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The new Iranian uprising - This time, the Mullahs will fall

The Iranian government has announced that there will be no more Mr nice guy. Expect some more cracked heads and deaths. The "revolution" is not going to happen soon.
 
Not exactly true. At first they didn't fight back because they couldn't. The other guys have the bigger guns. But now they're starting to get rougher, as evidenced by the picture in the OP.

That's the nature of protests; some people behave differently than most. For the most part though, it's been a nonviolent movement. Moreover, I think sending them guns wouldn't be wise. If the struggle DOES become an outright violent confrontation between the protesters and the military, the military would easily win.

As long as the protests stay mostly nonviolent, there is the real possibility that most of the Revolutionary Guard will switch sides (which, obviously, would spell the end of the regime). Many of them are already refusing to obey orders to fire on peaceful protesters. IMO the goal of the protests should be to encourage the military to join them, not to kill them.
 
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Iran has several options, it can use its police and military to subdue the population openly, or it could use Hezbollah covertly to kill revolution leaders. I say we send in SOF to kill off Hezbollah wherever they are, so that whatever Iran does will be public.
 

Precisly!

This is why Basji militia members need to be quietly killed off. Then IRG members, then Aminijihad, and finally the Ayetoiletbowl himself.
 

You, sir, are a warrior and a poet.

As I've stated before, an Iranian rebellion -- successful or not -- would vastly change my opinion of human nature.
 
The Iranian government has announced that there will be no more Mr nice guy. Expect some more cracked heads and deaths. The "revolution" is not going to happen soon.

The tighter the Iranian nazi government tightens its grip the more people that will slip through its grasp and go rebellious on their asses.
 

Ah, so it is better to just bow down than to defend yourself? Is that what you are saying?

We published this statement on June 17th in response to the murder of Iranian civilians asserting their political beliefs by the basij.


Seems like some liberal pacifist rubbish to me. I'm sure if the police in your neighborhood were attempting to beat you, shoot you and throw you off buildings you'd want a gun to defend yourself.

stalin was a nice being said:
This isn't all of Iran. Its a small segment and if the US or the western world tries to help the protestors you can bet that the "revolution" will be over.

No revolution is made by the entire populace of a country.


They are not "leading" the protests; they are riding on the crest of the tidal wave that the Iran people have generated. In case you haven't noticed many of the leaders were unable to maintain their position because of the fact that they could not reconcile their conservative political beliefs with the revolutionary demands of the Iranian people.

DeeJayH said:
Brutality will win over Ideology

I can't agree with this. The tensions that have boiled over into this movement have existed since the Islamic revolution crushed the workers' (socialist) movement and their coming out into the open as they have has produced a qualitative change in the political situation in the country. Whatever happens, there is simply no going back now.
 
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BTW I just wanted to add that I am glad that this is once again being discussed. It is disheartening to see events as important as these discussed only when the main stream media is reporting on them (which never lasts that long because they are always looking for the new hype), and between then and now, while tensions have not been as explosive they have been maintained. The movement never went anywhere and it won't until these issues are resolved, through whatever means.

Revolution does not happen overnight. It can take years, even decades to finally spill over into decisive conflict. While I initially was overly optimistic about the advances the protesters would make in the initial explosive stage, I still stand by my earlier statement that this will not die out and that this lapse in profound action on the part of the protesters is simply due to a regrouping of forces and a rebalancing of the situation and the power relations in Iranian society.

This will continue until these tensions are resolved.
 
Ah, so it is better to just bow down than to defend yourself? Is that what you are saying?

Not at all. I'm saying it's better for them to continue protests that are (mostly) non-violent...at least until a good bit of the military starts to defect. There is simply no way that a bunch of college students are going to win a firepower contest against the Revolutionary Guard, if it comes to that.

Put yourself in the position of a Revolutionary Guardsman: You're doing your job defending your country and collecting your paycheck. You don't want to hurt your fellow countrymen, and you may even sympathize with their ideals. If other Guardsmen start to stand down and/or join the opposition, there is a good chance that you'll stand down too. But if protesters start shooting at you, of course you're going to shoot back as you don't want to die.

