I looked. The average losses for the party in power with a president hovering around 40% approval is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governors. It looks as if the Democrats will also gain 3-4 governorships in November. Even if the GOP regains the house, I look on this midterm election as a huge victory for the Democrats. At least from a historical perspective. The question is why no red wave? There should have been. I think I know why. But that’s another subject for another thread for another day.

I agree with some of this. Both Pennsylvania and Nevada have been trending right but Pennsylvania is still blue and Oz is a weak candidate. Nevada is looking like a flip.

I think 10-13 is minimum. Given the number of empty Democratic seats, 20+ is likely.

The big factor is late deciding voters. The trend has been Republican in the last two weeks. Democrats need to reverse that or a wave could develop.

 

[gbg3]

It looks as if the Democrats will also gain 3-4 governorships in November.

Now that's one heck of an interesting prediction!!!!!!! My guess is you will be quite wrong with this one.

 

[gbg3]

I think 10-13 is minimum. Given the number of empty Democratic seats, 20+ is likely

I agree with your last sentence here.

 

[Perotista]

Now that's one heck of an interesting prediction!!!!!!! My guess is you will be quite wrong with this one.

I think Massachusetts and Maryland going to the Democrats are no brainier. I had counted on Arizona being the third. I may be wrong about that one as Lake is performing much better than anticipated.

 

[gbg3]

I think Massachusetts and Maryland going to the Democrats are no brainier. I had counted on Arizona being the third. I may be wrong about that one as Lake is performing much better than anticipated.

My guess is the GOP will gain 2 (most likely IMO) to 4 governorships.
I agree with you about M and M going to Dems.

 

[AGENT J]

Going by recent of almost my whole life (except Regan i think) if the party not in presidential power, (this case the right) doesn't make major gains that's very telling and embarrassing for the party.

Unfortunately, low turn out and a swing is how these elections have been going in America . . . .
its sad too because there are some big issues on the table with women rights, voter suppression and protections for democracy that shouldn't be overlooked or shrugged off

but again American voters arent well-informed on avg.
so many can't name the three branches of government and basic job, they don't know how their own state government works and they confuse it with the federal government and i bet the majority cant name their own representatives and tell you if they are local or fed.

if they vote they will vote on false narrative nonsensical issues that really arent political or controlled by politics

 

[Perotista]

I agree with some of this. Both Pennsylvania and Nevada have been trending right but Pennsylvania is still blue and Oz is a weak candidate. Nevada is looking like a flip.

I think 10-13 is minimum. Given the number of empty Democratic seats, 20+ is likely.

The big factor is late deciding voters. The trend has been Republican in the last two weeks. Democrats need to reverse that or a wave could develop.

I agree, my 11-13 house gain for the GOP as of today seems to be the minimum. I did state it could be more as the momentum has shifted. As for the senate, even if the GOP picks up NV, they’ll lose PA, another 50-50 tie is probable. Cortez Masto is the incumbent, I throw some weight behind that. Although Laxalt is doing darn good among Hispanics. 50-50 seems reasonable for NV

Then there is turnout, which is hard to predict. Today, I see the Democrats retaining the senate, either 50-50 or 51-49 and regaining control of the house. By gaining 11 or 20 or 25, I don’t think it matters much. The one thing that could make the house gains more than my 11-13 today is winter is coming, it’s getting cold. Natural gas and home heating oil are going through the roof making inflation, the economy back to the forefront of issues. We’ll see.

 

[mrjurrs]

The push the Democrats made through August and into September seems to have faded, but they are still in position to keep the Senate if not the House. However, any continuation of recent trends could make that unlikely.

That said, 538 is still calling Democrats a 2-to-1 favorite to retain control because of the likelihood of another 50/50 split. However, that is no longer the single most likely outcome Each of the possible 51/49 splits is more likely. It seems to be coming down to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada as Democrats seem to be holding on in Arizona and Republicans holding in Wisconsin.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

The Crystal Ball at UVa has only two states as tossups--Georgia and Nevada. Both are Democrat seats and an incumbent win in either assures Democrats of control assuming all other states follow their current lean. Republican-held Pennsylvania is listed as a Democrat pick-up.

