The Trump effect. How contagious is it? (1 Viewer)

[Ishm]

Since taking office in late Jan and starting to implement his policies, we have watched Trump move ever further backwards in support. Polling shows him underwater on almost all key measures today. If we had another election tomorrow, the chances of Trump winning again would be extremely low if challenged by a capable opponent at either the primary stage or the presidential election. At the same time we have observed how it appears the 'Trump effect' has swung an almost certain conservative win in the Canadian elections to what appears to now be a solid liberal win.

In a few days the Australians also go to the polls, and indications there are similar to Canada. What was earlier forecast to be a very likely conservative win, is now predicted to become another liberal win. Again the key element making such a fast change in political fortunes for Australians is what Trump has been up to and the rejection of the hard right philosophies that he represents. We will know for sure how this plays out next week.

Here in New Zealand we elected a conservative govt in late 2023. I voted for them using my citizenship here. They are MUCH more centrist than our maga govt, but they have pursued some similar economic policies such as aggressively downsizing govt agencies and regulations, including environmental ones, plus a tax cut (that most benefitted lower incomes though). For the first time since their election, the latest polls a week or so back showed that if there was a new election today they would probably lose to the local liberal party. I get the feeling that this is also in part a reflection of the global reaction to Trumps actions.

Post covid there seemed to be a noticeable global strengthening of the political right. It will interesting to see from other elections now if Trump has singlehandedly managed to shift global sentiment back to the left due to the global disgust at what he has been doing as a far right govt.

 

[Mithrae]

Since taking office in late Jan and starting to implement his policies, we have watched Trump move ever further backwards in support. Polling shows him underwater on almost all key measures today. If we had another election tomorrow, the chances of Trump winning again would be extremely low if challenged by a capable opponent at either the primary stage or the presidential election.

Unfortunately he and his party still have 18 months to 'secure' the next election.

Post covid there seemed to be a noticeable global strengthening of the political right. It will interesting to see from other elections now if Trump has singlehandedly managed to shift global sentiment back to the left due to the global disgust at what he has been doing as a far right govt.

Towards the left maybe, in some countries, for a while. There aren't many major parties that are really left wing; British Labour are just as center-right as the Democrats and the Australian Labor Party not much better. American oligarchs don't keep their influence in America any more than Rupert Murdoch stayed in Australia; with the masks coming off it's a safe bet that Google, YouTube, Facebook and other media will tilt their algorithms around the world even more towards 'business-friendly' rather than people-friendly content.

Furthermore the tariffs, sabre-rattling and cozying up to authoritarian regimes by Trump's America will increase the frequency and sense of insecurity, threat and material shortages around the world, compounding the ongoing acceleration of climate breakdown and ecological collapse: When people feel they don't have enough, they're less inclined to share or support policies that share with those in genuine need; when they feel insecure, they prioritize their own perceived security at others' expense and so on. The successes of fascism following the Great Depression are one obvious example of this trend, curtailment of civil liberties and increase in state surveillance after 9/11 another. It's also why no amount of "border security" has ever or will ever be a winning issue for the Democrats, because all they've done is accept and reinforce the right-wing threat-based framing of the issue. The indirect trend towards right-wing (or more extrinsic) values caused by Trumpian instability and insecurity may be even more impactful than the direct trend of increasingly brazen billionaire propagandizing.

The Values Ratchet

How to ensure that nations slide ever further into selfishness, and ever further to the right.

www.monbiot.com

Any political movement that fails to understand two basic psychological traits will, before long, fizzle out. The first is Shifting Baseline Syndrome. Coined by the biologist Daniel Pauly, it originally described our relationship to ecosystems(1), but it’s just as relevant to politics. We perceive the circumstances of our youth as normal and unexceptional – however sparse or cruel they may be. By this means, over the generations, we adjust to almost any degree of deprivation or oppression, imagining it to be natural and immutable.

The second is the Values Ratchet (also known as policy feedback). If, for example, your country has a public health system which ensures that everyone who needs treatment receives it without payment, it helps instil the belief that it is normal to care for strangers, and abnormal and wrong to neglect them(2,3). If you live in a country where people are left to die, this embeds the idea that you have no responsibility towards the poor and weak. The existence of these traits is supported by a vast body of experimental and observational research, of which Labour and the US Democrats appear determined to know nothing.

We are not born with our core values: they are strongly shaped by our social environment. These values can be placed on a spectrum between extrinsic and intrinsic. People towards the intrinsic end have high levels of self-acceptance, strong bonds of intimacy and a powerful desire to help other people. People at the other end are drawn to external signifiers, such as fame, financial success, image and attractiveness(4). They seek praise and rewards from others. . . .

As extrinsic values are strongly associated with conservative politics, it’s in the interests of conservative parties and conservative media to cultivate these values. There are three basic methods. The first is to generate a sense of threat. Experiments reported in the journal Motivation and Emotion suggest that when people feel threatened or insecure they gravitate towards extrinsic goals(16). Perceived dangers – such as the threat of crime, terrorism, deficits, inflation or immigration – trigger a short-term survival response, in which you protect your own interests and forget other people’s. . . .