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Team Harris’ Path to Victory

Callen said:
That sure looks like a 3 point drop for Trump vs Harris compared to Trump vs Biden
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I have no idea what you are talking about. Right now in Florida, Harris's "average" polling is worse (by 2.2 points) against Trump than Biden's was.

I'm not sure you know what you are talking about and you've posted no data or links to explain your quote below. Even if we only look at the one Florida poll since Harris was determined to be the nominee, that poll is just the same as the last time Univ. of North Florida ran a Trump/Biden poll. I have no clue what 3-point drop you are now repeatedly talking about.

Callen said:
Not quite....you neglected to mention that is 3 points gain over where the race stood when it was a Biden/Trump match up. Also the battlegrounds are definitely moving in her favour in terms of favourability over Trump according to new Fox polling.
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gbg3 said:
I have no idea what you are talking about. Right now in Florida, Harris's "average" polling is worse (by 2.2 points) against Trump than Biden's was.

I'm not sure you know what you are talking about and you've posted no data or links to explain your quote below. Even if we only look at the one Florida poll since Harris was determined to be the nominee, that poll is just the same as the last time Univ. of North Florida ran a Trump/Biden poll. I have no clue what 3-point drop you are now repeatedly talking about.
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Your own link showed the most recent two polls Trump/Harris polls......a Fox polls showing Trump/Harris before Biden dropped out at -10 and then the U of North FL after he dropped out at Trump/Harris at -7. She has gained 3 points on Trump since becoming the presumptive nominee and that change was within a week of Biden dropping out and supporting her. Watch that momentum keep up.
 
Callen said:
That sure looks like a 3 point drop for Trump vs Harris compared to Trump vs Biden
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Oh my gosh, are you joking? You are taking two and only two entirely different pollsters and saying one has a bit different result than the other. Wow, that's so unusual that all pollsters don't come up with the same result. ;) Very meaningful, lol. The only way that would have meant anything is if the previous +10 poll had also been a Univ. of North Florida poll or if over many polls, her average was getting better and better. At least that might have been worthy of a mention.

About the only thing that is interesting about this limited polling so far is a look at a same pollster/same dates (Fox 13 Tampa) and notice that Biden did better against Trump by 4 points than Harris did - but Trump still had an outside the margin of error lead over either. Trump only beat Biden by 6 but he beat Harris by 10. At least there is some logic to making that comparison. But that was before she became the nominee, so we'll have to see some repeat polls since she became the nominee. From the very little we have so far, you might begin to guess that Harris could end up polling a bit worse than Biden in the state of Florida, but we'd need to watch her future polls from one pollster to the same pollster later and her overall trends to learn that information. For now, her average is a bit worse than Biden's was.

But you can keep dreaming that Dems have some reasonable chance in Florida in 2024. You seem to be the ONLY one with that dream, but you do you. It looks to me that FL has been trending quite red in recent years. There was some thread not long ago saying that voter registrations in FL have trended significantly red. I can't remember who the OP was, but the Rep registration increase has been sizable - something like a million more registered Reps than registered Dems. And I might be wrong about this part, but I think that all happened since DeSantis.
 
gbg3 said:
h my gosh, are you joking? You are taking two and only two entirely different pollsters and saying one has a bit different result than the other. Wow, that's so unusual that all pollsters don't come up with the same result. ;) Very meaningful, lol. The only way that would have meant anything is if the previous +10 poll had also been a Univ. of North Florida poll or if over many polls, her average was getting better and better. At least that might have been worthy of a mention.
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They are the only two FL polls that match up Harris and Trump before and after her becoming the nominee. Biden / Trump polls are no longer relevant. I'll watch in the future for you to only use comparisons of polls from the same pollster as the only valid comparisons.
gbg3 said:
But you can keep dreaming that Dems have some reasonable chance in Florida in 2024. You seem to be the ONLY one with that dream, but you do you.
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I have no dream that Dems have a reasonable chance in FL but I do think FL will surprise.
 
What an impressive and favorable shift for Team Harris in the Swing States:

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Trump cut short his interview with Black Journalists. Hard for Team Trump to put a positive spin on that!

JD Vance remains hampered by past comments, poor public speaking skills and his connection to the unpopular P2025.

Team Trump hoping to use Open Borders as a wedge issue, has nicknamed Harris as ‘The Border Czar’ and the worst Border Czar in history. Haha 🤣 Truthfully, the United States government does not have a ‘Border Czar’ position. Team Trump also hopes key voting contingencies never learn about or at least disregard the Bipartisan immigration-related legislation rejected by the House GOP majority.

Team Trump continues to lose ground; Team Harris continues to gain momentum.

Two states, NC(16) and GA(16), move out of Team Trump’s column, back into the Battle. Whoa 😳

The World waits for Team Harris to announce a running mate and for the DNC Convention.
 
Team Harris Running Mate Sweepstakes. Six finalists. Expect an announcement this week!

My choices in order: 1. Shapiro 2. Walz 3. Kelly 4. Buttigieg 5. Beshear 6. Pritzker.
 
Trippy Trekker said:
Team Harris Running Mate Sweepstakes. Six finalists. Expect an announcement this week!

My choices in order: 1. Shapiro 2. Walz 3. Kelly 4. Buttigieg 5. Beshear 6. Pritzker.
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It hinges on that.
 
Currently her odds of winning are about 50/50. Due to Americans preference for warm climates (the Sunbelt), Republicans enjoy a significant Electoral College advantage. Harris will need to win the popular vote by 6% to 8% to win the EC.
 
ALiberalModerate said:
Currently her odds of winning are about 50/50. Due to Americans preference for warm climates (the Sunbelt), Republicans enjoy a significant Electoral College advantage. Harris will need to win the popular vote by 6% to 8% to win the EC.
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I feel more optimistic than you.

IMO, Team Harris needs to focus on the EV math, with little to no regard on the popular vote.
 
ALiberalModerate said:
Currently her odds of winning are about 50/50. Due to Americans preference for warm climates (the Sunbelt), Republicans enjoy a significant Electoral College advantage. Harris will need to win the popular vote by 6% to 8% to win the EC.
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I think her VP choice, the swing States blitz followed by the convention will give her a huge boost which we did not see with Trump. I honestly believe the arrogance and assumption by Trump that he would anhilate Biden has left him flat footed and struggling. From the git go he has not had the ground game in place. Now it's biting him big time....the GOP is quaking in their boots
 
Callen said:
I think her VP choice, the swing States blitz followed by the convention will give her a huge boost which we did not see with Trump. I honestly believe the arrogance and assumption by Trump that he would anhilate Biden has left him flat footed and struggling. From the git go he has not had the ground game in place. Now it's biting him big time....the GOP is quaking in their boots
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I have posted in another thread in this forum on the 2024 election. I'll bump this one too.

It's not intended to be a "Well you sure blew that one" type of revitalization.

Instead, as you've posted several things in quote, I have to ask if we know they turned out to be "not enough"?

Please resist the urge to do the usual name callling of things like Fox News.
 
Callen said:
From the git go he has not had the ground game in place.
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One of my questions is "Is the ground game over rated?" or is this a special case ?

We know TPUSA got involved (and are claiming credit for victories in places like Arizona), but I have to wonder.
 
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