2022 Senate - Sabato's Crystal Ball

To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2024 Senate races

centerforpolitics.org

RCP cites seven tossup states but their no tossup map has five going Republican including all three of the states in 538's list. That would give Republicans control with a 52-48 break.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

One common gauge is the generic ballot polls. Democrats briefly pulled ahead in September, but Republicans have surged in the last two weeks, currently +2.2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

Another thing to consider is betting markets. Nate Silver says this election is being treated like a Presidential year. He comments that his model projecting the Senate race is shifting to Republicans but betting money is shifting faster. It's worth noting the 14 October date of the article, since it predates a big shift in the generic ballot over the weekend.

Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election

For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. And the an…

fivethirtyeight.com

What did the polls say about the Kansas abortion issue before they voted?

 

[Perotista]

My guess is the GOP will gain 2 (most likely IMO) to 4 governorships.
I agree with you about M and M going to Dems.

I take it you’re talking about KS, WI, OR and NV. NV and WI are probably the two where the GOP has the best chance of pickups. If so, then governorships would be a wash. That is if AZ stays Republican.

 

[element94]

I think Massachusetts and Maryland going to the Democrats are no brainier. I had counted on Arizona being the third. I may be wrong about that one as Lake is performing much better than anticipated.

They love their TV personality "politicians".

 

[Jay59]

Going by recent of almost my whole life (except Regan i think) if the party not in presidential power, (this case the right) doesn't make major gains that's very telling and embarrassing for the party.

Unfortunately, low turn out and a swing is how these elections have been going in America . . . .
its sad too because there are some big issues on the table with women rights, voter suppression and protections for democracy that shouldn't be overlooked or shrugged off

but again American voters arent well-informed on avg.
so many can't name the three branches of government and basic job, they don't know how their own state government works and they confuse it with the federal government and i bet the majority cant name their own representatives and tell you if they are local or fed.

if they vote they will vote on false narrative nonsensical issues that really arent political or controlled by politics

Things are trending that Republicans will not be embarrassed and possibly celebrating.

The big issue is economic and recent inflation figures are against Biden's administration. Even someone who cannot name the branches over government can tell when eggs are $3.50 a dozen. No narrative is involved.

I agree, my 11-13 house gain for the GOP as of today seems to be the minimum. I did state it could be more as the momentum has shifted. As for the senate, even if the GOP picks up NV, they’ll lose PA, another 50-50 tie is probable. Cortez Masto is the incumbent, I throw some weight behind that. Although Laxalt is doing darn good among Hispanics. 50-50 seems reasonable for NV

Then there is turnout, which is hard to predict. Today, I see the Democrats retaining the senate, either 50-50 or 51-49 and regaining control of the house. By gaining 11 or 20 or 25, I don’t think it matters much. The one thing that could make the house gains more than my 11-13 today is winter is coming, it’s getting cold. Natural gas and home heating oil are going through the roof making inflation, the economy back to the forefront of issues. We’ll see.

10-13 would be a major win for the Democrats. That's where they were at their high point in September.

What did the polls say about the Kansas abortion issue before they voted?

I am not aware of any polling.

However, the outcome was expected. In spite of the state's other political leanings, Kansas was always a very choice friendly state.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Whatever is being predicted, I suspect there will be a few surprises here and there including a few runoffs.

 

[AGENT J]

Things are trending that Republicans will not be embarrassed and possibly celebrating.

didnt say they would be embarrassed i said going by the recent history of almost my whole life (except Regan i think) if the party not in presidential power, (this case the right) doesn't make major gains that's very telling and embarrassing for the party.

predictions dont interest me much, results do

The big issue is economic and recent inflation figures are against Biden's administration. Even someone who cannot name the branches over government can tell when eggs are $3.50 a dozen. No narrative is involved.

LMAO thanks for proving my point
your post above is that type of retardation around the country and that's a perfect example about the uninformed voter and false narrative issues. In three weeks if a person goes to the polls voting on the price of eggs BECAUSE they think the president or a party is responsible they are an uninformed sheep-brain moron.
wow i love it when that instantly happens and reality is proven right. lol

 

[gbg3]

I take it you’re talking about KS, WI, OR and NV. NV and WI are probably the two where the GOP has the best chance of pickups. If so, then governorships would be a wash. That is if AZ stays Republican.

I am talking about those four and smiled when reading, as you just left them out entirely when you made your 3-4 Dem governorship gain prediction.
I must say, I enjoy reading your predictions and, often, because some of them just sound so illogical to me.

 

[Tender Branson]

On the 1st day of in-person early voting, Georgia had almost as many in-person early votes yesterday as on the 1st day of the 2020 presidential election.

Obviously, many postal voters from 2020 (COVID !!!) are switching back to traditional voting patterns, but still good to see.

 

[tres borrachos]

I think Georgia will stay Democratic. That the senate boils down to 2 states, PA and NV. That PA goes to Fetterman unless some unforeseen event happens. NV in my book is 50-50. But what happens there doesn’t matter in who controls the senate if every other state fall into place.

The house, today I’m looking at a 11-13 seat gain for the Republicans. Down from 25 in July, but with the momentum shifting toward the GOP, they could easily gain more than 13. The one thing for certain, the red wave as predicted by most Republicans at the beginning of the year won’t happen. If anything, it will be a red trickle, if that.

With Biden hovering around 40% approval, 43% last I looked. The average losses for the party in power with a president hovering around 40% approval is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governors. It looks as if the Democrats will also gain 3-4 governorships in November. Even if the GOP regains the house, I look on this midterm election as a huge victory for the Democrats. At least from a historical perspective. The question is why no red wave? There should have been. I think I know why. But that’s another subject for another thread for another day.

Interesting as always Pero. Love your insight and thoughts.

So you think Warnock and Fetterman will take their races?

 

[Jay59]

didnt say they would be embarrassed i said going by the recent history of almost my whole life (except Regan i think) if the party not in presidential power, (this case the right) doesn't make major gains that's very telling and embarrassing for the party.

predictions dont interest me much, results do

LMAO thanks for proving my point
your post above is that type of retardation around the country and that's a perfect example about the uninformed voter and false narrative issues. In three weeks if a person goes to the polls voting on the price of eggs BECAUSE they think the president or a party is responsible they are an uninformed sheep-brain moron.
wow i love it when that instantly happens and reality is proven right. lol

Except that you were proven wrong.

I guess that you don't care about details like that.

For the record, recognizing inflation as a problem is not retarded. No narrative is involved, false or fair. Thatt includes your narrative about the importance of side issues.

 

[Perotista]

I am talking about those four and smiled when reading, as you just left them out entirely when you made your 3-4 Dem governorship gain prediction.
I must say, I enjoy reading your predictions and, often, because some of them just sound so illogical to me.

This far out, we’re all illogical to some extent. No one can predict turnout. Today numbers which is what I usually go by won’t be the same come November. I can live with that.

 

[mrjurrs]

Things are trending that Republicans will not be embarrassed and possibly celebrating.

The big issue is economic and recent inflation figures are against Biden's administration. Even someone who cannot name the branches over government can tell when eggs are $3.50 a dozen. No narrative is involved.


10-13 would be a major win for the Democrats. That's where they were at their high point in September.


I am not aware of any polling.

However, the outcome was expected. In spite of the state's other political leanings, Kansas was always a very choice friendly state.

The outcome was not expected.
"Voters showed up in unforeseen numbers in urban areas of the state, while rural areas underperformed compared with turnout in the presidential race two years ago."

Kansas voters defeat abortion amendment in unexpected landslide • Kansas Reflector

Kansas voters in a landslide Tuesday defeated a constitutional amendment that would have stripped residents of abortion rights, defying polling and political observers who expected a close result.

kansasreflector.com

 

[tres borrachos]

I think Massachusetts and Maryland going to the Democrats are no brainier. I had counted on Arizona being the third. I may be wrong about that one as Lake is performing much better than anticipated.

Diehl (R-MA) is going to lose badly. Charlie Baker is a very popular governor and a very moderate Republican. Diehl is associated with Trump, so he will lose to Healey and I suspect lose pretty badly.

 

[tres borrachos]

Things are trending that Republicans will not be embarrassed and possibly celebrating.

The big issue is economic and recent inflation figures are against Biden's administration. Even someone who cannot name the branches over government can tell when eggs are $3.50 a dozen. No narrative is involved.


10-13 would be a major win for the Democrats. That's where they were at their high point in September.


I am not aware of any polling.

However, the outcome was expected. In spite of the state's other political leanings, Kansas was always a very choice friendly state.

How do the Republicans plan to reduce the cost of eggs?