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The coming 'tsunami of debt' and financial crisis in America




The meme that the money was spent to enrich Obama friends is a long debunked right-wing lie.
http://www.politifact.com/subjects/stimulus/?page=2
 
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[/QUOTE]

Yes, we know Obama lied about " shovel ready " jobs.

We would have to be pretty stupid to trust that guy again.

Who knows, he might even try to restart his failed "green jobs " initiative again
 
Yes, there is credence in the model. The model is just part of a bigger picture of what Multi-Cultural Internationalists (MCIs, the rulers on the left) and Corporate Global Expansionists (CGEs, the rulers on the right) have caused and are continuing to cause unabated in their strange-bedfellows partnership that harms American citizens in the name of misguided ideology and profits-at-any-price respectively.

Short of major nationalism in America to fuel incentive to create policies that favor Americans, no, there's nothing that can be done to stop or counter what MCIs and CGEs have been doing via their so-called "global economy": the exporting of American living-wage jobs to third-world nations and thereby importing third-world poverty to Americans, third-world poverty that the rising debt is only and unsuccessfully temporarily functioning to camouflage.

With regard to the debt-default dominoes, yes, clearly, America itself will be pushed closer to default on a number of debt items as a result.

The foundation of the solution lies in neither government or private sector action, but first must manifest in we the people becoming aware of the damage the MCI and CGE policies are doing to Americans and that we are all one big family, a family of Americans, both rich and poor alike, and that the vast majority of us All are going to suffer tremendously if the problem isn't solved. We The People of the United States of America -- its Citizens -- must recognize that we are indeed One, that liberty and justice For All Americans hinges in the balance of solving this potentially country-killing problem. Only then can We The People en masse compel both government and private sector changes necessary to what is tantamount to saving our country from inevitable one-world-government annexation.

It's not too late .. but it's nearing being too late. The more American citizens are brought down by this increasing burden the less energy, self-esteem and hope they will have that their own political action will be of positive value in solving the problem. And, since the solution to the problem is centrist in nature, because we have only two parties with power, the liberal Democrats and the conservative Republicans, there is no centrist solution policies/candidates that will arise from them, and all that will happen from this politics-as-usual dualism is a continuing division of Americans against each other in so many and irrelevant ways that render us powerless as a unit instead of the bringing of us all together as One United Force that we need right now.

The solution lies in creating and marketing a centrist political party .. and fast.

See my signature.
 
In response to the portion above in bold, and not the rest of the diatribe, the U.S. apart from "clearly" pushing for default, America has no intention of defaulting at all. In fact, no sovereign nation with its own currency ever has to default. One can always monetize the debt buy paying off the debt with newly minted currency. But in the current case, U.S. debt is quite sustainable.

We already have a centrist party, it's called the Democratic Party.
 
Everything I posted in my previous post here is true -- everything.

I realize that you liberals don't like to hear that your clearly liberal, not centrist Democrat party is partially responsible for the problem, and that you thus have a tendency to deny that there is a problem at all.

But in so doing you do harm to your fellow Americans.

It's time to put partisan politics-as-usual aside.

I strongly suggest that all those with "liberal" and "conservative" listed as their lean in the margin to the left of their posts lay down their ideological cudgels and start finding common ground to create a One Unit centrist force to solve this dire threat to All Americans.
 
Re-asserting that you are right is not debate.

The fact that you call yourself a "centrist" does not make you one. You give yourself away as a right-winger when you consider the current Democratic Party "liberal." As the graph below shows, Northern Democrats are about as liberal as they were in the 1970s but Republicans are FAR more conservative than they have historically been. (I factor out Southern Democrats because they moved to the R Party.)


Source: Political Polarization

There was a time when Republicans accepted a social safety net as desirable. There was a time when Republicans did not denounce the poor as "moochers." There was a time when Republicans respected labor. Now, if one is not a rich person, I mean "job creator," one isn't valued by Republicans. One really only needs to read the 1956 Republican Platform to realize how off-the-cliff this once great political party has devolved.

So, if you are blaming both-sides for not getting work done, you have misdirected anger. The Democrats are following successful policies that they always have. It's the Republicans who are different. If like Republicans declaring that the earth was flat, against Democratic opposition, and you characterize this centrism as “Parties Differ on Shape of Planet.”
 
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Your post is part obvious projection (your first three sentences) and part meaningless digression via esoterically presented erroneous data (the rest of it).

A word to the wise: if you care about your fellow Americans, don't let your liberal left-winger or conservative right-winger ideology continue to create division among Americans.

Find a way to transcend your polarized ideology and its polemic paradigm.

Then move to the center, the center, where you recognize the problems created by both the Democrats and the Republicans, the Multi-Cultural Internationalists and the Corporate Global Expansionists respectively, who are making life so painful for so many of your fellow Americans.
 

That's the centrist cop-out. Last year, the Republicans shut down the government. A few years ago, they created a crisis over the debt ceiling that resulted in the government getting its bond rating lowered. This action by Republicans was taking America hostage, threatening to undermine the economy and disrupt the essential business of government unless they get policy concessions they would never have been able to enact through legislation. And Democrats, who would have been justified in rejecting this extortion altogether, had gone a long way toward meeting those Republican demands.

While you try to preach as there is equivalence on both sides -- equally wrong and equally at fault on any issue, never mind the facts, there is not equivalence.

Let me remind you that this thread is about debt, which the OP characterizes as a crisis, when economists say it is not a crisis.
 
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:roll:

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One thing that scares me is that the hedge-fund managers, like Soros, are taking long term positions in the markets right now with S&P stocks and 10yr T-bonds though they're keeping some short positions for profits. If they see something coming, or suspect an asset bubble correction from the FED pulling back on QE, it'll be the economy and retail class that takes the hit.
 


Oh wow.....

Is Japan going to " default " on its debt ?

No, they can simply print currency to the point of wiping out the savings of every Japanese citizen while their economy crashes and burns.

Believe it or not, there are REAL consequences to massive deficit spending for the purpose of fiscal stimulus.

The middle class and the poor are the one's that have to suffer the consequences of these STUPID Liberal economic policies.
 

Go ahead, please tell us the consequences to the middle class and the poor due to "massive deficit spending?" Much of that "massive deficit spending" was on extending unemployment insurance; Medicaid; and Food Stamps -- areas that the middle class and the poor needed during the economic downturn. Conservatives would have slashed these expenditures (and Republicans even did hold up extending unemployment until Obama extended the Bush tax-cuts for upper-income taxpayers -- so we know where conservatives truly stand, and it's not with the middle class and the poor.)

Conservatives were telling us that this "massive deficit spending" would bring us high interest rates, inflation and debase the currency -- none of which have materialized. Meanwhile, the middle class and the poor received benefits that would have been slashed by conservative ideologues.
 

Macro Economic is just a hidden code word for the same old completely discredited Keynesian economics, it didn't work during the fool John Maynard Keynes lifetime, and its not working in it replay since 2008.

John Maynard Keynes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Keynesian economics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Keynes was a self-serving, self-aggrandized idiot who destroyed the lives of 100s of Million of everyday common people.

We do need spending, but not the inefficiency of Government Chosen Largess. We need to get freaken Government out of the way of the markets to allow investors to research and choose what economic activities will make money, which in turn will help everyone.

Having the Government pick and chose activities by radical environmental or ethnocentric ideals is a recipe for getting 0.10 worth of benefit for the dollar at best!

Worse, we are loaded to near junk bond status in National Debt, each new stimulus dollar we spend, pushes further into the realm that no one wants anything to do with the country; trade, advancing credit, education (why spend big bucks to go to school to learn from stupids), research and investment.

Each additional dollar of National Debt reduces the economic activity in the country by several dollars, and it even worse when many of those "stimulus" dollars are going to China.

There is not substitute for massive Industry! None!

Get over it and get to work!

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Thanks to unprecedented Monetary Stimulus Obama's massive amount of new debt is relatively cheap, for now.

Its not difficult to understand the REAL motivations behind the FEDs perpetual pumping

The lack of inflation is a direct indication of the failure of QE, as it was sold as a way to ward off " de-flation " as all this liquidity made it out into the economy.

Well over 84 percent of all that liquidity is sitting on the FEDs books as " excess reserves "

And the Middle Class is shrinking and is turning into the poor under Obama.

That means they're qualifying for " benefits " that they wouldn't have needed had a competent leader been elected.

Why you think thats worth bragging about is beyond me.
 
Problem is the money would never be spent. If you recall, we had this sort of idea with the stimulus package, and that went no where.
That's plainly wrong. Not only was the headline dollar figure of the ARRA distributed and spent in it's entirety, the portion of the ARRA devoted to infrastructure (too small a portion) and the bill as a whole was overly successful according to the broad majority of credible analysis.
 
What does? The fact that unemployment is still crap (along with the rest of the economy
The health of the labor market has seen a rather dramatic turnaround since its implementation, alongside many other key economic indicators. To suggest otherwise is a sign of denial or misinformation.
 
Several thoughts come to mind after reading the above post. 1) It represents economic illiteracy. (e.g. "Each additional dollar of National Debt reduces the economic activity in the country by several dollars, and it even worse when many of those "stimulus" dollars are going to China.") 2) It makes wild assertions (example: "Having the Government pick and chose activities by radical environmental or ethnocentric ideals is a recipe for getting 0.10 worth of benefit for the dollar at best!") which have nothing to do with Keynesian thought and uses figures clearly plucked from the air. 3) I can't understand why you even bothered to include two Wikipedia links that do not support the wild opinions in the post.

The claim that U.S. securities are "near junk bond status in National Debt" is not only wrong it's strongly wrong. Corporations, individuals and governments are willing to accept record low interest rates for the privileged of lending the U.S. government money. In 2009 and 2010 they were willing to pay the U.S. negative interest to lend it money. The fact that they are willing to do so, without a risk-premium, means they have faith that the U.S. will repay the debt instrument.
 
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Here, here. You are presenting a position that is remarkable. Conservatives were previously arguing that raising the money stock would be inflationary and, therefore, the QE program was a failure because it will cause high inflation. Now, since QE did not cause high inflation, you make the exact opposite argument -- QE is a failure because it did not cause inflation.

If one is claiming that the middle class is shrinking and it is due to Obama policies, which policies might those be? What has happened over the last three decades in growing income inequality, with more and more income concentrated into the top class, which means less is available below. The latest data shows that "Average, or mean, pretax income for the wealthiest 10% of U.S. families rose 10% in 2013 from 2010, but families in the bottom 40% saw their average inflation-adjusted income decline over that period, according to the Fed's Survey of Consumer Finances, which is conducted every three years." Obama didn't cause that. That is the legacy of rolling back taxes on the rich going back to the Reagan years and made worse under Bush.
 
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That's always been my thinking. Anyone who gets public money, unless they are demonstrably disabled, should be required to work at least 5 hours a day, 5 days a week to get a check. Otherwise, screw 'em. Maybe if we forced people to work for their money, they might get off their asses and get jobs.
 
There are problems with your simplistic solution. The first, is that there are three people looking for each job opening. The second, is that your view of "welfare" is a throughback to the 1970s. In 1996, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act, was passed, which reduced aid to the poor and reformed your notion of welfare. You can read all about it here: Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

However, what I don't understand is contradictory reasoning. Conservatives are arguing that the stimulus "didn't do anything" and government doesn't create jobs -- but the argument that I am now reading now is that they want a new WPA program to build roads and bridges. Well, we don't need such a program. Roads and bridges are now mainly built by private contractors, who have expertise in these types of projects. If the government wants to spend money to build a road, they need not use "welfare recipients." They let a contract and private companies hire workers. If demand for roads and other projects is great enough, unemployed workers apply for those jobs.
 
...

We already have a centrist party, it's called the Democratic Party.

ROFLOL

No... the 2014 Democratic Party is a Extreme Ethnocentric Leftist near socialist party.

The Democratic Party of JFK was a centrist party, and today his viewpoints and policy decisions would be considered Republican Moderate.

The funny thing is, as far to the extreme left as the Democratic Party's Rhetoric and Platform have shifted, their ACTIONS and OUTCOMES are often right Cronnie-Corporitist Statist.

This is not your Grandfathers Democratic Party,...

they'd call your grandfather a "Racist" for his views on Welfare reduction and work requirements and ban him from the party and then sick the IRS on him.

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I don't need to read about it, I was an administrator of the programs during that time. I experienced it first hand.

I don't have a lot of time to elaborate, but suffice it to say that there have been changes since 1996, and able bodied people still receive welfare. As have been discussed here before, only about 40% of able bodied welfare recipients are actually working.

Also, this "simplistic plan" doesn't put people in jobs, in creates public works jobs (in construction) for these people to do.
 

I included the links because I expected you to READ them. ( In hindsight, I guess that was too respectful and too hopeful.)

If you had read them, you would have seen that the basic theorems of Keynesian economics were discredited and abandoned by 1979 and replaced by other economic theories, and did not come back into any form of use until 2008, and the disastrous economics of the Obama Administration.

Post-war displacement of Keynesianism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ( link from the first article in the section on the decline)

John Maynard Keynes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


And I expected you to be fair and wise enough to read the section of Criticism of the Keynesian economic theory:


I stand behind the assertions I made, an examination of the facts of the Obama Administration will prove each and every one of them out, to any who is NOT an St. Obama-Blinded Sycophant.

You seem to completely lack understanding of the impact on consumer confidence on economic activity. We have a crisis of consumer confidence which has lasted the entire Obama Presidency, particularly by Corporate Management.

You ignore the impact of rising National Debt on the costs of servicing that debt, monies which could and should be spent on helping the American People.

Much of the stimulus spending did go to the China, and the CBO has stated it so!

Stimulus Package - Wsj.com

http://dailysignal.com/2009/02/12/true-cost-of-stimulus-327-trillion/

http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2009/02/a-sham-stimulus

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/08/30/cbo-stimulus-supports-2-9-million-jobs-today/

CBO: Obama stimulus may have cost as much as $4.1 million a job | AEIdeas

As Dems Borrowed From China, Their Stimulus Sent Jobs to China - National Republican Congressional Committee www.nrcc.org

A TRILLION DOLLAR DISASTER… CBO Confirms Obama-Pelosi Stimulus Damages Economy in Long Run | The Gateway Pundit


So much for my having made "Wild Assertions".

You devolve your argument in personal attacks, insults and barbs, and lie about the FACTS.

I'll let the rest of forum decide what to do with you...

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Apart from proof of being discredited, you only have shown that economists disagree -- hardly a stop the presses moment. Moreover, James Buchanan and Richard Wagner are hardly the final word in economics. Other economists, such as Krugman, Stiglitz and Romer -- as well as Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and many others affirm Keynesian thought.

What we learned from Keynes and John Richard Hicks, has actually held up very well in the latest economic crisis. To the extent that we have a crisis in macroeconomics as practiced, it comes from the way many economists chose to reject sensible macro. The truth is nearly the opposite: at least for those economists who didn’t forget Keynes, and understood the IS-LM model. Those economists actually had a very good run, successfully predicting the quiescence of interest rates despite huge budget deficits, the quiescence of inflation despite huge increases in the monetary base, and the adverse effects of harsh austerity policies.

As a response to the Great Depression, American Keynesians said, "We have inadequate demand. Increase government spending!" Almost immediately the economy of the 1930s reversed. So now we came into another great crisis, and again we wanted answers. What would reduce unemployment, and what would make it worse? What effects could we expect from a huge expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet? What about unprecedented peacetime budget deficits? What about austerity programs?

What we saw was that the people who reject Keynes and IS-LM predicting soaring inflation and high interest rates got it wrong, when the Keynesian argued that we had entered a liquidity trap, predicted little effect from the Fed's balance sheet expansion, certainly not an explosion of inflation; low interest rates despite government borrowing; severe adverse effects from austerity. And they were right – because in reality, using a "silly" little model is a lot more sophisticated than talking grandly about complexity, and then trying to make diagnoses with no explicit model at all.

To conclude then that Keynes is "discredited" when it was only the Keynesian economists of today who got it right during the latest crisis while the Austrian economists got it completely wrong, is breathtaking.

Now, onto you "disastrous economics of the Obama Administration." You should know that the Obama Administration has no effect on monetary policy. To the extent that any president has an effect on the economy, it is in fiscal policy only and that is shared with Congress, who has to pass the president's plan. What, exactly was the disaster? The economy, as measured by GDP, dropped 6-8% a year before Obama was President and employment was dropping by hundreds of thousands of workers per month. Almost immediately upon Obama's stimulus program taking hold, unemployment stopped falling and reversed. In addition, GDP rose.

If there is any criticism of the Obama stimulus, it is that he should have pushed for a bigger stimulus or a second stimulus, as Keynesian economists had argued.

To conclude that the policies of Obama created a disaster has no evidence to support it.
 
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