• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

THANK YOU AGAIN, JOE.....

Alright, we know these numbers are greatly influenced by the dynamics of the pandemic.

But still, 'Best in the History of the country', is quite a feather in Joe's cap - even if some may want to place an asterisk after it.
 
Figures hugely fiddled with adjustments made to rig a headline .


In summary, while the markets had been trading for months on fake data when the BLS failed to catch up to covid reality, and was applying stale seasonal adjustments, they are doing so again today, only in the opposite direction with the BLS now overextending itself in the opposite direction, with a January seasonal adjustment that has never been greater!
So for those who feel like discounting the Seasonally Adjusted data, please do: the bizarre Seasonal Adjustment that created distortion and distorted the underlying trend for much of 2021 is back, only now it's in the other direction.
What is the take home message? It's two fold:
  • First, we can effectively ignore covid's effect going forward. As Southbay notes, "It would appear that COVID is no longer a brake on employment or on the economy" which is good news: the end of the artificial covid restrictions couldn't come too soon.
  • Second, while the January report was stellar, its all downhill from here, because "January's win is a loss for February payrolls" or put otherwise, this month's strong payrolls will come at a price: i) Seasonal Adjustment will unwind - reducing payrolls in future months and ii) Seasonal workers will be laid off, resulting in a roughly 100K downside to February and/or subsequent months.

See ZH for full analysis and comment .
Market rolling over with recession a later certainty .
 
Last edited:
All that good news is gonna make a bunch of conservatives cry.
 
Roadvirus said:
Higher gas prices!
Higher cost of everything!
Empty store shelves!

Well done, Joe!!
Click to expand...
It's ironic that people don't understand that the wage growth is directly correlated to a labor shortage and directly results in inflation. It's great that people are starting to go back to work, but we are still very far behind where we need to be.
 
Bullseye said:
Thank Trump - nothing Biden did created this. I notice you omit Biden's inflation. 7.9% I think it was; soon workers got a 2.2% cut in wages.
Click to expand...
???? Trump ended his pitiful term with the worst economy in history. Keep in mind that the longest monthly gain in jobs in U.S. History ENDED with Trump. As usual, a democrat has to fix things, and Biden is doing great.....
 
tshade said:
???? Trump ended his pitiful term with the worst economy in history. Keep in mind that the longest monthly gain in jobs in U.S. History ENDED with Trump
Click to expand...
And began within a month. The trend from late spring 2020 until today has been upward.
For instance here's the DJIA from the pandemic beginning
DJIA Apr20-apr021.png


How about employment - glad you asked

Screen Shot 2022-02-06 at 6.49.56 PM.webp

tshade said:
. As usual, a democrat has to fix things, and Biden is doing great.....
Click to expand...
Not really. Numbers are numbers. Trends are trends. The economy was trending up the day Biden took over and continued to do so. Biden used his typical plagiarism.
 
Bullseye said:
And began within a month. The trend from late spring 2020 until today has been upward.
For instance here's the DJIA from the pandemic beginning
View attachment 67373222
Since then (Biden time) it's been mostly sideways

Not really. Numbers are numbers. Trends are trends. The economy was trending up the day Biden took over and continued to do so. Biden used his typical plagiarism.
Click to expand...
DJIA is a shakey indicator of an economy......................................Jobs is it = Biden has it, just like Obama did
 
tshade said:
DJIA is a shakey indicator of an economy......................................Jobs is it = Biden has it, just like Obama did
Click to expand...
Nonsense DJIA is one of the prime leading economic indicators.
But if it's jobs you want:
Screen Shot 2022-02-06 at 6.49.56 PM.webp

Notice the skyrocket recovery and continuing upward momentum. Biden inherited a strong upward momentum and fortunately a couple of brave Democrat block him from FUBARing it.
Factoid It took Trump six months to get employment to 6.2 and trending down after a major catastrophe; it took Obama and Bidth almost 5 1/2 YEARS to reach that milestone.
 
Bullseye said:
Thank Trump - nothing Biden did created this. I notice you omit Biden's inflation. 7.9% I think it was; soon workers got a 2.2% cut in wages.
Click to expand...
Give me a break. Trump benefitted from an economic surge that started in Bush’s last year and continued thru Obama’s times. Biden benefits from an economy that awakened after a COVID slump. Little that presidents can do about the economy except to make the good times spread more evenly, ease the bad times, and promote long term growth.
 
