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The American Police State Is Here (The Bulwark)
ICE is about to eclipse the FBI as America's most important law enforcement agency. That's bad. Super-duper bad.Jonathan V. Last
1. ICE > Medicaid
While most people spent the budget fight fixated on health care policy, I suspect that in a year we will consider this legislation to be the moment that Trump created his own internal security apparatus: His goal is to have ICE supplant the FBI in national law enforcement.
This is a big deal. Because the FBI is a professionalized organization with strict standards and a well-defined mission while ICE is more or less a national brute squad.
The Trump administration realized that corrupting the FBI would be a tall order. So while they’re certainly trying to do that, they put most of their chips on a different number: Reinventing ICE as the primary instrument of internal state power.
To understand this transformation, we’ll have to talk about both budgets and culture.
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The FBI has long been the gold standard for law enforcement, worldwide. Why? It starts with the agents. If you want to be an FBI agent, you need a college degree and often a graduate degree, too. Lawyers, accountants, Ph.D.’s with language skills—those are your stereotypical FBI agents.
Then there’s the training. After being accepted to the FBI, new agents go to Quantico where they live, eat, and breathe training for twenty weeks. These aren’t forty-hour work weeks—it’s total immersion. Kind of like Basic Training in the Army. Except that Basic is only a ten-week course and the FBI keeps new agents for double that.
Finally, there’s the management structure. The FBI is nested within the Department of Justice, but it is a separate entity led by an independent director who in important respects operates outside the executive branch’s chain of command. While presidents nominate and the Senate confirms FBI directors, the position is not a normal political appointment—the FBI director is more like the chairman of the Fed. The director’s term is ten years, designed to span administrations, creating continuity and independence.
All of which combines to make the FBI as good as (or better than) any law enforcement organization anywhere in the world. And explains why it will be hard for Trump to corrupt.
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2. ICE Also Does Catering
Before we get to ICE, I want to level-set on the size of the FBI: Its annual budget typically lives around $11 billion, which supports 13,662 special agents, 3,215 intelligence analysts, and 20,435 professional staff. To give you a sense of scale, that’s about a quarter of the entire budget for the Department of Justice each year.
Okay, now let’s move on to ICE.
Unlike the FBI, ICE is a relatively new agency. It was created in 2003 in the post-9/11 rush to centralize various federal functions and nested under the new Department of Homeland Security. It was, like many of those initiatives, poorly conceived and grandiosely funded.
Up until last year, ICE operated with an annual budget of $8 billion supporting roughly 20,000 employees.
The BBB represents a step change: The operational budget for ICE is projected to go to $11.29 billion in 2026 with an additional $29.85 billion layered on top of that spread out over the next few years for personnel expansion and then another $45 billion for ICE to spend on detention facilities. To put that in perspective, ICE’s annualized budget won’t just be bigger than the FBI’s. It will be bigger than the budget of the Israeli military.
The goal is 10,000 new ICE agents in three years.2
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Within months, ICE will have twice as many agents as the FBI and will have its own huge and growing prison system (which it operates independently) as its masked and un-uniformed officers continue to snatch people off of the streets and mete out violence as they see fit.
These are competing law enforcement organizations. One of them is relatively committed to liberalism and the rule of law. The other is less scrupulous and more malleable.
And that’s the one which will be dominant in America just a few months from now.
What do you think is going to happen?"