The only way the revolution can be successful is if the military forces abandon the regime. Overpowering the military is a hopeless fantasy.

Khayembii Communique said:
Seems like some liberal pacifist rubbish to me. I'm sure if the police in your neighborhood were attempting to beat you, shoot you and throw you off buildings you'd want a gun to defend yourself.

Most successful democratic revolutions in recent years have been relatively nonviolent. In fact, I can only think of one recent revolution with much protester-initiated violence at all: Kyrgyzstan. And even there, it was mostly limited to overwhelming police in poorly-defended areas, taking over government buildings, and tossing some Molotov cocktails...not a full-scale armed rebellion.
 
1. The KKK never was an official organ of the State, nor a government itself, so using it as an example of a Theocracy fails.

2. The previous (Muslim) Theocracy in Spain lasted for about 800 years, and was quite stable for most of that time. It is also asserted by apologists for Islam that religious minorities fared quite well under that regime.

3. Technically, Great Britain might be called a Theocracy, since the Queen is also the head of the Church of England. This is obviously a semantic exercise.

4. Ancient Egypt appears to have had one of the highest living standards in the ancient world, and functioned as a stable Technocracy with a few crises for about 3000 years.

5. During the Pax Romana, a period marked by peace general tolerance and lawfulness, The Empire had a definite Official Religion, and indeed proclaimed the Emperors to be gods.

6. The Confederacy, much less the Old South was never a Theocracy.

7. The Soviet Union, and Communist China which enslaved and killed hundreds of millions were officially Atheistic, and suppressed religion.

8. Tyrannies are made by tyrannical personalities who will attach themselves to whatever creed, religion, or philosophy allows them to exert their desire for power. This includes any democratic form of government.
 
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Yes, which is why we have said that the people must be armed to defend themselves.

I fully agree that it is important to get members of the state to come over to the side of the people if it is possible. There have been instances of this happening in Iran when members of the police and army have refused to attack the protesters or have even gone over to their side, but not on a significant scale as of yet.


Such revolutions were specific to the conditions in which they developed and many were more violent than most think (India, for example). Not sure what that has to do with what you quoted, though.
 

It is scary to think about what a nuclear Iranian government is likely to do if they really feel threatened from internal forces. North Korea on steroids!
 
washunut said:
It is scary to think about what a nuclear Iranian government is likely to do if they really feel threatened from internal forces. North Korea on steroids!

Um, they won't do anything.
 
Even if they did I doubt they would nuke themselves. :roll:

Sometimes it is hard to know if responses on this site are jokes or serious. Clearly they will not nuke themselves, but they could threaten their neighbors to change the focus off their ruthless actions against their own people.
 

What does that have to do with the internal situation?
 
The Green Revolution is no longer confined to Teheran and other large cities, but has now spread into the heartland of Iran. This is good news, and it also shows that the fundamentals of liberty are universal. People will not live as slaves. As one professor in an Iranian college town now teaches his students, "We are free to breathe, but not free to live; and not being free to live, we're dead, actually". Students, as well as others, are now expressing their beliefs out in the open, in defiance of the Mullahs.

Read this article in the LA times. The Mullah's hold on the people Iran is now growing tenuous. The Mullah's can take whatever hard line they want, but Liberty will never be suppressed, if that is what the people want.

My prediction - The Mullahs will fall within the next 5 years, and maybe much sooner.
 
More reports that the situation is complex but the ruling elite may be starting to disintegrate:

Iran's parliament exposes abuse of opposition prisoners at Tehran jail | World news | The Guardian

Indeed.

Amidinijihad's days are numbered and he knows it. The basji know it and the Ayetolietbowl knows it.

Eventually, the Republican Guard will begin to realize they are defending a dead horse. They will change sides or they WILL pay the price of their servetude to an unspeakable evil.
 
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