Nickyjo said:
Give me a break. Trump benefitted from an economic surge that started in Bush’s last year and continued thru Obama’s times.
Click to expand...
What? I though you guys (bullshit) mantra was that Obama saved us from a depression. I see no numbers that would support your theory.
Nickyjo said:
Biden benefits from an economy that awakened after a COVID slump.
Click to expand...
Yep the economy took from Obama and pumped some life into.
Nickyjo said:
Little that presidents can do about the economy except to make the good times spread more evenly, ease the bad times, and promote long term growth.
Click to expand...
LOL, sure. :rolleyes: The economy booms when economic drivers - businesses, consumers, entrepreneurs and financiers see a government that's not obsessed with "making the rich pay their fair share" After eight yers of Obama those decision makers took charge and turned spectacular success. And when the pandemic hit they realized Trump was still there and working and keep things growing. And he dis. So well that even blundering Biden hasn't been able to FUBAR yet.
 
Last edited:
Bullseye said:
What? I though you guys (bullshit) mantra was that Obama saved us from a depression. I see no numbers that would support your theory.

Yep the economy took from Obama and pumped some life into.

LOL, sure. :rolleyes: The economy booms when economic drivers - businesses, consumers, entrepreneurs and financiers see a government that's not obsessed with "making the rich pay their fair share" After eight yers of Obama those decision makers took charge and turned spectacular success. And when the pandemic hit they realized Trump was still there and working and keep things growing. And he dis. So well that even blundering Biden hasn't been able to FUBAR yet.
Click to expand...
No, the economy benefits when workers -the people you neglected to mention - have more money. Think of the post WWII boom, brought about by good union jobs, supported by working class benefits to ease the pain of the flaws of capitalism. You endorse “trickle down,” I support “percolate up.” Making the rich pay their fair share seems to work with our allies, who have far better income distribution.
 
Bullseye said:
Nonsense DJIA is one of the prime leading economic indicators.
But if it's jobs you want:
View attachment 67373226

Notice the skyrocket recovery and continuing upward momentum. Biden inherited a strong upward momentum and fortunately a couple of brave Democrat block him from FUBARing it.
Factoid It took Trump six months to get employment to 6.2 and trending down after a major catastrophe; it took Obama and Bidth almost 5 1/2 YEARS to reach that milestone.
Click to expand...
Yeah--------Trump had a big on his line, then let it get away. Sorry---he screwed up. Trump destroyed the economy, just like Bush did in 2007. It always seems to take a Dem to fix things.......
 
Nickyjo said:
No, the economy benefits when workers -the people you neglected to mention - have more money.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Oppsie; workers count tool Mea culpa
Nickyjo said:
Think of the post WWII boom, brought about by good union jobs, supported by working class benefits to ease the pain of the flaws of capitalism.
Click to expand...
Actually it was brought about by America being the only country with a functioning economy to help the rest of the world rebuild.

Nickyjo said:
You endorse “trickle down,” I support “percolate up.” Making the rich pay their fair share seems to work with our allies, who have far better income distribution.
Click to expand...
Think is to percolate up the money has to have trickled down to those consumers. The rich pay far more than their fair share already.
 
tshade said:
Yeah--------Trump had a big on his line, then let it get away. Sorry---he screwed up. Trump destroyed the economy, just like Bush did in 2007. It always seems to take a Dem to fix things.......
Click to expand...
Pure bullshit. Bassackwards. Funny Obama never had a deficit below a trillion dollars until GOP took over the House. Conversely things went bad for Bush when Dems took over Congress..
 
Roadvirus said:
Higher gas prices!
Higher cost of everything!
Empty store shelves!

Well done, Joe!!
Click to expand...
Gas prices have nothing to do with the US president.

Inflation is global, as are supply chain issues.

And I haven't seen any empty shelves.
 
Bullseye said:
Yeah, Oppsie; workers count tool Mea culpa

Actually it was brought about by America being the only country with a functioning economy to help the rest of the world rebuild.


Think is to percolate up the money has to have trickled down to those consumers. The rich pay far more than their fair share already.
Click to expand...
They pay less here than in similar countries, and they just LOVE places like Texas with a regressive tax structure. Labor creates all wealth. Marx got one thing right.

You are partly right about the postwar boom. But we are talking two competing economic theories. No mystery why the GOP supports trickle down. If it works to help everyone, fine. If it doesn’t, at least their supporters get richer. No reason why democrats support percolate up. If it works to help everyone, fine. If it doesn’t, at least their supporters get richer. We are a class based society (did he really say THAT!?!?), - albeit complicated by race - though it is politically incorrect to suggest it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom