The likelihood of this Senate flip is looking good

[gbg3]

With each new poll, I like the solid potential of this flip.

 

[Bok Tuklo]

I agree. Republicans take at least 3 seats. Probably 4. Even if they nominate cuckoo banana heads.

 

[Slavister]

Not much of a flip

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

The Senate will flip, but then so will the House. Stale mate.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

With each new poll, I like the solid potential of this flip.

View attachment 67472506

Don’t get your hopes up so early in the season.

Manchin hasn’t even said that he’ll run for a 3rd term, but if he does, he already has more than 10X as much cash on hand as Justice.

 

[multivita-man]

Don’t get your hopes up so early in the season.

Manchin hasn’t even said that he’ll run for a 3rd term, but if he does, he already has more than 10X as much cash on hand as Justice.

He's toast.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

The Senate will flip, but then so will the House. Stale mate.

I agree that is likely.

R’s take a similarly slim lead in the Senate, and Dems take back the House with a bigger majority.

 

[Plasmaball]

You lose the house.

 

[RaleBulgarian]

He's toast.

Maybe, maybe not.

I wouldn’t automatically count out an unpopular incumbent. Especially one that has established connections/relationships over many years and has a huge cash advantage over his closest opponent.

 

[Callen]

I think it is more likely than not the Senate flips but it has more to do with the number of GOP vs Dem seats up for election. Not a given but likely. the House on the the other hand looks like a slam dunk for the Dems.

 

[noonereal]

With each new poll, I like the solid potential of this flip.

View attachment 67472506

It has always been expected the Senate would flip in 2024.

 

[noonereal]

I think it is more likely than not the Senate flips but it has more to do with the number of GOP vs Dem seats up for election. Not a given but likely. the House on the the other hand looks like a slam dunk for the Dems.

Bingo!

 

[Ginger Ale]

Maybe a speaker then? How exciting!!

 

[trouble13]

Maybe a speaker then? How exciting!!

OK That was a pretty good jab

 

[Linc]

OK That was a pretty good jab

Hawley the gop Jew-hater from Missouri

 

[Linc]

I think it is more likely than not the Senate flips but it has more to do with the number of GOP vs Dem seats up for election. Not a given but likely. the House on the the other hand looks like a slam dunk for the Dems.

Try looking at the gerrymandering before making this statement.

 

[trouble13]

It will boil down to how well the media can convince the voters not to believe their lying eyes. If they can do it again the right is going to be in for another disappointing election. If people have finally had enough of the medias lies the left is going to have an epic meltdown.

 

[Plasmaball]

It will boil down to how well the media can convince the voters not to believe their lying eyes. If they can do it again the right is going to be in for another disappointing election. If people have finally had enough of the medias lies the left is going to have an epic meltdown.

Or...the fact that it's a weak time for dems in the senate but sure let's go with this stupidity

 

[reflechissez]

It will boil down to how well the media can convince the voters not to believe their lying eyes. If they can do it again the right is going to be in for another disappointing election. If people have finally had enough of the medias lies the left is going to have an epic meltdown.

sure

 

[US&THEM]

It will boil down to how well the media can convince the voters not to believe their lying eyes. If they can do it again the right is going to be in for another disappointing election. If people have finally had enough of the medias lies the left is going to have an epic meltdown.

Matt Gaetz has sucked

 

[trouble13]

Or...the fact that it's a weak time for dems in the senate but sure let's go with this stupidity

There's no such thing. Democrats will vote for a vegetable with a D at the end of it's name (see John Fetterman) before voting Republican. Turn out is all that matters anymore. The idea of voting for the best candidate has been abandoned and replaced with the maintaining of the partisan dominance.

 

[trouble13]

Matt Gaetz has sucked

Thanks for that unsolicted and irrelevant opinion.

 

[US&THEM]

Thanks for that unsolicted and irrelevant opinion.

You will wonder why the GOP lost the house and barely flips the Senate. Matt Gaetz is ground zero of suck

 

[reflechissez]

There's no such thing. Democrats will vote for a vegetable with a D at the end of it's name (see John Fetterman) before voting Republican. Turn out is all that matters anymore. The idea of voting for the best candidate has been abandoned and replaced with the maintaining of the partisan dominance.

Thanks for that unsolicited and irrelevant opinion.

 

[Jay59]

With each new poll, I like the solid potential of this flip.

View attachment 67472506

This is not news. Most pundits had this as a Republican pickup as far back as last year.

UVa had it on its first update in January 2023. The current rating is 50 Republican, 47 Democrat, and 3 toss-up.

2024 Senate - Sabato's Crystal Ball

To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. 2024 Senate ratings Updated: Nov. 4, 2024 2024 Senate races

centerforpolitics.org

Check 270towin for a spread of opinion. Several pundits put this in the safe Republican column. Only Cook puts it as a toss-up and it is also the only one with Republicans not favored for at least 50 seats.

2024 Senate Election Forecast Maps - 270toWin

Compare the current 2024 Senate map projections of various political pundits. Use any of the maps to create and share your own 2024 forecast

www.270towin.com

The map is severely against the Democrats, even worse than against the Republicans in 2022. Look what the Democrats did with that in a down year. I would be very surprised if Republicans came away with fewer than two pickups.